Chase 2009 Day 5 Discussion - Ok And Ks

[Nick F]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0513 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302213Z - 302345Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN

INITIATE IN NRN AND CNTRL OK. THE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE

AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF STORM INITIATION WITH WW

ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM

WOODWARD EXTENDING ESEWD TO NEAR GUTHRIE AND MUSKOGEE. NORTH OF THE

BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED AND THE RUC SUGGESTS

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. IN

SPITE OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...STORM INITIATION REMAINS

POSSIBLE SOMETIME FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING ESPECIALLY IF LOW-LEVEL

CONVERGENCE CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE. IF STORMS CAN

INITIATE...REGIONAL PROFILERS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SUGGEST ABOUT 40

KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EXISTS. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE

TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A

TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 04/30/2009

Can actually just make out a line of agitated Cu along outflow boundary and also an area across NW OK where Cu is growing more than elsewhere, good chance of a tornado if a supercell roots along the boundary where winds change direction/shear is greatest:

[John Hanrahan]

Okay MD Issued right over the top of us and Outflow Boundary now Visible on Sat with should interact with the Meso Low to our North West. So re-positioning North to get along the Outflow Boundary to our North. If Storms Initiate they could produce Large Hail and Tornadoes.

Going North about 50 miles

Paul S

[NL]

Sure is giving forecasters and chasers a challenge today..

a new MD for SW Oklahoma and NW Texas.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0536 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302236Z - 302330Z

CORRECTED FOR LOCATION

ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN OK

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR...STORMS WILL

LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE

WW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE

DRYLINE IN NWRN TX. ALTHOUGH VISUAL APPEARANCE OF THE CU AND CURRENT

MESOANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK CINH REMAINS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY ACT TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE

CAP...ALLOWING STORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE

RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND GENERAL RIDGING

ALOFT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME

ROOTED AT THE SURFACE AND BECOME SEVERE IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM NWLY BULK

SHEAR...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE

EXPECTED. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SHOULD

INITIATION APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT...A WW WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED

QUICKLY.

..HURLBUT.. 04/30/2009

[anvilhead]

cool. The ofb shows nicely on the KVNX site for anyone with gr3.

[anvilhead]

hoping that that outflow isnt too difused now and it'll give things a kick - that cu field south of weatherford still looks pretty agitated on the last sat sat frame - looks like the dry lines slowly retreating though

[Nick F]

Gonna be a late intiation today if at all, I imagine the towers are going up and just collapsing ('turkey towers') - due lack of strong UVV or forcing. Could do with perhaps some stronger convergence along the OFB - it doesn't quite seem to be doing the job atm. Plus we are past peak heating. Time will tell, but it's past 6.30pm there now ...

[anvilhead]

whats that on camera? - is that stratus, or a cu base going up

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Not really ideal today. Still I suppose you have the isolated risk to hold onto. Will some-thing pop off that is the under-lying question? I think best positioning right now would be 'Enid OK' way. If we can get some initiation we will be away - especially in that NW OK zone where wind shear and SREH is highest. As has already been mentioned, storms that develop here will be well anchored to the BL. I hope you get lucky tonight guys. Looking at the overall scenario in terms of severe thunderstorm potential and not so much tornadic risk you'd have to favour Wichita Falls way SW OK. As has already been mentioned the veering SW of the wind flow does not favour tornadoes should they develop in this zone. Are you guys on the Spotter Network?

[anvilhead]

check out thier video feed though TC if your not allready ...

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

check out thier video feed though TC if your not allready ...

Thanks Anvil. I have to say this is the first year where I've taken an active interest in the US storm scene and I'm addicted. It won't be long until I'll be out there chasing these babies. Perhaps next year. Until now I've followed almost every storm day in the 2009 calender on Severe Studios. An awesome site if you have not yet checked it out. I'm sure many of you will be familiar with the chasers on SS. Just watching the live feed now, great job guys. Fantastic that you're flying the flag for the UK storm enthusiasts it really is. A much more favourable day tomorrow that's for sure - not a bad dryline. Where would you target tomorrow Anvil, just out of interest? I have a fair idea where I would. Keep up the amazing work! You're doing us proud boys! Oh, and Girls ;0)

[anvilhead]

lol my feeds stoped. Does it break the cap? - has it allready ?

ok im filing up the thread once again. where is everyone ?

Thanks Anvil. I have to say this is the first year where I've taken an active interest in the US storm scene and I'm addicted. It won't be long until I'll be out there chasing these babies. Perhaps next year. Until now I've followed almost every storm day in the 2009 calender on Severe Studios. An awesome site if you have not yet checked it out. I'm sure many of you will be familiar with the chasers on SS. Just watching the live feed now, great job guys. Fantastic that you're flying the flag for the UK storm enthusiasts it really is. A much more favourable day tomorrow that's for sure - not a bad dryline. Where would you target tomorrow Anvil, just out of interest? I have a fair idea where I would. Keep up the amazing work! You're doing us proud boys! Oh, and Girls ;0)

Hey TC..

Yeah its adictive as hell isnt it - I saw my first live tornado last night on that garden city storm, and a six stacked plate meso. Yes im sure you'd love it out there, and you'd do well with your forecasting skill. I havent really looked at tomorrow - will take look and post my target zone -

:lol: Sam

[Cookie]

we have live feed

[Ross B]

lol my feeds stoped. Does it break the cap? - has it allready ?

ok im filing up the thread once again. where is everyone ?

Hey TC..

Yeah its adictive as hell isnt it - I saw my first live tornado last night on that garden city storm, and a six stacked plate meso. Yes im sure you'd love it out there, and you'd do well with your forecasting skill. I havent really looked at tomorrow - will take look and post my target zone -

:lol: Sam

I'm here but there isn't much to talk about yet

Last nights virtual chasing was amazing, 3 or 4 live tornadoes plus that amazing supercell structure. It's doing a good job of getting me very excited for next Friday!

[Cookie]

lol my feeds stoped. Does it break the cap? - has it allready ?

ok im filing up the thread once again. where is everyone ?

you have got to remember mate that most people can't stay up every night late. some nights it going to be after 1 or 2am before the action kicks off.

[NL]

Latest vis satellite image aint looking to pleasing i dont want to use the 'B' word

but with daylight quickly disappearing this is looking quite a possibility....

[Sno' problem]

you have got to remember mate that most people can't stay up every night late. some nights it going to be after 1 or 2am before the action kicks off.

Last night was stunning, but I don't think that things will be quite as good (or bad) out there today.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

you have got to remember mate that most people can't stay up every night late. some nights it going to be after 1 or 2am before the action kicks off.

Sadly I missed last night because my internet connection was down - courtesy of my Sky broadband box being faulty. All up and running again now though. Is there any archived video footage from last night, for those that missed it? I'd be surprised to see any storms pop up now to be honest. Perhaps we'll get lucky in and around that Enid zone, but peak SFC heating has been reached and gone and there's not a real forceful trigger mechanism. Marginal situations like this though can often spurn very discrete supercells, which are always the best. Especially when you get that pent up heat energy building at the SFC and a late late CAP break. Should one pop up I'm sure it'll thrive in an increasingly high sheared environment. Can't see it though unfortunately. :0(

[Ross B]

Sadly I missed last night because my internet connection was down - courtesy of my Sky broadband box being faulty. All up and running again now though. Is there any archived video footage from last night, for those that missed it? I'd be surprised to see any storms pop up now to be honest. Perhaps we'll get lucky in and around that Enid zone, but peak SFC heating has been reached and gone and there's not a real forceful trigger mechanism. Marginal situations like this though can often spurn very discrete supercells, which are always the best. Especially when you get that pent up heat energy building at the SFC and a late late CAP break. Should one pop up I'm sure it'll thrive in an increasingly high sheared environment. Can't see it though unfortunately. :0(

Look at the day 4 discussion topic, i took a few screencaps of the nado's and sueprcell. There is also 2 videos posted near the end

[Cookie]

Look at the day 4 discussion topic, i took a few screencaps of the nado's and sueprcell. There is also 2 videos posted near the end :lol:

thanks for posting both those videos mate

[anvilhead]

wow!

[NL]

A couple on http://www.tornadovideos.net/ David Drummond etc, Verne Carlson was in Garden City Kansas last night and he was right in the thick of things, here's his website, dont know if he's posted any new footage havent looked yet myself. http://www.stormchaserco.com/

[anvilhead]

good on you Paul your right next to the thing!!!

[Cookie]

live stream is good at the moment

[anvilhead]

thats going up at an incredible speed - if it can stay isolated with the cap in place it'll be a monster..

Hasnt even showed up on radar yet - thats explosive

[dave48]

thats going up at an incredible speed - if it can stay isolated with the cap in place it'll be a monster..

Hasnt even showed up on radar yet - thats explosive

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