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Chase 2009 Day 3 Discussion Tx Panhandle


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
Yeah.. I got munched by hail here last year... Not quite 3-4" but enough to dent the car bodywork quite bad :clap:

:)

drat, I always worry about the rental so try to be alert and run for clear air if no cover so far we have been lucky, I know sometimes yer just get caught then its a case of sod the car! lets keep alive, bad luck Gorky hope yer didnt get stung to hard at the rental.

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

low level tornadic shear looks good the further this thing moves east - I cant see the cell weakening atall - great hook echo on the one to the north a wee while back..

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Tornado warning on that cell still, TVS.

000

WFUS55 KABQ 282300

TORABQ

NMC047-282345-

/O.NEW.KABQ.TO.W.0004.090428T2300Z-090428T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

500 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 545 PM MDT

* AT 459 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF CONCHAS...OR ABOUT 33 MILES WEST OF TUCUMCARI...MOVING

EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

CONCHAS AROUND 520 PM MDT...

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Yeah.. I got munched by hail here last year... Not quite 3-4" but enough to dent the car bodywork quite bad :clap:

:)

wow, i bet it was fascinating but at the same time terrifying.

just been browsing youtube, have you seen this video of 2 tornados in North West Oklahoma (26th of this month).. I wonder what force the second (larger tornado is) on the scale.

Heres hoping paul and the gang on the storm chase can find us a beast to watch live :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

infact the northern supercell i think injested cooler inflow from that convective gunk below it just as it turned tornadic ... no sign of that for this one at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

LOL I see yer did run for the clear air!! well done chap, didnt look like much cover :-(

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

There was a highway overpass in the murk to the north but that would have meant driving into the baseball stuff up there... It's amazing how quickly you get out of the larger stuff though. Hail swaths can be so localised... I had the full works on the car as far as loss damage waivers and the like so didn't have a problem when I handed it back :clap:

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

Well they have stopped at least, so maybe they know something?

I CAN SEE A TORNADO IN THE DISTANCE!!!! (surely??!!)

Edited by Sno' problem
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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester
Well they have stopped at least, so maybe they know something?

I CAN SEE A TORNADO IN THE DISTANCE!!!! (surely??!!)

yeah - trying to work out why lol. They might be on that road running west into Roswell, and the storms now past there, so probably decided to stop, take a look, then follow the business end back .. its lost a bit of strength on radar, hopefully not because its moving out of the warmer inflow ..

Where you looking at that TN mate ? - theres something left of middle of the picture - not sure if its smoke or what though. you might be right though.

THe anvils 130 miles long now, stretching towards plainview, tx :clap: - my guess is this storm will invigorate now as it moves east, as long as not too much gunk gets ingested

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
yeah - trying to work out why lol. They might be on that road running west into Roswell, and the storms now past there, so probably decided to stop, take a look, then follow the business end back .. its lost a bit of strength on radar, hopefully not because its moving out of the warmer inflow ..

Where you looking at that TN mate ? - theres something left of middle of the picture - not sure if its smoke or what though. you might be right though.

THe anvils 130 miles long now, stretching towards plainview, tx :clap: - my guess is this storm will invigorate now as it moves east, as long as not too much gunk gets ingested

Yup, to the left as you say, but the streaming was poor. Looked pretty much like one though...Lived in Texas for a while and I have seen a couple in the distance that look similar, all depends how much debris gets involved as to how well you can see them sometimes.

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

It doesn't join the cloud that i can see? Probably smoke but hard to tell because its so far away.

Cars are driving away so i doubt it was a nado.

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester
It doesn't join the cloud that i can see? Probably smoke but hard to tell because its so far away.

Cars are driving away so i doubt it was a nado.

might have been a gustnado I supose

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

I wonder if the guys will head south onto that other cell near carlsbad? Too far?

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

that storms just collapsed in the space of about 10 miles :huh: - I wonder if the cell behind will pick up atall ?

probably Ross yeah - look to be on a heading for where they've booked in for the night - its probably too close to dark to head away from there any more -

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
I wonder if the guys will head south onto that other cell near carlsbad? Too far?

Looks that way. The shadow of the car in front is on the left, so they are definitely heading south at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

yeah good shout - thats a good looking storm too.. the short wave is meant to be moving in in the next few hours from what i can tell, so hopefully all hell will break loose :D Keep the camera on when you get back guys :huh:

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Latest visible satellite image, cells in the north are still going strong and also to the s/e

of New Mexico just passing Carlsbad.

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

Looking very interesting in front of them right now.

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

nice image ..

Thats the cell to be on by the looks of it - its about 60 miles from roswell - I asume they'll have to either core punch or more likely swing round to get on its SW side .. will be nice to follow it back to where they're staying though

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

Carlsbad looks to be getting a pasting right now.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

SPC have issued severe potential watch possible.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0723 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL-NW TX...PANHANDLE THROUGH

SOUTH-PLAINS...LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290023Z - 290300Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION ANY TIME THROUGH LATE

EVENING. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER LATE

AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS AREAS E OF WW 205...AND IN SOMEWHAT

SEPARATE REGIME FROM THAT PRIMARILY DRIVING THAT WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM LOWEST

PORTION PECOS VALLEY ENEWD OVER EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SRN HILL COUNTRY

-- BETWEEN JCT-SJT AND N OF AUS -- THEN EWD TO AREAS BETWEEN

CLL-TPL. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD ERRATICALLY THROUGH

EVENING...BENEATH BROAD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY LLJ. PRIND LLJ

WILL STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KT RANGE AFTER ABOUT 02Z AND VEER

SOMEWHAT...WITH STG/ELEVATED WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER

DISCUSSION AREA. THIS PROCESS SHOULD BOOST BOTH LOW LEVEL THETAE

AND LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING MUCAPE FROM ROUGHLY 1000

J/KG OVER PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION TO NEAR 2000 J/KG WHILE

MAINTAINING AT LEAST 2000 J/KG MUCAPE SWD INTO PORTIONS CONCHO

VALLEY AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. EVEN AFTER ADJUSTING FOR APPARENT

THERMAL SENSOR ERROR IN LOW LEVELS OF MAF RAOB THAT ARTIFICIALLY

BOOSTS BUOYANCY...MAF RAOB STILL SHOWS ML/MUCAPE IN 2000-2500 RANGE.

CONDITIONAL/SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS LATTER AREAS

BEFORE DUSK. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK...SO IS

SBCINH...AND ANY TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND STAY ROOTED WITHIN WARM

FRONTAL ZONE BEFORE DARK MAY EVOLVE INTO SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. MORE

PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS ELEVATED ABOVE

RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE LAYER FATHER NW ON EITHER SIDE OF CAPROCK

INTO PANHANDLE. PROFILER DATA AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST

EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES APCHG 50 KT FOR ANY SUCH

ACTIVITY...SUPPORTING ROTATION ALOFT AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2009

That cell just passing Carlsbad is now tornado warned.

000

WFUS54 KMAF 290034

TORMAF

NMC015-290100-

/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0019.090429T0034Z-090429T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

634 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 700 PM MDT

* AT 631 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SOUTH

CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF CARLSBAD...MOVING EAST

AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE

HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO... THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER

NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT

TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester
SPC have issued severe potential watch possible.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0723 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL-NW TX...PANHANDLE THROUGH

SOUTH-PLAINS...LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290023Z - 290300Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION ANY TIME THROUGH LATE

EVENING. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER LATE

AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS AREAS E OF WW 205...AND IN SOMEWHAT

SEPARATE REGIME FROM THAT PRIMARILY DRIVING THAT WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM LOWEST

PORTION PECOS VALLEY ENEWD OVER EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SRN HILL COUNTRY

-- BETWEEN JCT-SJT AND N OF AUS -- THEN EWD TO AREAS BETWEEN

CLL-TPL. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD ERRATICALLY THROUGH

EVENING...BENEATH BROAD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY LLJ. PRIND LLJ

WILL STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KT RANGE AFTER ABOUT 02Z AND VEER

SOMEWHAT...WITH STG/ELEVATED WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER

DISCUSSION AREA. THIS PROCESS SHOULD BOOST BOTH LOW LEVEL THETAE

AND LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING MUCAPE FROM ROUGHLY 1000

J/KG OVER PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION TO NEAR 2000 J/KG WHILE

MAINTAINING AT LEAST 2000 J/KG MUCAPE SWD INTO PORTIONS CONCHO

VALLEY AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. EVEN AFTER ADJUSTING FOR APPARENT

THERMAL SENSOR ERROR IN LOW LEVELS OF MAF RAOB THAT ARTIFICIALLY

BOOSTS BUOYANCY...MAF RAOB STILL SHOWS ML/MUCAPE IN 2000-2500 RANGE.

CONDITIONAL/SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS LATTER AREAS

BEFORE DUSK. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK...SO IS

SBCINH...AND ANY TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND STAY ROOTED WITHIN WARM

FRONTAL ZONE BEFORE DARK MAY EVOLVE INTO SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS. MORE

PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS ELEVATED ABOVE

RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE LAYER FATHER NW ON EITHER SIDE OF CAPROCK

INTO PANHANDLE. PROFILER DATA AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST

EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES APCHG 50 KT FOR ANY SUCH

ACTIVITY...SUPPORTING ROTATION ALOFT AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2009

haha. Ace. who needs sleep hey ... SPC mesoscale pages do show little moisture convergence, but the cap wont be a problem by the looks of things - good idea to get down this far, as this is where the terdnadoes will be going into the evening ...

Get on that storm!

who wants a coffee ? :huh:

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

Streaming seems to have gone. I just want to know where they are now.

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Posted
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland

LOL

Got suckered by the Roswell Storm and promply died when we got here, now gonna head back East towards the Hotel and paralell the Carlsbad Supercell, If it moves North East can take an Option to take a look when we near Brownfield.

Paul S

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