Current Enso Conditions

[Methuselah]

GW,

I don't think people are saying anything about AGW being a myth or whatever. It is purely the fact that you have insisted that the article says something that simply doesn't follow from the actual article.

Well, after having read it again, TWS; I can see that I also misread it. :lol:

[Iceberg]

A very quick update, I really need to post up some new graphs etc.

The monthly figure for ENSO from NOAA/NCEP has increased to 0.6 from 0.2.

This makes the last 3 month average now officially an EL Nino average being greater than 0.5.

It is also the joint largest increase in the ENSO figure recorded since 1950 which really shows how much warmer has happened in the Pacific.

On a weekly basis the warmer has stopped, whether this is temporary or not remains to be seen, however the model forecasts are that this is pause before further warming this month.

This wave pattern is very much inkeeping with how ENSO works, with Kelvin waves bringing in the warmer seas much as the waves on a beach will progressively get higher, retreat a little, then get higher again.

[chionomaniac]

The latest temperature El Nino soundings to my eye show a slight reduction in temps. I don't know how normal this is during El Ninos but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

The forecasts still suggest a moderate to strong El Nino:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images/nino34SSTMon.gif

But how accurate are these?

I have had a look at previous forecast verification results and the track record isn't great so it is probably a case of waiting and watching to see what occurs.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_verif/verif.html

c

[Thundery wintry showers]

My reading of it is that unless there's a dramatic swell in SSTs over the coming months, we're unlikely to see anything on the scale of 1998, and that might in turn help to prevent many global temperature records from being broken.

But I note Iceberg's post above about a possible further rise in SSTs later on.

[Iceberg]

A new Kelvin wave has developed in the pacific in the last week which *could* herald a period of further warming.

SST's have increased in a couple of sectors over the last week and stayed the same in a couple.

Heat content has gone down which is concerning for a prolonged El Nino, and is against my own thoughts.

However there is better agreement amongst the models both stats and dynamic to indicate a moderate strength El Nino lasting until Spring 2010.

NCEP CPC are still expecting this El Nino to strengthen particularly in Sept and Oct.

[Typhoon John]

It will be interesting to see what the effects are as the trade winds aren't especially favourable for El Nino development at the moment. Will this suppress the expected heating?

SOI has been moderately negative over the past week or so but it's hardly huge Nino territory. And looking at activity over the year so far you would expect some rebound in SOI values. Overall then the picture still looks like developing El Nino being pegged back to weak/possibly moderate due to unfavourable conditions. I'd see a continuation of this as a good sign for the upcoming Winter.

I suppose the bigger question is why such resistance to this El Nino? If we have seen a PDO shift is this a factor? We don't really have too much detail on the development of El Nino during -PDO phases; perhaps this is just the norm.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its interesting watching this El Nino episode. Cyclically its not due to be a big one and thus far it isn't heading that way. All but gone/diminishing quickly/never really took off come Dec is my call. In other words weak to moderate max then off she goes. I don't think winter will be affected.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

I agree with both of you in that it will be interesting.

I would say that strengthening was never really due to take place until Aug-Oct. But it will be nice to see what happens.

The trade winds have certaintly stopped it from strengthening much over the summer and they would need to weaken over the Autumn.

[Iceberg]

A new Kelvin wave has developed in the pacific in the last week which *could* herald a period of further warming.

SST's have increased in a couple of sectors over the last week and stayed the same in a couple.

Heat content has gone down which is concerning for a prolonged El Nino, and is against my own thoughts.

However there is better agreement amongst the models both stats and dynamic to indicate a moderate strength El Nino lasting until Spring 2010.

NCEP CPC are still expecting this El Nino to strengthen particularly in Sept and Oct.

Another update, weekly values have all increased this week, in association with the new Kelvin wave which has helped to push up SST's again.

Values are still below the moderate catergory though and we are still in a weak El Nino episode.

Values are expected to increase in Sept and Oct to moderate levels and the environment has become better for further warming. Ocean Heat extent has stabilised and is nolonger falling (it might well increase over the next week).

[Iceberg]

I thought it might be useful to plot the weekly zones from 1990 to show there movements to give a better understanding of what the actual figures mean.

There are two graphs

1 going back to 1990 (useful for historic comparisons)

2 going back to the start of 2009 to see how this current El Nino is doing.

A few quick points The official ENSO figures to judge an El Nino or a La Nina are taken from Zone 3.4

Zone 1+2 is much more variable is really isn't a good judge of what is going to happen.

Zones 3 and 3.4 are much closer in comparison.

Zone 4 tends to be lazy and much more stable, it's current value is actual quite high currently. It shows how unique the last La Nina really was in it's dip in 2007/2008. This was the second lowest La Nina in 20 years across the board and only matched by the 1998/99 event.

[MR EXTREMES]

I thought it might be useful to plot the weekly zones from 1990 to show there movements to give a better understanding of what the actual figures mean.

There are two graphs

1 going back to 1990 (useful for historic comparisons)

2 going back to the start of 2009 to see how this current El Nino is doing.

A few quick points The official ENSO figures to judge an El Nino or a La Nina are taken from Zone 3.4

Zone 1+2 is much more variable is really isn't a good judge of what is going to happen.

Zones 3 and 3.4 are much closer in comparison.

Zone 4 tends to be lazy and much more stable, it's current value is actual quite high currently. It shows how unique the last La Nina really was in it's dip in 2007/2008. This was the second lowest La Nina in 20 years across the board and only matched by the 1998/99 event.

oh well there goes uk winter hopes.

[Iceberg]

Not all bad news BB, here's the Jet stream patterns taken from NOAA.

IF the Atlantic Jet can push far enough south(France he hopes) then you get the Polar JS to influence alot of LP's, with colder cold sectors. Scotland can get significant Snow from these setups.

[Anti-Mild]

oh well there goes uk winter hopes.

Not necessarily. Yes El Nino is forecast to be moderate by the end of October,but IIRC it is forecasted to drop back to weak by year end.

And there is no guarantee that it will strengthen over the next couple of months.

[chionomaniac]

I thought it might be useful to plot the weekly zones from 1990 to show there movements to give a better understanding of what the actual figures mean.

There are two graphs

1 going back to 1990 (useful for historic comparisons)

2 going back to the start of 2009 to see how this current El Nino is doing.

A few quick points The official ENSO figures to judge an El Nino or a La Nina are taken from Zone 3.4

Zone 1+2 is much more variable is really isn't a good judge of what is going to happen.

Zones 3 and 3.4 are much closer in comparison.

Zone 4 tends to be lazy and much more stable, it's current value is actual quite high currently. It shows how unique the last La Nina really was in it's dip in 2007/2008. This was the second lowest La Nina in 20 years across the board and only matched by the 1998/99 event.

I have heard that El Ninos may be west or east based. Have you come across this before, Iceberg?

Is this one more likely to be west based, I wonder, and will this have an effect of slightly changing the orientation of the STJ as it leaves the Eastern seaboard? I think the NOAA jet stream pattern is for all el ninos in general and doesn't differentiate whether they are weak, moderate or strong, west or east based.

Also do you know which year has the closest analogue pattern to the present developing El Nino?

c

[Iceberg]

Chionomaniac, I am not sure that any year in the last 40 really matches what we have this year, I think this is supported by the stats models totally failing to pick this EL Nino up.

As Fred and Tamara keep saying we are also in a predominate PDO phase which might well effect things, potentially damping down the Pacific Jet and moving it further south.

I have heard of an east versus west ENSO split, sometimes Zone 1+2 plays goes positively mental others it barely responds and this has a big effect on S.America.

I really don't know which one will effect us more, but I have toyed with plotting the various zones(Zone 4 and 1+2) against global temperatures, CET and NAO to see if some kind of correlation exists.

Zone 3.4 when plotted shows a patchy relationship with both the NAO and CET (particularly during winter) depending on teh strength of the ENSO value.

Your right in that the picture is a generic El Nino, it shows that the Jet direction is less favourable during ENSO periods being SW to NE orintation, with a possibility of a Bartlett rather than a NW to SE orintation which we saw last winter, with the high bring placed in the mid atlantic.

I think it was the 2002 El Nino which didn't have the expected North America impact and they blamed it on a west based ENSO.

I think this ENSO is looking pretty balanced wrt east-west (at least in these early days)

[chionomaniac]

Thanks for the reply Iceberg.

If this El Nino doesn't get off the ground and stays weak then 51-52 may be the closest analogue. I would need to check PDO, QBO and solar min at that time to see if there are any other correlations.

c.

[Mr Maunder]

Looking back on his thread I see thater was much debate as to whether the start of a new solar cycle co-incided in an El Nino event. Well. looking through the ENSO records we have events in 1965/6, 1977/8, 1986/7 & 1997/8 all of which co-incide with the start of a solar cycle.

However in all of these events solar activity was actually increasing - whereas at the moment we have more of a flat line with little immediate prospect of any rise in activity. This solar cycle start looks different to anything we have had in the recent past.

The current El Nino seems to be a modest affair and is expected to peak around December time. It does not look, to me anyway, to be in any way comparable to the 1997/8 event. I would not get too excited!

Anyway, remember that an El Nino event results in the sea giving up heat to the atmosphere. If it is not replaced the sea gets colder! If this solar cycle is a dud then this what may happen. We'll soon find out.

MM

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Waht is the current ENSO state. To the naked eye it looks like it has floundered and has been floundering. My view has been and still is that come December it will be in decline and all but dead in the water.

BFTP

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Anyway, remember that an El Nino event results in the sea giving up heat to the atmosphere. If it is not replaced the sea gets colder! If this solar cycle is a dud then this what may happen. We'll soon find out.

MM

So when the solar cycle is at a nadir El Nino events will result in cold winters, but when the solar cycle is at apex El Nino events will result in warm winters, or no-change?

This data may be nothing more than noise, and I've done nothing statistical with it, but I've coloured in the El Nino events for which there looks to be a correlation.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Media/graphics/SolarCycle.gif

El Nino Year | DJF Average Temperature Hadley CET | State of Solar cycle

1925, (1925 = 5.8 1926 = 4.7) 1925-30 Apex Solar Cycle

1929, 1930, (1929 = 1.7 1930 = 4.6 1931 = 3.8 1932 = 4.8 ) Nadir Solar Cycle

1940, 1941, (1940 = 1.5 1941 = 2.6 1942 = 2.2 1943 = 5.9) Apex solar cycle

1951, 1953, (1951 = 2.9 1952 = 3.9 1953 = 3.5 1954 = 4.1 1955 = 3.5) Nadir solar cycle

1957, (1957 = 5.5 1958 = 4.2) Apex Solar cycle

1963, 1965, (1963 = -0.3 1964 = 3.5 1965 = 3.3 1966 = 4.4 1967 = 5.1) Nadir Solar cycle

1969, (1969 = 3.2 1970 = 3.3) Just before apex of solar cycle

1972, (1972 = 4.9 1973 = 4.9) Apex solar cycle

1976, 1977, (1976 = 5.2 1977 = 3.3 1978 = 4.1 1979 = 1.6) Nadir solar cycle

1982, (1982= 2.6 1983= 4.3) Just after apex of solar cycle

1986, 1987, (1986 = 2.9 1987 = 3.5 1988 = 5.3 1989 = 6.5) Nadir solar cycle

1990, 1991, (1990 = 6.2 1991 = 3.0 1992 = 4.6 1993 = 4.7) Apex solar cycle

1993, 1994, (1993 = 4.7 1994 = 4.7 1995 = 5.9 1996 = 3.0) Just before nadir solar cycle

1997 (1997 = 4.0 1998 = 6.1) Just before apex of solar cycle

1976, 1977 and 1997 don't follow the pattern.

[Mr Maunder]

So when the solar cycle is at a nadir El Nino events will result in cold winters, but when the solar cycle is at apex El Nino events will result in warm winters, or no-change?

I was not trying to make any linkage between an El Nino and a cold winter, but your quick analysis does suggest that this has happened during a number of the 20th century solar cycles.

I've noticed before that there is often an El Nino at the start of a new cycle, although whether this is a random event or linked to solar (in)activity is unclear. There are theorists who suggest that this is related to low ice cloud cover over the tropics at the start of a new cycle that allow an upswing in solar activity to force sea temperatures. It is though, only a theory!

If this theory has any legs then the fact that we are having what seems to be a relatively weak/moderate El Nino is not a surprise given that this is a weak start to Solar Cycle 24.

MM

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I was not trying to make any linkage between an El Nino and a cold winter, but your quick analysis does suggest that this has happened during a number of the 20th century solar cycles.

I've noticed before that there is often an El Nino at the start of a new cycle, although whether this is a random event or linked to solar (in)activity is unclear. There are theorists who suggest that this is related to low ice cloud cover over the tropics at the start of a new cycle that allow an upswing in solar activity to force sea temperatures. It is though, only a theory!

If this theory has any legs then the fact that we are having what seems to be a relatively weak/moderate El Nino is not a surprise given that this is a weak start to Solar Cycle 24.

MM

MM

I notice your sig...I agree the perturbation cycle to la Nina dominance started in Feb 2007.

BFTP

Edited September 26, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Iceberg]

Some massive increases in the ENSO regions over the last couple of weeks.

Region 4 is 1.4

Region 3.4 is 1.1

Region 3 is 0.8

Region 1+2 is 0.1

Region 1 and 2 is the smallest region location next to the south american coast, is the most variable as it responds to synoptics conditions readily.

Region 3.4 is one used for Enso recording reasons.

Going from the above figures is looks like November will see the switch to a moderate ENSO event from a weak one, pretty much bang on target with the models which have performed excellently over the last 6 months (deterministic anyway), the statistical have been pretty terrible.

It is set to continue above 1C by Aus, METO, ECM and Nasa until at least the Spring.

Forgot to add this is a classic Western Enso event.

Forgot to add again we also have a classic Kelvin Wave bringing the new bout of warming in.

Edited October 27, 2009 by Iceberg

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that Ice!

Looks like we will be on target for at least a moderate Nino' event. Doesn't us entering our -ve PDO phase mean that it's impacts are limited (in the way that Nina events are augmented by the same) by the N Pacific cooling?

Maybe , had we still been in the PDO+ve phase, and had the extra 'oomph' we're told that brings to El Nino, we'd be looking at another 97'esque sized event? bit odd though if we'd had 2 'super Nino's only 12yrs apart don'tcha' think? (only teasing)

Edited October 27, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks for that Ice!

Looks like we will be on target for at least a moderate Nino' event. Doesn't us entering our -ve PDO phase mean that it's impacts are limited (in the way that Nina events are augmented by the same) by the N Pacific cooling?

Maybe , had we still been in the PDO+ve phase, and had the extra 'oomph' we're told that brings to El Nino, we'd be looking at another 97'esque sized event? bit odd though if we'd had 2 'super Nino's only 12yrs apart don'tcha' think? (only teasing)

Errr no, because we haven't? Read about the growing glacier [Filcher-Ronne] in Antarctica? Strange that eh? Oh teasing !!!

BFTP

Edited October 28, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

Filchner-Ronne? Wasn't that back in 05' before the whopper 'A38' broke off it (150km by 50km) BFTP?