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Chase 2009 Day 4 Discussion - Tx Panhandle


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Current SPC Forecast Suggests Supercells Capable along Along the Dryline with Up to 2,000 Cape, No mention of Torndoes but a 30% Risk on the Day 2 at the Moment for Severe Weather, looks like possibilities of Bow Echoes so some Structure shots could be nice for once as the Low level Cloud these last few days has been dreadful.

    post-24-1240984874_thumb.png

    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0317 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

    VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL

    PLAINS AREAS...

    CORRECTED FOR VALID DATE

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW

    CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL EJECT INTO THE NRN PLAINS

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND

    NEB. A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN

    ROCKIES FROM WHICH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EJECT INTO THE

    PLAINS. EARLY WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE

    MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH NRN OK/KS. THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT

    WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE

    DAY...THOUGH NWD PROGRESS COULD BE DELAYED BY PRESENCE OF ONGOING

    CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT.

    ...SRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AREAS...

    AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND TIMING OF IMPULSES EJECTING INTO THE

    PLAINS CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS AND

    POSSIBLY A MCS OR TWO MAY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS

    A PORTION OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION

    AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET. SOME

    THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST WITH THE EARLY ACTIVITY.

    MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD

    THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY

    AND HELP TO MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL GRADUALLY VEER AS

    THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD SUSTAIN EARLY

    STORMS EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION

    POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WARM

    CONVEYOR BELT...BUT EVEN MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD

    PROMOTE STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN

    WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FROM CNTRL TX

    NWD INTO OK WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THREAT OF

    SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS

    ACTIVITY REMAINS CONDITIONAL DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF A MARGINAL

    THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MID LEVEL FLOW AND BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY

    BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS KS BETWEEN FASTER NRN STREAM FLOW AND SRN

    STREAM IMPULSE.

    IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL

    DEVELOP FARTHER WEST FROM THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE

    STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS.

    POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG

    DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX.

    BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL

    STRUCTURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR.

    ISOLATED SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS NEB AS THE

    MOIST WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS NWD. OTHER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

    ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE

    SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    My early thoughts would be to head N and NE later today to be just east of the Cap Rock Escarpment and see what fires in this area - say around Turkey, TX ... you'll have the benefit of some upslope ascent of warm moist air being east of the dryline, higher CAPE values and better helicity values (according to WRF) to increase tornado potential. WRF even shows a dryline bulge around and just east of Plainview - though how likely it will pan out like that and how far east the DL will advance is anyones guess as the models vary.

    00z Thurs WRF Tds and ADDS sfc progs:

    post-1052-1240987153_thumb.pngpost-1052-1240987174_thumb.png

    00z Thurs SBCAPE:

    post-1052-1240987261_thumb.png

    00z Thurs WRF 0-3km and 0-1km helicity:

    post-1052-1240987344_thumb.pngpost-1052-1240987355_thumb.png

    Will hopefully update my thoughts on a possible target area later ...

    Today's prospects now in the day 1 outlook, threat of isolated early evening tornadoes as the low-level jet cranks up:

    post-1052-1240987487_thumb.png post-1052-1240987505_thumb.png post-1052-1240987537_thumb.png

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0100 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

    VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND

    SRN PLAINS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    CLOSED LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS A

    LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ID PER WATER

    VAPOR IMAGERY...BREAKS AWAY FROM THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACKS THROUGH

    THE NRN PLAINS. A STRONG BAND OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL

    ACCOMPANY THESE UPPER FEATURES...EXTENDING FROM NRN CA/ORE INTO THE

    NRN PLAINS. FARTHER S...A BROAD CORRIDOR OF WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL

    FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND TO THE

    ERN SEA BOARD. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW

    REGIME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING

    AND REACH THE ERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY 30/00Z.

    IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM

    EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH

    PLAINS EARLY TODAY AND THEN DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS

    ND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD

    EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE

    A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW IN WRN ND TO ERN SD TO IA.

    MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM VA TO OK AT THE START

    OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH NC TODAY...WITH THE

    PORTION OVER THE TN VALLEY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE WRN

    EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT REACHING THE

    LOWER MO VALLEY TO NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED

    TO MIX EWD TODAY AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM W TX NWD THROUGH WRN KS

    WHERE IT SHOULD INTERSECT THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NWRN

    KS/SWRN NEB.

    ...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

    MODELS SUGGEST ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE

    ONGOING AT 12Z TODAY ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO SRN KS/

    WRN HALF OF OK AND MUCH OF NRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD

    ACROSS THE REST OF THE SRN PLAINS AND WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING FOR

    ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE

    AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WAA ALONG 35-50 KT SLY LLJ WILL HELP TO

    MAINTAIN ACTIVITY AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LLJ AXIS

    TRANSLATING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH.

    SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN

    THE WAKE OF THE MORNING TSTM COMPLEX AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD AWAY

    FROM THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

    ATOP WRN EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN A NARROW

    CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE WRN PORTION

    OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST TSTM

    DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DUE TO MID

    LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING OVER THIS REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING

    PASSAGE OF THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE

    FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO

    40 KT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS

    AFTERNOON FROM W TX/WRN OK TO WRN KS. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING

    THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT... BUT AN INCREASING SLY

    LLJ DURING THE EARLY EVENING WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR

    SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

    WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

    FARTHER N...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NRN WARM FRONT WHERE IT

    EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH SERN SD/NERN NEB/FAR NWRN IA. A 40-50 KT SSWLY

    LLJ WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN

    MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG SRN

    EXTENT OF STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR

    A FEW SEVERE TSTMS.

    FARTHER E...SURFACE HEATING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SRN PLAINS

    CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT MAY ACT TO

    PROMOTE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN A NWD SURGE OF

    SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE LLJ. HOWEVER...

    WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM AR/MO TO ERN KS/OK WILL LIMIT THE

    DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. DESPITE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER

    SHEAR EXPECTED OVER AR AND NERN KS...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER

    THREAT SHOULD BE LOW.

    ..PETERS/GARNER.. 04/29/2009

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    I still favour a drive NE for the team into the SE Texas Panhandle, say around Matador/Paducah, TX up towards the Hwy 287. This provided the cloud clears in wake of the MCS trundling NE across Oklahoma now. Cloud cover could again be stubborn, but hopefully not as much as yesterday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    I still favour a drive NE for the team into the SE Texas Panhandle, say around Matador/Paducah, TX up towards the Hwy 287. This provided the cloud clears in wake of the MCS trundling NE across Oklahoma now. Cloud cover could again be stubborn, but hopefully not as much as yesterday!

    It is so difficult to tell how much cloud is lying in the wake of the Oklahoman MCS until daybreak. Fingers crossed for the team that it clears by the time they arise. The water vapour sat image seems to suggest a dryer area over west TX. Lets hope it isn't hiding low level stratus.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Yes

    As Paul says 9am here now and getting Sorted for today, as Nick says a short drive North and East to be in the 10 percent Tornado Risk box as per the SPC

    As others have said lets hope we get sufficient Clearing of skies to get on some Discrete Supercells today.

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    Yes

    As Paul says 9am here now and getting Sorted for today, as Nick says a short drive North and East to be in the 10 percent Tornado Risk box as per the SPC

    As others have said lets hope we get sufficient Clearing of skies to get on some Discrete Supercells today.

    Paul S

    Any idea on the target zone for today Paul? Where are you at the moment? Haven't had a look at the charts today so far but I would of picked out Wichita Falls to Denton as a good zone last night and I'm guessing that probably still stands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    Any idea on the target zone for today Paul? Where are you at the moment? Haven't had a look at the charts today so far but I would of picked out Wichita Falls to Denton as a good zone last night and I'm guessing that probably still stands.

    Hi there

    Have just done a 45 Second Video Clip which will be Uploaded in a little while on todays Chase Target and What we might expect.

    Currently in Brownfield just SW Of Lubbock and am Initailly targeting a line just East of the Caprock from Childress down to Turkey down to Matador and Guthrie, Dryline on 2 Seperate Models Differ with one further West of I27 And the other Just East of the Caprock, It is all about Outflow Boundaries today, And any Discrete Supercell that can ride the Boundary has the Chance to produce Tornadoes.

    Cheers

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I have the feeling that today will produce much better chase conditions. Your target sounds good to me, although it may become a case of multiple opportunities later on. Once the MCS moves a little further east and settles down, new frontal dynamics will begin to develop over north and west Texas. The moist air has not really been moved east by last night's events, as evidenced by high dew points as far west as Roswell to Fort Stockton TX. But winds at Guad Pass have switched to west which is one good sign.

    Would expect some development in your target area, and also west of Lubbock from a developing boundary that may push the dry line into the western third of the TX panhandle. There could also be severe storms a little further south and west around Big Spring, San Angelo and Brownwood.

    No doubt it's going to be a case of waiting to see which of these three clusters produces good chase material and if not the one you're in now, the other two are reachable. Good luck today; at least with the more westerly flow setting up there should be less stable cloud around.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Latest visible satellite images.

    Cloud seems to be thinning and already some clear areas are appearing

    in the far west.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Updated SPC forecast.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1118 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

    VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND

    CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS AR...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    BROAD BAND OF LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE

    PLNS...S AND E OF ELONGATING UPR LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS.

    THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP E INTO THE NRN PLNS TONIGHT/EARLY THU AS

    STRONG SPEED MAX NOW ENTERING THE NRN GRT BASIN CONTINUES ENE INTO

    WY AND THE DAKOTAS. FARTHER S...A SPEED MAX IN THE WEAKER SRN

    STREAM...NOW OVER NW MEXICO/SRN AZ...SHOULD REACH WRN/CNTRL TX BY

    EVE...AND LA/AR EARLY THU.

    ...SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS AR...

    A RICH GULF AIR MASS IS FEEDING THE LARGE MCS CURRENTLY OVER OK AND

    THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR AT

    LEAST SEVERE WINDS ON ITS LEADING SQUALL LINE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

    GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF

    AR CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL

    OF THE MCS. ALTHOUGH THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN

    FURTHER W WHERE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING THE WILL DEVELOP COLD

    POOL WILL DRIVE THE SQUALL LINE EWD... THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE

    SEVERE RISK EWD ACROSS AR TO MS RIVER VALLEY.

    IN THE WAKE OF MCS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL WWD ACROSS NRN TX

    AND BE FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH

    SUFFICIENT HEATING E OF DRY LINE ACROSS WRN TX THE AIR MASS BECOMES

    VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT

    IS QUESTIONABLE IN WAKE OF THE MCS...VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED

    WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF

    SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST ISOLATED

    TORNADOES. MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE LIKELY GIVEN LACK OF ANY

    PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...HOWEVER UPPER SPEED MAX DOES PROVIDE

    HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DISCRETE STORMS DO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR

    LONGER LASTING SUPERCELLS THAT WOULD LIKELY INITIATE VICINITY OLD

    OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS ALONG DRY LINE IN FAR W TX AND

    CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Appears from the meso analysis that the outflow boundary from last nights MCS is oriented east/west through Cottle county, and likely responsible for all the junky convection east of there. Not sure if I would play this boundary or wait to see if another one forms as this convection moves off, but I would like to be in this general area. Paducah would be my virtual chase starting location, but I think today you are going to have to be very mobile and look for suttle wind shifts in to root out the outflow boundaries which will make or break today.

    Edit:

    The boundary actually shows up really nicely when you animate the radar from the Frderick Site, and is actually a whole county south than where I expected. Cells forming NE of lubbock should be passing the boundary in a couple of hours. I'd hope that a few more cells cross the boundary further west though where heating is udnerway and instability rising.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Currently in Plainview for Lunch and Fuel Stop at IHOP

    Going to head east on Highway 70 and head towards Matador and just East of the Dryline which we are picking up west of us here along the I27. The skies have Towers rising and falling at the moment, and it looks favourable for development within this cu field in a few hours

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    The 2 cells in Fisher and SCurry County definately look interesting for so early on. Wouldn't be surprised to see something out of them in an hour or so when they reach the boundary. Those are already a bit east of you guys so not much point in going after them though.

    I assume these have formed off another boundary as a third cell is quickly forming behind them. That boundary would be east-west about 3 counties south of you. Should convection continue firing south of you, it may impact the northern chase areas... Just something to keep an eye on!

    Agitated CU field North of you also on visible satellite with what looks like a tower going up around Palo Duro Canyon, south of Amarillo.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Conditions becoming very favourable for tornadic activity particulary in

    the vicinity of the boundary. SPC have a WW pending....

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 210...RESENT

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1240 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL

    800 PM CDT.

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

    GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

    AREAS.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

    MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF MIDLAND

    TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A

    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209...

    DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS

    ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH MLCAPES RISING TO 3000 J/KG

    THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-45KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE THE

    MOST LIKELY MODE. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL

    BECOME INCREASINGLY A THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

    Those cells you talk of Gorky have certainly 'took off' initiating around

    Big Spring already producing large hail nearly 3"...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    This is John here. Paul S has asked me to post that it looks like the chase is on as soon as we leave this garrage :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Blaina, Gwent
  • Location: Blaina, Gwent

    these guys look to be on the opposite side of the highway from the scout team that also stream live on tornadovideos.net, and also appear on discovery channel storm chasers. Wondering if they maybe talk and share opinions about what cells to chase?!?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Meso- discussion concerning severe potential..........WW possible.

    To far south for the team at present.

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0203 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 291903Z - 292000Z

    A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST S OF WW 210 WITHIN A VERY

    UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR

    APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY

    DEVELOP TOWARDS 21-22Z AND A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

    18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF

    RATON MESA WITH A DRYLINE HAVING RECENTLY MIXED ACROSS THE NM/TX

    BORDER INTO WRN TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TCU BECOMING

    INCREASINGLY AGITATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PECOS/NRN BREWSTER

    COUNTIES. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED BETWEEN THESE BUILDUPS AND

    STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT EXTENDS ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH MLCAPES

    RISING TO BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. WITH MODERATELY STRONG SRN

    STREAM MID-LEVEL WLYS AND A VEERED KINEMATIC PROFILE...RAPID

    SUPERCELL EVOLUTION WOULD LIKELY TAKE PLACE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND

    ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE

    COVERAGE APPEARS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST LARGE-SCALE

    ASCENT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE. PRIMARY FORCING

    MECHANISM APPEARING TO BE UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WHICH MAY BE

    SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION TO OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

    I saw one tower go up and collapse on sattelite when it hit that ofb - looks like the teams in prime position there - my guess is things will spark off near childress pretty soon ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

    not sure where they are but is that a cell going uo right of camera there? - gr3 shows precip just east of Matador .. probably just me knee jurking to the radar though lol

    Edit: yeah it is - cell going up just east of matador, in motley county - id imagine 20 miles + from where they are now

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