Chase 2009 - Day 2 Tx And Ok

[Nick F]

Quite a large area under the slight risk today across TX and OK, though intial thoughts draw me towards west central to N Texas for a chase target (W and NW of DFW) - maybe moving NE towards S-central Oklahoma. This area shows highest CAPE values and dew points on model output, ahead of the front moving down from the NW:

0-3km helicity:

Will update at around lunch time before the team get up and see what's going on and where the US chasers on the forums seem to be headed.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT MON APR 27 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS

VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A CHANGE TODAY

AS SWLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TRANSITION TO MORE WSWLY FLOW

FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. THIS CHANGE WILL

OCCUR AS A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ENEWD FROM THE

CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE MID MO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE

GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED

ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES

WILL TRACK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND ALSO INTO THE SRN PLAINS

AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...AT 12Z...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

SSWWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NRN MO TO WRN OK AND

THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD TOWARD

THE MID MS VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE FRONT

EXTENDING FROM WRN IL...CENTRAL MO...ERN/SRN OK TO WEST CENTRAL TX

BY 28/00Z. GREATER EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ACROSS

THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WAVE ATTENDANT TO CENTRAL ROCKIES TROUGH

IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SRN KS...

REACHING NERN MO BY 28/00Z.

MODELS SUGGEST CURRENT ONGOING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS/CONVECTIVE COMPLEX

OVER OK/KS TO IA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD AND EXTEND FROM ERN

KS TO ERN IA/WRN IL BY 12Z TODAY.

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

ALTHOUGH STRONGER SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE

MID MS VALLEY TODAY...30-40 KT SSWLY WINDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FROM

ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF A

SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL

MAINTAIN RICH MOISTURE INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS OK/TX WHERE

SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 60S...WHILE SIMILAR VALUES

SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM TX/OK AT 12Z TODAY WILL

SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/OZARKS REGION AIDING IN

DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NE OF THIS AREA.

GIVEN TIMING OF NRN MEXICO SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TX TOWARD

12Z TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY FORM DURING THE

12-15Z TIME FRAME FROM CENTRAL TX INTO SRN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OK.

THIS SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF WEAK

SURFACE BASED INHIBITION AT 12Z TODAY SUPPORTING SURFACE BASED

DEVELOPMENT SOON AFTER THE ONSET OF DIABATIC HEATING AND FORCING FOR

ASCENT WITH TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM CENTRAL TX TO ERN OK WILL

PROMOTE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN

ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD

INTO ERN OK/WRN AR AND E TX.

MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY

AFTERNOON WHERE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND EFFECTIVE BULK

SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE MULTICELL STORMS...A FEW

SEVERE.

[Nick F]

Think I'd still play with the area W and NW of DFW for storms today, this area suggested to have highest CAPE across the models ... helicity and shear values ok here too, though with only 5% risk of tornadoes it will be luck to find one that produces. Main risk likely to be large hail due to the high CAPE and strong wind gusts.

RUC updates for 21z tonight or 3pm CDT:

Think I'd target somewhere like Albany or Throckmorton, TX.

[Tom Lynch]

Think I'd still play with the area W and NW of DFW for storms today, this area suggested to have highest CAPE across the models ... helicity and shear values ok here too, though with only 5% risk of tornadoes it will be luck to find one that produces. Main risk likely to be large hail due to the high CAPE and strong wind gusts.

RUC updates for 21z tonight or 3pm CDT:

Think I'd target somewhere like Albany or Throckmorton, TX.

Hi There can you let everyone know that we are live streaming ATM 6.40am Monday27 April

Tom

[Nick F]

Hey Nice Tom and everyone, looks like its raining and lots of lightning - good storm???

[John Hanrahan]

Still a nice Little Wake Up Call here with Thunder and Lightning, all bodes well for later and Outflow boundaries.

Live Streaming picking up the Lightning but as it is getting lighter not for much longer.

Tom Lynch

Yes Nick another Core about to hit us

Edited April 27, 2009 by Christ I don't know

[SteveB]

Watching the live feed now, looks like a good lightning display going on.

Edited April 27, 2009 by SteveB

[John Hanrahan]

That Car you can see in the View Is Chase Car 1 :wub:

Even bigger than last years!

Have positioned the Car to now look South East as we have a Big Cell moving up from this South just about to skim our East.

This is Paul S - Bloody thing just woke me up

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

Edited April 27, 2009 by Christ I don't know

[Ross B]

Nice one, i wasn't expecting anything so early!

When did you get back to the hotel last night? I can't imagine you got much sleep :wub:

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Oh this is soooo exciting! I want sound too lolol. If its any consolation its raining here too. Although without the thunder. 8c means its bloody freezing! Whats the temp out there right now?

Edited April 27, 2009 by *Stormforce~beka*

[John Hanrahan]

Fair Play to Paul S

After the 10 hour flight we hit the road and drove 150 miles to about 15 Miles North of Witchita Falls and watched Tornado Warned Storms until 11pm (US Time) and got back to the Hotel at 1am (7am Uk Time) So we had been up 26 hours, now awoken to a Thunderstorm at 6am US Time.

The guests are extremely happy already and we have not even had a proper Chase Yet! That should be from about 9pm your time tonight.

John

Oh this is soooo exciting! I want sound too lolol. If its any consolation its raining here too. Although without the thunder. 8c means its bloody freezing! Whats the temp out there right now?

Hi Becca was 23c at 1am and now about 18c

Expecting highs in the Upper 20's today

[Stuart]

I am Watching the live feed at the mo lot of Lightning :wub:

[ANYWEATHER]

Glad you guys have had a safe journey and an early start to the chase. Streaming video seems to be working very well, looks like youre gonna be busy today looking forward to following the action!

Best Wishes IAN.

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys

Phew! I am cream crackered, but raring to go today!

After landing yesterday and getting the team some Lightning, today once this area of Thunderstorms has passed we will be making our way North West towards Witchita Falls area, Not much chance for Tornadoes today but could get some nice Structure Shots and possibly some large Hail in that area, good thing is we will be in the area for Chase Day 3 in the Southern Texas Panhandle and a bigger risk of Supercell Structure and Tornadoes tomorrow.

Will start a thread for Pat and some of the Others to post some Lightning pictures for you a little later, bit gutted at not leaving our Hotel until 6pm (US Time) For the High Risk but that was certainly a bonus last night and the Streaming worked a treat so expect some Live Streaming later on.

Regards

Paul S

[Ross B]

Good luck for today

p.s it's weird to see the outside of the hotel i might be staying in, in 10days on live stream :lol:

[dogs32]

saw some kick a*** storms here.... :lol:

sorry back on topic

hopefully put some pics up soon in a different thread Pauls going to set up....

Edited April 27, 2009 by dogs32

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Bugger off ... LOLOL

[morfius]

Make sure you do abandon your cameras in front of tornadoes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyKB_LjdHlg...fvst&fmt=18

[dogs32]

hi all.....John going to put some of my early morning pics up as Im having upload issues love storm chasing :lol:

thunder lightning here for hrs now....saw a evil storm last night...

these pics were taken a few hrs ago

last night the storm was scary....scud nearly touching the ground...was truly scary...winds being sucked into the storm

edit....tornado warning to the south of here...60 miles

THIS PIC IS FROM WIGAN WEATHER ...DANNY

Edited April 27, 2009 by dogs32

[tom_f123]

Nice pic!, glad you're enjoying it pat!. Was watching the live stream in the early of this morning, that cell looked vicious. I saw more lightning watching that for 30mins then i've seen in my life :lol:

Good luck for the rest of today

Tom

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Make sure you do abandon your cameras in front of tornadoes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyKB_LjdHlg...fvst&fmt=18

Oh the poor wee thing!!! :lol: Bless. How the hell did it not get blown away (camera not the cow lol)

[Roger J Smith]

Looking at Tuesday, warm sector sets up over eastern NM, and most of the TX panhandle likely to be under stratus with cool east winds (65-70 F), so best risk for severe storms tomorrow likely to be near southeast corner of NM and nearby parts of TX west of Midland. Could also be some severe storms central NM but don't suppose you want to go that far west.

Backing up to this afternoon and evening, the large complex of rain and thunderstorms moving slowly southeast will leave behind a weak frontal boundary separating two rather stable air masses, close to or just north of the Interstate from Mineral Wells to about Odessa, so there might be a slight risk later today of one or two isolated cells between Big Spring and Midland perhaps, but looks more like a staging day for tomorrow.

[Paul]

The stream is live at the moment as they're just leaving the hotel - nothing too exciting to watch storm wise right now, but maybe more exciting than neighbours or whatever else is on at the moment!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[Nick L]

The stream is live at the moment as they're just leaving the hotel - nothing too exciting to watch storm wise right now, but maybe more exciting than neighbours or whatever else is on at the moment!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

I think it's fantastic! And for free as well, can't complain!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The stream is live at the moment as they're just leaving the hotel - nothing too exciting to watch storm wise right now, but maybe more exciting than neighbours or whatever else is on at the moment!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

I can see some cloudy skies out of my window :lol:

[Paul]

We;ve setup a switch for the chasers, so whenever the stream is on they will set it and a banner will appear across all pages of the site (similar to when we have a weather alert - so not on forum pages)