Typhoon Kujira

[Somerset Squall]

The first tropical storm of the West Pacific season has formed, over southern Luzon. Initial intensity is 35kts. Deep convection is persisting over the well defined LLC, and some banding features are evident in satellite imagery. 01W is making use of the low shear, good radial outflow and warm sea temperatures to further develop. 01W will remain practically stationary over the next day or so, as ridges to the north and south create competitive steering influences. Eventually, a trough will erode the northern ridge allowing the southern ridge to dominate the steering pattern sending 01W briskly east-northeastward. With increasing latitude, comes stronger shear and this will likely begin to weaken the system beyond 48hrs. Until then however, conditions are favourable for further intensification, and JTWC are forecasting a peak of 50kts before the upper level environment deteriorates.

01W is currently providing some very heavy rain to Luzon. These rains will take a while to subside due to the very slow initial movement forecast.

[Cookie]

thanks for the update mate

looking good

[Somerset Squall]

01W has intensified overnight, and has been named Kujira. Kujira is now a 45kt tropical storm, with much improved banding features wrapping into the healthy circulation. Kujira is feeling the benefits of low shear, good outflow and sea temperatures of around 28C which are supporting this continued development. Kujira is currently hovering just off the eastern coast of Luzon, where it is still providing heavy rains, but the storm should start slowly accelerating to the northeast through today. Forecast intensities have increased based on the quick strengthening, favourable upper level conditions and much improved satellite appearance. JMA and JTWC forecast a peak of 60kts, and I think Kujira has a shot at becoming stronger than that and perhaps developing into a minimal typhoon before strong shear takes hold. We shall see.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Kujira has continued to strengthen this afternoon. Intensity has been increased to 50kts. Kujira is developing a central dense overcast feature and some good banding features, indicative of a maturing storm. Excellent outflow, low shear and warm waters are promoting this intensification and I think it's quite likely Kujira will become a typhoon. Kujira has started to accelerate to the northeast, and eventually this will take the cyclone over cooler waters and higher shear (similar to what destroyed invest 95W) which will utimately cause weakening beyond 72hrs. Until then however, conditions are favourable for further intensification, and as I said I think it's quite likely Kujira will become a typhoon.

[Cookie]

doesn't appear to be much land interaction on its current course

[Somerset Squall]

doesn't appear to be much land interaction on its current course

Indeed, and for this reason, Kujira is now expected to become a pretty intense system.

Firstly, some sad news. Kujira (named Dante by PAGASA) killed 13 people in the Philippines when it stalled and caused life threatening, flooding rains. A further 9 are missing, and things may get worse as Chan-hom is expected to affect the area later this week:

Full story: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadl...Bicol-9-missing

Kujira is finally moving away from land. The storm has become a typhoon as I thought it would overnight, with an eye emerging in the central dense overcast feature. Intensity has been increased to 70kts, making Kujira a cat 1 on the SS scale. Kujira has another 48hrs to intensify before shear increases and waters cool, initiating extratropical transition. Currently, shear is very low, waters are toasty and Kujira has developed dual outflow channels, which may provide the fuel for some more rapid intensification. JTWC currently forecast Kujira to peak at 100kts, a cat 3, and Kujira does have the potential to perhaps get a little stronger than that. With tropical cyclones, future intensity forecasts are still very difficult so it will be a case of wait and see but it looks likely Kujira will be a biggie.

Latest satellite imagery shows the eye developing nicely:

[M'Lady]

Thread title changed as Kujira is now a typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Kujira has bombed this afternoon, and intensity is now 100kts, making the typhoon a cat 3 on the SS scale. Excellent outflow and very low shear has facilitated this very rapid development. Kujira is likely to become a cat 4 as favourable conditions persist for at least another 36hrs. The only places threated by Kujira are the small islands of Iwo To and Chichi Jima, which may see Kujira at it's strongest. Kujira is racing northeastwards so the islands shouldn't see an extended period of severe weather and it's not certain if Kujira will pass over these islands but the dangerous storm definitely needs watching.

[Somerset Squall]

Kujira continues to rapidly intensify, and is now a 115kt, cat 4 typhoon. Further intensification is likely. Kujira has a small central dense overcast feature with a very small eye, and the small size of Kujira is probably playing a role in just how quickly this typhoon is intensifying. Extratropical transition is expected to commence in 36hrs time as Kujira moves into colder waters and higher shear, but until then, this dangerous typhoon has oppurtunity to become stronger.

[Cookie]

thats more like it, proper stuff!

what a beast!

a couple of hours old but this shows how tight and compact this system is!

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

6.0 / 929.1mb/115.0kt

do you think we will get cat 5 before this system weakens?

Edited May 4, 2009 by cookie

[Cookie]

starting to weaken, I don't think it got to a cat 5

[Somerset Squall]

starting to weaken, I don't think it got to a cat 5

Indeed it didn't, but a good first storm nonetheless.

Kujira, as you said, is now weakening. Shear is increasing and waters are cooling on the fast northeast track. Intensity is reduced to 95kts, and further rapid weakening is forecast. Kujira may spin down as fast as it intensified. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin beyond 24hrs and will most likely be complete by 48hrs.

This would have been the perfect storm in my eyes if it wasn't for the deaths Kujira caused in the Philippines. It was certainly interesting yesterday watching the typhoon literally bomb in intensity before my eyes!

Current imagery shows Kujira still holding good structure despite the shear and a fairly well defined eye:

[Somerset Squall]

Kujira is refusing to give up. Despite the strong shear (around 30kts of it) and cool sea temps, the typhoon has re-intensified to 100kts, making it a cat 3 again. Very strong poleward outflow is helping sustain Kujira in the otherwise increasingly hostile environment. Kujira will succumb to this environment one way or another however, as extratropical transition is expected to begin in 18hrs, and now be complete by 36hrs time.

[Somerset Squall]

Kujira has been moving northeastwards at around 20kts, and has been under about 20kts of southwesterly shear. For this reason, Kujira managed to sustain a 100kt intensity for the last 12hrs, as the motion cancelled out the high shear. However, shear has further increased to about 50kts, and this has caused Kujira to begin weakening proper, with intensity now down at 85kts. Additionally, waters are now below 24C. This should force rapid extratropical transition which may be complete within the next 24hrs.

[Cookie]

This would have been the perfect storm in my eyes if it wasn't for the deaths Kujira caused in the Philippines. It was certainly interesting yesterday watching the typhoon literally bomb in intensity before my eyes!

agree with you thier, some aboustly stunning sat imagery really amazing!

[Cookie]

starting to weaken

Becoming extratropical