Current Enso Conditions

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Filchner-Ronne? Wasn't that back in 05' before the whopper 'A38' broke off it (150km by 50km) BFTP?

So did the AGW start in 2005? A mere pimple GW, a mere pimple.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

So did the AGW start in 2005? A mere pimple GW, a mere pimple.

BFTP

?

The link between ENSO and Antarctic melt shows us that there is a delay of up to 6 or 7 years in making it's presence felt.

Now what happened , in terms of positive ENSO events several years before this A38 collapse? or 5 years before the Peninsula collapses?

Once gone these mighty shelfs (in place for 100's of thousands of years) , do not appear to re-grow.

What was so different in the 97' Nino that helped shift so many of the shelfs that had weathered so many previous 'Super Nino's'?

[Iceberg]

A quick update on ENSO, latest weekly figures are out soon.

The below is taken from the Aussie BOM and the US CPC.

What basically shows is that the SOI is extremely negative atm, more so than any other time recently. (This allows the warm water to move east wards.

The new Kelvin wave is still going ahead full steam, and looks to the be stronger the late spring wave which brought the rapid warming, Indeed stronger than any wave since 2005 at least.

The Aussie BOM gives a El Nino forecast of between 1.2 and 2.0 in it's ensembles, averaging appox 1.5 which would give a boardline Moderate/strong El Nino come Jan.

There has been alot of talk about a west vs east El Nino. Those wanting a west based El Nino will not want to see the SOI where it is now as this will almost certainly shift things eastwards.

In my last update I said that this was a classic western El Nino, but I did not foresee such a negative SOI nor the strength of the Kelvin wave.

We need a further two weeks IMO to see where this is heading.

[azores92]

oh dear, everytime you post things seem to have taken a turn for the worse iceberg! not looking great imo, but there are many other factors at play.

[Gray-Wolf]

oh dear, everytime you post things seem to have taken a turn for the worse iceberg! not looking great imo, but there are many other factors at play.

From reading on other sites who are still holding out for a resurgent 'la-Nina (yeah , right!) they are relying upon those 'other factors'. The Negative PDO phase, southern ocean indicators etc.

I have to admit if factors favouring Nina' or neutral are predominant (in some minds) how do we explain a mod/strong Nnio'?

[azores92]

From reading on other sites who are still holding out for a resurgent 'la-Nina (yeah , right!) they are relying upon those 'other factors'. The Negative PDO phase, southern ocean indicators etc.

I have to admit if factors favouring Nina' or neutral are predominant (in some minds) how do we explain a mod/strong Nnio'?

touche, imho we just have to face the facts, the prospects for the ENSO conditions are looking grim. El Nino, from the sounds of it, seems like it is going to strengthen somewhat in the coming weeks, and spread out into eastern areas. what will be interesting is how warm the eastern pacific gets. it looks like a warming is inevitable, but providing we dont reach moderate levels, and the warmer areas stays further west, surely this is better news for us. its a very knife edge situation imho. maybe this will be the year that el nino doesnt overrule the southerly tracking jet, and -NAO conditions? theres always got to be a rulebreaker somewhere in our winters. besides, el nino bodes well for the second half of winter, reading articles from the past, and el nino in 2006/7 could have been responsible for a brilliant snow event for the midlands in the february.

[MR EXTREMES]

From reading on other sites who are still holding out for a resurgent 'la-Nina (yeah , right!) they are relying upon those 'other factors'. The Negative PDO phase, southern ocean indicators etc.

I have to admit if factors favouring Nina' or neutral are predominant (in some minds) how do we explain a mod/strong Nnio'?

id hold your horses graywolf id also say taking a swipe at other peoples idears is unfair because as we all know the climate is very unpredictable,

weakening nino is very possible end of december into first part of january.

and other people did not imagine thease factors like pdo ect ect,

anyway the quicker it strengthens the quicker it weakens.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

From reading on other sites who are still holding out for a resurgent 'la-Nina (yeah , right!) they are relying upon those 'other factors'. The Negative PDO phase, southern ocean indicators etc.

I have to admit if factors favouring Nina' or neutral are predominant (in some minds) how do we explain a mod/strong Nnio'?

GW

You just don't listen or read posts properly. La Nina perturbation cycle and -ve PDO does NOT and never has or even been suggested by anyone that permanent La Nina state will be in play. Just like the positive phase of last 30 yars did NOT mean El Nino were permanent. Just what is going to be more prominent overthe perod of time. So that is how explains a moderate El Nino....and we are not strong so let's all hold our horses at the moment.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

The latest update and values from NOAA CPC have come out and as expected show a very large weekly increase upto 1.5C in the El Nino zone (boarderline strong now).

Zone 4 (the western zone is now upto strong with 1.6C)

Zone 3 has gone up from 0.6 at the start of October to 1.2C

Zone 1+2 (far eastern)has gone up from -0.7 to +0.4.

The 3 monthly average (which lags by 3 months surprisingly hasn't been updated yet. This new strengthening won't show up in the figures until the Oct/Nov/Dec figures are released by Jan, but there is no doubting the strong and strengthening nature, of an easterly moving EL Nino event currently.

[Gray-Wolf]

My monies on a 'strong' Nino' ; )

If only to suggest that 'normal operation' will not be resumed anytime soon and that global systems (even those most recently isolated and identified) are now being augmented/overtaken by global change.

[Iceberg]

This graph puts the latest El Nino figures into perspective. We are already higher than the last El Nino in 2006.

Some measurements of the SOI also have it at it's joint lowest since the Super El Nino of 97/98.

[karyo]

This graph puts the latest El Nino figures into perspective. We are already higher than the last El Nino in 2006.

Some measurements of the SOI also have it at it's joint lowest since the Super El Nino of 97/98.

Thank you for the update Iceberg. Every time I see a post from you, I expect to read bad news for the winter ahead.

Karyo

Edited November 4, 2009 by karyo

[Iceberg]

Moi,no just an eyes wide open approach.

There are some good and bad pointers to this winter and tbh nobody knows, as it's all far too complicated for anybody to try and figure out in their head.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Moi,no just an eyes wide open approach.

There are some good and bad pointers to this winter and tbh nobody knows, as it's all far too complicated for anybody to try and figure out in their head.

The Kelvin wave thingy majiggy that indicated the recent warming, anymore or has that passed curretly?

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Still going strong !. But it's only updated once a week so we have to wait until next monday for an update.

We will probably see a 2C weekly anom over the next few weeks.

[Iceberg]

A quick update the Zone 4 ENSO figure from the latest weekly update is the highest ever recorded (records going back 20 years).

[karyo]

A quick update the Zone 4 ENSO figure from the latest weekly update is the highest ever recorded (records going back 20 years).

Is zone 4 the most western of the nino region?

Karyo

[Iceberg]

Yes.

[jethro]

I like to think of big El Nino's as Mother Nature burping; got to get rid of some of that stored heat somehow, restore her equilibrium :unsure:

[Iceberg]

CPC have provided a weekly update and I am left a little a gasp by the picture emerging.

Latest Values are.

Zone 4 1.6

Zone 3.4 1.7

Zone 3 1.3

Zone 1+2 0.4

So Zones 3.4 and 3 are still increasing. With the official ENSO zone 3.4 now showing a "strong" El Nino event on it's weekly update.

Of more interest though is what is happening possible just down the line.

Upper Ocean anonalies are still increasing at a very fast rate and are now in the region of 1.3C or so.

A Pool of very warm sea temps (1.5-2.0) lies within 30-50 meters of the surface now even further east. This has been moving upwards continually.

Slightly deeper than this and temps 2C and greater are easily in reach given the right conditions.

The Kelvin wave is also showing no signs of falling away and is moving further and further eastwards and intensifying with temps above 2C as it moves eastwards.

I am not trying to be doom and gloom but this is showing all the signs of a 2C+ El Nino event unless the pacific kicks back violently.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well that's a worry. If we were to throw a Nino' rivaling 97' during, what I'm promised is a negative PDO/AO phase would that not be running against the grain and demand explanation?

NOAA's winter forecast is calling for a Nino' winter in the U.S. (though not a strong one) but what if? what of the Arctic and it's recovery?

[Mr Maunder]

Reading some of the latest posts in this thread you would think that a repeat of the 1998 Nino is becoming a nailed on certainty!

The latest daily figures for all regions do show a decline from last weeks peak figures and are as follows:

Region 4 +1.36 (last week +1.6)

Region 3.4 +1.49 (last week +1.7)

Region 3 +0.98 (last week +1.3)

Region 1+2 +0.15 (last week +0.4)

In itself this does not prove that the Nino has peaked, but the rapid rise has, for the moment, stopped.

If it has now reached its maximum then the Nino peak (which is based on the averages of three successive months, not on a particular daily peak) is likely to be in the +1.3 to +1.5 range. This is in line with the ENSO model forecasts as detailed in the weekly NOAA ENSO report, with the peak coming in the figure for the three months Nov/Dec/Jan. The latest three month figure (Aug/Sep/Oct) is +0.9.

To put this in perspective the recent Ninos have had the following maximum values:

1983 +2.3

1988 +1.6

1992 +1.8

1995 +1.3

1998 +2.5

2003 +1.5

2005 +0.9

2006 +1.1

This means that we could therefore have an event comparable in strength with the 1995 and 2003 Ninos, which would put it firmly in the moderate territory.

MM

[Iceberg]

MR M, I'll probably wait for the next weekly update, tbh I am not sure what baseline, sat etc the daily use and they are probably going to vary quite alot, tbh weekly figures vary a bit too much when looking at ENSO, but can give a general idea.

A point to note generally is that CPC use the 70 to 2000 baseline, which is pretty much the whole of the last positive PDO including the 98 Super ENSO. If you use the 60-90 baseline, then the baseline is approx .5C cooler.

BTW I am not saying the daily's use this, they most likely are exactly the same as CPC.

[Devonian]

Reading some of the latest posts in this thread you would think that a repeat of the 1998 Nino is becoming a nailed on certainty!

Tbh I can't see that. I see opinions, one of which is yours in this post, I don't see certainty being expressed by anyone.

The latest daily figures for all regions do show a decline from last weeks peak figures and are as follows:

Region 4 +1.36 (last week +1.6)

Region 3.4 +1.49 (last week +1.7)

Region 3 +0.98 (last week +1.3)

Region 1+2 +0.15 (last week +0.4)

In itself this does not prove that the Nino has peaked, but the rapid rise has, for the moment, stopped.

If it has now reached its maximum then the Nino peak (which is based on the averages of three successive months, not on a particular daily peak) is likely to be in the +1.3 to +1.5 range. This is in line with the ENSO model forecasts as detailed in the weekly NOAA ENSO report, with the peak coming in the figure for the three months Nov/Dec/Jan. The latest three month figure (Aug/Sep/Oct) is +0.9.

To put this in perspective the recent Ninos have had the following maximum values:

1983 +2.3

1988 +1.6

1992 +1.8

1995 +1.3

1998 +2.5

2003 +1.5

2005 +0.9

2006 +1.1

This means that we could therefore have an event comparable in strength with the 1995 and 2003 Ninos, which would put it firmly in the moderate territory.

MM

We could, or it might be weaker or stronger?

Edited November 12, 2009 by Devonian

[Iceberg]

I think the danger of using the daily values can be seen on the SST thread. 48 hrs of cloud cover will reduce SST's a bit, but would not effect the MEI value really.