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The Summer Forecast


johnholmes

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    link is below, as per model thread,

    tks Ewan!

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20090430.html

    the actual printed words before any media spin is in the link below

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creati...009/summer.html

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    interesting to read the comments so far

    one impressed with their recent predictions and one not impressed

    the winter one suggested rather above avge temps which was wrong-the coldest in most parts of the UK since 1995-6

    Spring we have no figures yet as it only officially ends at 2359 this evening

    their prediction was for

    UK precipitation is likely to be average or below average.

    Temperature

    UK temperatures for the rest of spring are likely to be either near or above average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

    It's definitely a good forecast for us. To their credit, I'm surprised at the extent to which the Met have stuck their necks out with particular mention to "barbecue summer" and "temperatures above 30C". Their seasonal forecasts usually err on the side of caution even if they do pick up on a trend.

    All I can assume is that their modelling must have produced a fairly high degree of certainty. Bring it on!

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Although the Mat Office's last 2 seasonal forecasts have been a bit off the mark, they generally do quite well. As such, I'm looking forward to an improvement on the last 2 summers - well, let's face it, it couldn't get much bloody worse B) !

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Jack

    I think you are mixing up what the Met O printed/said, see below from an ex boss of mine

    Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: "After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."

    with what the BBC said, which was

    The UK is "odds on for a barbecue summer", with no repeat of the washouts of the last two years, according to Met Office forecasters.

    rather different as it almost always is

    the score on their forecast accuracy is now 1 for and 2 against!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    Jack

    I think you are mixing up what the Met O printed/said, see below from an ex boss of mine

    Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: "After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."

    with what the BBC said, which was

    The UK is "odds on for a barbecue summer", with no repeat of the washouts of the last two years, according to Met Office forecasters.

    rather different as it almost always is

    the score on their forecast accuracy is now 1 for and 2 against!

    Yup the Beeb beefing it up again. You forgot the temps topping 30 C bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
    Jack

    I think you are mixing up what the Met O printed/said, see below from an ex boss of mine

    Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: "After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."

    with what the BBC said, which was

    The UK is "odds on for a barbecue summer", with no repeat of the washouts of the last two years, according to Met Office forecasters.

    rather different as it almost always is

    the score on their forecast accuracy is now 1 for and 2 against!

    John, I do my best to avoid the media hype so I obtained the information directly from the Met office site at the following page...

    Met Office

    As this forms part of the met office site, I presumed it was a standard press release. Please let me know if otherwise.

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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    Precipitation and temperature probabilities make for interesting interpretation:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...merrainfall.gif

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...temperature.gif

    .... all across the mid latitudes.. and tied into increasing angular momentum from a developing Nino.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    John, I do my best to avoid the media hype so I obtained the information directly from the Met office site at the following page...

    Met Office

    As this forms part of the met office site, I presumed it was a standard press release. Please let me know if otherwise.

    seems you are right Jack - I stand corrected

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    Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
    seems you are right Jack - I stand corrected

    hmmm once again i am sceptical of the met office's forecast, after the last winters not so inspiring forecast, though, this is their time to shine, and to prove us wrong. it is completely at odds with NW's forecast though, which is predicting a cooler july and august, and average june, rainfall wise. interesting to see what happens, though i am worried that payback time will arrive soon, as the weather has been suspiciously benign recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Have the BBC just done a jinx on this summer then we will have to see, must say they have been very poor in there last 3 seasonal forecasts.. so my faith in it isn't that strong, they quote there is a 35% chance or so it being wrong.. so although they are fairly confident quite rightly they can not be over confident.

    I think they have just used headline grabbing words to describe there forecast hot and dry for many means heatwave summer, which could be far from reality... so I think they have been exceptionally brave in using these two words.

    To be honest I'm not surprised with there forecast, to get a third summer on the trot as wet as the previous two summers would be an unprecedented event and you would have to at least go with an average rainfall pattern for this summer, but dry mmm not so sure about that.

    As for temps well if you listen closely to what they are saying perhaps 2 or 3 very warm/hot spells with 30 degrees recorded, preety much what I would expect in a good summer but nothing exceptional,..

    So I hope people are taking this forecast with a word of caution it does not necessarily mean heatwave conditions throughout... Love to be optimistic but like last winter I can see this forecast being downgraded throughout the summer as its realities come to the for - average UK summer for me I think... but yes much drier than the last 2 years with 30 degrees being recorded for many at least on one occassion probably the SE 2 or 3 times...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

    The Met Office were well off the mark with their winter equivalent of this forecast, although they got it spot on for Spring. So to be honest - who knows what will happen?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
    seems you are right Jack - I stand corrected

    Thanks John, in fact I commend the boldness of their forecast and lets hope they are correct, especially after the last couple of summers!

    The Met Office were well off the mark with their winter equivalent of this forecast, although they got it spot on for Spring. So to be honest - who knows what will happen?

    I didn’t think the met were that far out with their winter forecast, as I recall their winter forecast predicted it would be colder than recent years and more like a traditional ‘average’ winter with snowfall, which is what we had.

    Anyway, I can see the media really pumping the Met's summer forecast in tomorrows papers so let's have a competition to see who can predict their headlines. The Express usually like to ramp stories like this so I expect a page 1 or page 3 headline tomorrow as follows...

    "Summer 2009: Thousands to die as Britain bakes"

    Or

    "Summer 2009: Met office predict record breaking summer"

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    The Met Office were well off the mark with their winter equivalent of this forecast, although they got it spot on for Spring. So to be honest - who knows what will happen?

    I disagree that the Met Office have been spot on for Spring. In their original forecast issued late February, they forecasted temperatures to be close to or below average and this hasn't been the case. Only in this weeks update for May have they forecasted temperatures to be close to or above average.

    As for their Summer forecast, we'll have to see, although I expect this Summer to be somewhat warmer and drier than the last two. I'm also suprised that they mention the words 'barbecue' and '30C plus' as they never normally go into this sort of detail. If an El Nino event does develop, it's likely that this year will be another warm one overall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    I disagree that the Met Office have been spot on for Spring. In their original forecast issued late February, they forecasted temperatures to be close to or below average and this hasn't been the case. Only in this weeks update for May have they forecasted temperatures to be close to or above average.

    As for their Summer forecast, we'll have to see, although I expect this Summer to be somewhat warmer and drier than the last two. I'm also suprised that they mention the words 'barbecue' and '30C plus' as they never normally go into this sort of detail. If an El Nino event does develop, it's likely that this year will be another warm one overall.

    Given all the economic woes in recent months etc, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the government have tole the MET to give the forecast some media spin.. it does have that feel to it, which to be honest really does get my goat..

    I think they should have refrained from using the barbeque word.. if it all doesn't go to plan, how annoyed will the nations millions be now that the MET have got their hopes up, but hopefully we are using our trusted reserve, we know just how fickle our weather is and we will take each day as it comes..I am certainly not all of a sudden banking on a dry warm summer just because the Met Office think so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yep, the "barbecue" stuff does stink of dumbing down, and it also perhaps commits the BBC/MetO to a level of certainty, in the eyes of the watching public, that their forecast of warmth and near or below average rainfall doesn't necessarily tally with.

    For instance, the prediction, if accurate, could yield a hot dry sunny summer with at least one month having a long high-pressure spell with largely unbroken sunshine over most of the country. Or it could mean a modestly warm summer with slightly below average rainfall and close to average sunshine- the latter would be unlikely to fit the "barbecue" category, especially in northern Britain.

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