Chase 2009 Day 8 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

We will take the drive up Highway 287 from Decatur to Amarillo today (Sun 3rd May) and arrive at the Fabled Big Texan Restaurant. This will give us a Shot at Elevated Storms with Hail and Good Lightning Opportunities Tomorrow and will also take in a Visit to Greensburg for the Team to see how that Town is coping exactly 2 Years to the day of the EF5 Greensburg Tornado, there may even be a Memorial Service There tomorrow.

After tomorrow we then get into some More good Chances for Tornadic Storms over Oklahoma with my Favourite Set Up namely the Dryline and Warm Front Triple Point Set up.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0245 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING FROM

THE WRN U.S. TO THE MS VALLEY...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/

AMPLIFICATION OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVES ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z

NAM/GFS WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED INTO THE CENTRAL/

SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE

NAM/GFS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE SRN

PLAINS.

FARTHER N...THE DAY 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS

EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS MN/WI AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO

CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER ONTARIO.

...SRN PLAINS...

ELEVATED TSTMS/MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 3 ACROSS

MAINLY OK...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE

WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY

SHOULD SHIFT EWD THROUGH ERN OK TO AR AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY/

SEVERE THREAT AS THE LLJ DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE

TROUGH...50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS

KS/OK AND N TX TO AR BY AFTERNOON. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX

WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NWD FROM CENTRAL TX TO ALONG THE RED

RIVER VALLEY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX

EWD AND SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM WRN KS THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE

TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LIKELY LOCATED OVER

WRN N TX. MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR WITH

MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY

TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE

MOIST...WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MID-LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE TRIPLE

POINT SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE IN NRN TX...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT

POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING MCS

OVER OK.../ESPECIALLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE DRY LINE/.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50

KT/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS

AND A TORNADO THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME ACROSS

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS

FROM NRN TX INTO SRN/SERN OK. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER MCS

TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OK/N TX AND SPREAD EWD INTO

AR/SRN MO.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

SURFACE FRONT...ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MN/WI

TUESDAY...WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SLOWLY SWD

ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG AND

AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG

INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS

BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/ STRONG

WIND GUSTS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS IA SWWD TO CENTRAL

KS WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER

After that it looks like North West Flow for the remainder of Tour 1 Trip so it could be 9/10 Chase days which is unheard of.

Paul S

[Paul]

A couple of extra videos have been uploaded to the player today, a meet the team vid and some impressive lightning from inside the car filmed by Danny.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

The team will also be streaming live as they head up to Amarillo for those who want to see the sights!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Is that the way to Amarillo?

[Nick L]

Is that the way to Amarillo?

Someone had to say it :lol:

[Paul]

Lol, anyone remember this from stormchase 2008 with Michael Fish!

[MAF]

detailed forecast for Amarillo

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 71. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. South southeast wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

[Blackie]

Lol, anyone remember this from stormchase 2008 with Michael Fish!

I do indeed, Paul. Seems like only yesterday. Who needs Take That or Boyzone when you have NW's finest...?! :lol:

[MAF]

quite an active time out there right now

1 tornado reported McCalla Jefferson and unfortunately one fatality in strong winds in Laurel

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Wow just went onto google earth street view and went straight to the exact point where the chase team was on the live stream!

(I know, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz)

Edited May 3, 2009 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[SnowBear]

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...dair&uid=37

Reckon this guy will see summat soon, he is east side Birmingham AL, vid quality not brilliant but some mean looking skies

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...own&uid=265

In the same area

[Mammatus]

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...dair&uid=37

Reckon this guy will see summat soon, he is east side Birmingham AL, vid quality not brilliant but some mean looking skies

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...own&uid=265

In the same area

John Brown is on it. :lol: Some mean looking skies there.........

[Arron]

Some brutal looking skies on Johns live feed now :lol: Does the map of his location update automatically?

[MAF]

1855 UNK MARION PERRY AL 3263 8732 THOUSANDS OF TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY (BMX) :lol:

still lots of activity

[MAF]

Blimey!! 6 tornados reported now

1823 MCCALLA JEFFERSON AL 3335 8701 ON THE GROUND RIGHT NOW (BMX)

2004 SYLACAUGA TALLADEGA AL 3318 8626 UNCONFIRMED TORNADO...MULTIMPLE TREES DOWN AND UPROOTED. (BMX)

2008 WEAVER CALHOUN AL 3376 8581 911 OFFICE RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN WEAVER. (BMX)

2016 WEAVER CALHOUN AL 3376 8581 UNCONFIRMED TORNADO REPORT THROUGH 911 DISPATCH (BMX)

2040 1 SE MORGAN CITY MARSHALL AL 3446 8656 TORNADO REPORTED AT US 231 AND UNION GROVE RD. TREES WERE DOWNED BLOCKING THE ROAD. UPDATED LOCATION. (HUN)

2040 SE MORGAN CITY MORGAN AL 3447 8657 TORNADO REPORTED AT US 231 AND UNION GROVE RD. TREES WERE DOWNED BLOCKING THE ROAD. (HUN)

[Aunt Sally]

On our way to Amarillo and one of the team has bravely decided to do the 72oz challenge :o

Can you guess who it is?

There is a live web cam for the Big Texan if you want to watch!! As we are on the move we can't search for their website as our internet access is so slow!!!

Tammy

[Blackie]

On our way to Amarillo and one of the team has bravely decided to do the 72oz challenge :o

Can you guess who it is?

Good luck, Ian :o

[MAF]

Good luck, Ian :o

:o my thoughts too

[Paul]

http://www.bigtexan.com/

Is the website - Ian or maybe Pat???

[Nick L]

http://www.bigtexan.com/

Is the website - Ian or maybe Pat???

Yeah, I've found the webcam - give us a wave when you get there folks :o

Omg, according to that website, somebody managed to eat it all in 8 mins 52 secs, that is not normal!!

Edited May 3, 2009 by nick2702

[Sno' problem]

Are those the NW guys there now?

(How sad am I to be watching a webcam of a restaurant in Texas????)

EDIT: Must be...I sa a Danger Mouse T-shirt there. :o

Edited May 3, 2009 by Sno' problem

[MAF]

Are those the NW guys there now? (How sad am I to be watching a webcam of a restaurant in Texas????) EDIT: Must be...I sa a Danger Mouse T-shirt there. :o

:o

[Sno' problem]

I don't believe it! That bloke just managed it.

(think I need to get a life!) :o

Edited May 3, 2009 by Sno' problem

[MAF]

I don't believe it! That bloke just managed it. (think I need to get a life!) :o

yep, sure do :o

how long did it take him? (i need a life too)

[Paul]

Lol for anyone wondering, the webcam link can be found on this page

http://www.bigtexan.com/free72.html

The team are staying at the motel connected to the restaurant so are prob just getting themselves sorted out and will be down to eat later on!

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

Yeah that was John in the DangerMouse T Shirt :o

Btw whoever thought Ian is WRONG! He is doing it next week when Audmun is here!

Paul S