Chase 2009 Day 4 Discussion - Tx Panhandle

[Paul Sherman]

Current SPC Forecast Suggests Supercells Capable along Along the Dryline with Up to 2,000 Cape, No mention of Torndoes but a 30% Risk on the Day 2 at the Moment for Severe Weather, looks like possibilities of Bow Echoes so some Structure shots could be nice for once as the Low level Cloud these last few days has been dreadful.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0317 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL

PLAINS AREAS...

CORRECTED FOR VALID DATE

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW

CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL EJECT INTO THE NRN PLAINS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND

NEB. A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN

ROCKIES FROM WHICH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EJECT INTO THE

PLAINS. EARLY WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE

MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH NRN OK/KS. THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT

WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE

DAY...THOUGH NWD PROGRESS COULD BE DELAYED BY PRESENCE OF ONGOING

CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...SRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AREAS...

AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND TIMING OF IMPULSES EJECTING INTO THE

PLAINS CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE THIS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS AND

POSSIBLY A MCS OR TWO MAY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS

A PORTION OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION

AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET. SOME

THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST WITH THE EARLY ACTIVITY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD

THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY

AND HELP TO MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL GRADUALLY VEER AS

THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD SUSTAIN EARLY

STORMS EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION

POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WARM

CONVEYOR BELT...BUT EVEN MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD

PROMOTE STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN

WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FROM CNTRL TX

NWD INTO OK WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THREAT OF

SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS

ACTIVITY REMAINS CONDITIONAL DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF A MARGINAL

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MID LEVEL FLOW AND BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY

BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS KS BETWEEN FASTER NRN STREAM FLOW AND SRN

STREAM IMPULSE.

IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL

DEVELOP FARTHER WEST FROM THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE

STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS.

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG

DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX.

BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS NEB AS THE

MOIST WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS NWD. OTHER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE

SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB OVERNIGHT.

[Nick F]

My early thoughts would be to head N and NE later today to be just east of the Cap Rock Escarpment and see what fires in this area - say around Turkey, TX ... you'll have the benefit of some upslope ascent of warm moist air being east of the dryline, higher CAPE values and better helicity values (according to WRF) to increase tornado potential. WRF even shows a dryline bulge around and just east of Plainview - though how likely it will pan out like that and how far east the DL will advance is anyones guess as the models vary.

00z Thurs WRF Tds and ADDS sfc progs:

00z Thurs SBCAPE:

00z Thurs WRF 0-3km and 0-1km helicity:

Will hopefully update my thoughts on a possible target area later ...

Today's prospects now in the day 1 outlook, threat of isolated early evening tornadoes as the low-level jet cranks up:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND

SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS A

LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ID PER WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY...BREAKS AWAY FROM THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACKS THROUGH

THE NRN PLAINS. A STRONG BAND OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL

ACCOMPANY THESE UPPER FEATURES...EXTENDING FROM NRN CA/ORE INTO THE

NRN PLAINS. FARTHER S...A BROAD CORRIDOR OF WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL

FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND TO THE

ERN SEA BOARD. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW

REGIME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING

AND REACH THE ERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY 30/00Z.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM

EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH

PLAINS EARLY TODAY AND THEN DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS

ND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD

EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW IN WRN ND TO ERN SD TO IA.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM VA TO OK AT THE START

OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH NC TODAY...WITH THE

PORTION OVER THE TN VALLEY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE WRN

EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT REACHING THE

LOWER MO VALLEY TO NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED

TO MIX EWD TODAY AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM W TX NWD THROUGH WRN KS

WHERE IT SHOULD INTERSECT THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NWRN

KS/SWRN NEB.

...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

MODELS SUGGEST ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE

ONGOING AT 12Z TODAY ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO SRN KS/

WRN HALF OF OK AND MUCH OF NRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD

ACROSS THE REST OF THE SRN PLAINS AND WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING FOR

ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE

AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WAA ALONG 35-50 KT SLY LLJ WILL HELP TO

MAINTAIN ACTIVITY AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LLJ AXIS

TRANSLATING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH.

SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN

THE WAKE OF THE MORNING TSTM COMPLEX AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD AWAY

FROM THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

ATOP WRN EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN A NARROW

CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE WRN PORTION

OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST TSTM

DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DUE TO MID

LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING OVER THIS REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING

PASSAGE OF THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE

FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO

40 KT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS

AFTERNOON FROM W TX/WRN OK TO WRN KS. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING

THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT... BUT AN INCREASING SLY

LLJ DURING THE EARLY EVENING WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR

SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FARTHER N...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NRN WARM FRONT WHERE IT

EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH SERN SD/NERN NEB/FAR NWRN IA. A 40-50 KT SSWLY

LLJ WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN

MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG SRN

EXTENT OF STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR

A FEW SEVERE TSTMS.

FARTHER E...SURFACE HEATING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SRN PLAINS

CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT MAY ACT TO

PROMOTE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN A NWD SURGE OF

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE LLJ. HOWEVER...

WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM AR/MO TO ERN KS/OK WILL LIMIT THE

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. DESPITE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER

SHEAR EXPECTED OVER AR AND NERN KS...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER

THREAT SHOULD BE LOW.

..PETERS/GARNER.. 04/29/2009

[Nick F]

I still favour a drive NE for the team into the SE Texas Panhandle, say around Matador/Paducah, TX up towards the Hwy 287. This provided the cloud clears in wake of the MCS trundling NE across Oklahoma now. Cloud cover could again be stubborn, but hopefully not as much as yesterday!

[chionomaniac]

I still favour a drive NE for the team into the SE Texas Panhandle, say around Matador/Paducah, TX up towards the Hwy 287. This provided the cloud clears in wake of the MCS trundling NE across Oklahoma now. Cloud cover could again be stubborn, but hopefully not as much as yesterday!

It is so difficult to tell how much cloud is lying in the wake of the Oklahoman MCS until daybreak. Fingers crossed for the team that it clears by the time they arise. The water vapour sat image seems to suggest a dryer area over west TX. Lets hope it isn't hiding low level stratus.

[NW Leeds Russ]

Some big storms firing up towards Oklahoma City at the moment guys.

Are you tracking these??

[Paul]

That's an MCS which developed last night - it's just coming up to 8am out there at the moment, so they'll be up and about soon.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes

As Paul says 9am here now and getting Sorted for today, as Nick says a short drive North and East to be in the 10 percent Tornado Risk box as per the SPC

As others have said lets hope we get sufficient Clearing of skies to get on some Discrete Supercells today.

Paul S

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Yes

As Paul says 9am here now and getting Sorted for today, as Nick says a short drive North and East to be in the 10 percent Tornado Risk box as per the SPC

As others have said lets hope we get sufficient Clearing of skies to get on some Discrete Supercells today.

Paul S

Any idea on the target zone for today Paul? Where are you at the moment? Haven't had a look at the charts today so far but I would of picked out Wichita Falls to Denton as a good zone last night and I'm guessing that probably still stands.

[Paul Sherman]

Any idea on the target zone for today Paul? Where are you at the moment? Haven't had a look at the charts today so far but I would of picked out Wichita Falls to Denton as a good zone last night and I'm guessing that probably still stands.

Hi there

Have just done a 45 Second Video Clip which will be Uploaded in a little while on todays Chase Target and What we might expect.

Currently in Brownfield just SW Of Lubbock and am Initailly targeting a line just East of the Caprock from Childress down to Turkey down to Matador and Guthrie, Dryline on 2 Seperate Models Differ with one further West of I27 And the other Just East of the Caprock, It is all about Outflow Boundaries today, And any Discrete Supercell that can ride the Boundary has the Chance to produce Tornadoes.

Cheers

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

I have the feeling that today will produce much better chase conditions. Your target sounds good to me, although it may become a case of multiple opportunities later on. Once the MCS moves a little further east and settles down, new frontal dynamics will begin to develop over north and west Texas. The moist air has not really been moved east by last night's events, as evidenced by high dew points as far west as Roswell to Fort Stockton TX. But winds at Guad Pass have switched to west which is one good sign.

Would expect some development in your target area, and also west of Lubbock from a developing boundary that may push the dry line into the western third of the TX panhandle. There could also be severe storms a little further south and west around Big Spring, San Angelo and Brownwood.

No doubt it's going to be a case of waiting to see which of these three clusters produces good chase material and if not the one you're in now, the other two are reachable. Good luck today; at least with the more westerly flow setting up there should be less stable cloud around.

[NL]

Latest visible satellite images.

Cloud seems to be thinning and already some clear areas are appearing

in the far west.

[Paul]

You can view Paul's briefing here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

[Paul]

Live stream now online. Coverage in the region they're heading into is patchy again, but hopefully should be ok..

First glimpse of the sun too!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[NL]

Updated SPC forecast.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1118 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND

CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS AR...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD BAND OF LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE

PLNS...S AND E OF ELONGATING UPR LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS.

THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP E INTO THE NRN PLNS TONIGHT/EARLY THU AS

STRONG SPEED MAX NOW ENTERING THE NRN GRT BASIN CONTINUES ENE INTO

WY AND THE DAKOTAS. FARTHER S...A SPEED MAX IN THE WEAKER SRN

STREAM...NOW OVER NW MEXICO/SRN AZ...SHOULD REACH WRN/CNTRL TX BY

EVE...AND LA/AR EARLY THU.

...SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS AR...

A RICH GULF AIR MASS IS FEEDING THE LARGE MCS CURRENTLY OVER OK AND

THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR AT

LEAST SEVERE WINDS ON ITS LEADING SQUALL LINE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF

AR CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL

OF THE MCS. ALTHOUGH THE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN

FURTHER W WHERE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING THE WILL DEVELOP COLD

POOL WILL DRIVE THE SQUALL LINE EWD... THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE

SEVERE RISK EWD ACROSS AR TO MS RIVER VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF MCS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL WWD ACROSS NRN TX

AND BE FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH

SUFFICIENT HEATING E OF DRY LINE ACROSS WRN TX THE AIR MASS BECOMES

VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. WHILE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT

IS QUESTIONABLE IN WAKE OF THE MCS...VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED

WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF

SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST ISOLATED

TORNADOES. MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE LIKELY GIVEN LACK OF ANY

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL IMPULSE...HOWEVER UPPER SPEED MAX DOES PROVIDE

HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DISCRETE STORMS DO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR

LONGER LASTING SUPERCELLS THAT WOULD LIKELY INITIATE VICINITY OLD

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS ALONG DRY LINE IN FAR W TX AND

CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING.

[Gorky]

Appears from the meso analysis that the outflow boundary from last nights MCS is oriented east/west through Cottle county, and likely responsible for all the junky convection east of there. Not sure if I would play this boundary or wait to see if another one forms as this convection moves off, but I would like to be in this general area. Paducah would be my virtual chase starting location, but I think today you are going to have to be very mobile and look for suttle wind shifts in to root out the outflow boundaries which will make or break today.

Edit:

The boundary actually shows up really nicely when you animate the radar from the Frderick Site, and is actually a whole county south than where I expected. Cells forming NE of lubbock should be passing the boundary in a couple of hours. I'd hope that a few more cells cross the boundary further west though where heating is udnerway and instability rising.

[Paul Sherman]

Currently in Plainview for Lunch and Fuel Stop at IHOP

Going to head east on Highway 70 and head towards Matador and just East of the Dryline which we are picking up west of us here along the I27. The skies have Towers rising and falling at the moment, and it looks favourable for development within this cu field in a few hours

Paul S

[Gorky]

The 2 cells in Fisher and SCurry County definately look interesting for so early on. Wouldn't be surprised to see something out of them in an hour or so when they reach the boundary. Those are already a bit east of you guys so not much point in going after them though.

I assume these have formed off another boundary as a third cell is quickly forming behind them. That boundary would be east-west about 3 counties south of you. Should convection continue firing south of you, it may impact the northern chase areas... Just something to keep an eye on!

Agitated CU field North of you also on visible satellite with what looks like a tower going up around Palo Duro Canyon, south of Amarillo.

[NL]

Conditions becoming very favourable for tornadic activity particulary in

the vicinity of the boundary. SPC have a WW pending....

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 210...RESENT

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1240 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL

800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF MIDLAND

TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS

ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH MLCAPES RISING TO 3000 J/KG

THIS AFTERNOON AND 35-45KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE THE

MOST LIKELY MODE. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL

BECOME INCREASINGLY A THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

Those cells you talk of Gorky have certainly 'took off' initiating around

Big Spring already producing large hail nearly 3"...

[Paul Sherman]

This is John here. Paul S has asked me to post that it looks like the chase is on as soon as we leave this garrage

[leightonw890]

these guys look to be on the opposite side of the highway from the scout team that also stream live on tornadovideos.net, and also appear on discovery channel storm chasers. Wondering if they maybe talk and share opinions about what cells to chase?!?

[NL]

Meso- discussion concerning severe potential..........WW possible.

To far south for the team at present.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0203 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291903Z - 292000Z

A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST S OF WW 210 WITHIN A VERY

UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR

APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY

DEVELOP TOWARDS 21-22Z AND A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF

RATON MESA WITH A DRYLINE HAVING RECENTLY MIXED ACROSS THE NM/TX

BORDER INTO WRN TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TCU BECOMING

INCREASINGLY AGITATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PECOS/NRN BREWSTER

COUNTIES. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED BETWEEN THESE BUILDUPS AND

STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT EXTENDS ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH MLCAPES

RISING TO BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. WITH MODERATELY STRONG SRN

STREAM MID-LEVEL WLYS AND A VEERED KINEMATIC PROFILE...RAPID

SUPERCELL EVOLUTION WOULD LIKELY TAKE PLACE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND

ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE

COVERAGE APPEARS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST LARGE-SCALE

ASCENT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE. PRIMARY FORCING

MECHANISM APPEARING TO BE UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WHICH MAY BE

SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION TO OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING.

[Cookie]

so how are things looking tonight? better then last night?

[anvilhead]

I saw one tower go up and collapse on sattelite when it hit that ofb - looks like the teams in prime position there - my guess is things will spark off near childress pretty soon ...

[anvilhead]

not sure where they are but is that a cell going uo right of camera there? - gr3 shows precip just east of Matador .. probably just me knee jurking to the radar though lol

Edit: yeah it is - cell going up just east of matador, in motley county - id imagine 20 miles + from where they are now

[anvilhead]

grown from nothing to a 45 dbz cell with quarter inch hail in about 20 minutes! - ok im filling up this thread again - where is everyone ?