Current Enso Conditions

[kold weather]

Intrestingly at the moment we have what is known as a Modoki El Nino where the warmest SST's are focused in the zone 4 of the Pacific and thus is west based. This is probably helped a lot in helping to keep this winter quite cold relative to the normal El Nino pattern, these sort sof El Nino seemed to happen a lot in the 60s and also we saw a brief version of this in summer 2004 but to get one so strong is a little unusual.

Not only do these El ninos provide a chance for something a decent bit colder then the normal El Nino climatology but they also often provide a much more active hurricane season then you'd think would be the case in typical El nino set-ups, as was seen in 69 and 04 so its something to watch. This is because the shear normally associated with El Nino is shifted that bit further west away from a good chunk of the Atlantic basin whilst at the same time the tropical Atlantic warms up in response to the El Nino. Normally you see a comprative warming/cooling depending on what the Pacific does, for example in winter 08-09 SST's in the tropical Atlantic were pretty cold, as soon as El nino pattern tried to start and develop in late Spring/early summer we saw a warming in the tropical Atlantic.

So therefore whilst this El Nino is strong, its not exactly reacting like a typical El nino because of it being west based as well as the weak -ve PDO signal present pegging it back.

Edited January 26, 2010 by kold weather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This El Nino is collapsing before our eyes and at a very fast rate, it will be over come spring I'd guestimate at. Since early Jan with anomaly of 2.99 it has dropped to 2.48...that is some drop

BFTP

[kold weather]

Officall figures BFTP aklso back that up, the 3.4 zone down to 1.4C last week. Any major Kelvin wave however could yet push it above that 1.5C threshold but given El nino's typically weaken towards the back end of our winter I suspect we have seen the peak of El nino. I'd be surp0rised if it decays quite as rapidly as you suspect, I think we may just about hang onto a very low end El nino right till the Autumn and it wouldn't shock me to see a low end El nino next winter as well but this El nino certainly has behaved differently, quite possibly thanks to it being a modoki nino, or west based, thus I'm quite interested in this hurricane season IF it stays the same and doesn't spread eastwards.

[TimS]

The most recent indicators seem to show a possible double-peak to this unusual El Nino. See this from NOAA:

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

and the latest SOI from BOM:

The Easterly anomalies that were subduing propagation of warm subsurface water to the surface and confusing the wider ENSO atmospheric signals seem to have given way to anomalous westerlies again, and a dropping SOI.

An interesting El Nino this one. Slow to get going, has proceeded by sudden leaps, and has at various times threatened to be a mega event or a damp squib. It does seem like the wider circulation has not been very conducive to sustaining a Nino. The latest model outlooks though show an unusually slow decline from its peak - biggish events like these usually decline and reverse pretty quickly, with the exception of the sustained early-mid 90s El Nino.

[kold weather]

Certainly wouldn't surprise me to see some brief warming up of the ENSO 3.4 region again, this event become very west based indeed now, in fact its really only zone 4 thats keeping this is a decent strength moderate El nino right now.

[Iceberg]

There was quite a drop off in ENSO in the last couple of weeks and we have yet to see whether this picks up again.

However It is now official that the Nov/Dec/Jan figure came in as 1.8C, this makes the current El Nino officially Strong and it can claim the title of the joint 2nd warmest El Nino for over 20 years. 98 still stands head and shoulders in front, but this was an unusual El Nino we just now need to see how long it goes on for (Or indeed how long it stays moderate for).

[chionomaniac]

There was quite a drop off in ENSO in the last couple of weeks and we have yet to see whether this picks up again.

However It is now official that the Nov/Dec/Jan figure came in as 1.8C, this makes the current El Nino officially Strong and it can claim the title of the joint 2nd warmest El Nino for over 20 years. 98 still stands head and shoulders in front, but this was an unusual El Nino we just now need to see how long it goes on for (Or indeed how long it stays moderate for).

Thanks for the update Iceberg.

It is interesting how long that this El Nino has taken to engage the atmosphere outside of the tropics with the GWO only recently showing the increase in AAM. This timing has probably helped with the winter we have already had, and with the recent engagement of the extra tropical atmosphere this may bode well for a more traditional El Nino February (and March).

[kold weather]

Which interestingly may not be a bad thing for the UK in early spring, esp as the southern arm of the jet stream should be starting to come northwards again as the ITCZ starts its seasonal climb in latitude as we reach spring.

Anyway interesting information Iceberg, that does indeed make it offically a strong event, though as you've noted it has weakened quite a lot recently. The SOI did tank a week ago but that was due to Cyclone Oli passing quite close by and not really a true reflection of the background conditions. Also subsurface temps have cooled alot compared to the last few months. Still I suspect we will have a weak event for Sprimng and probably a decent chunk of summer but given how poorly the EL nino has engaged with everything and given in general how the nino has had to fight various other teleconnection s which go against it, so its possible the El nino event may end up decaying faster then modelws prog but thats something to watch, Autumn tends to be a very hard time to call in terms of ENSO signal...

[kold weather]

El Nino stablised for now around 1.2C, so a middle moderate event for now.

However whats really interesting is the ENSO models have moved right away from thier intial ideas of a moderate El Nino for the summer, most now go for neutral and quite a decent amount even go cool neutral, a hurricane buff I have to admit this really does interest me, similar profile to 95 and 05 if that occured possibly...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This El Nino is collapsing before our eyes and at a very fast rate, it will be over come spring I'd guestimate at. Since early Jan with anomaly of 2.99 it has dropped to 2.48...that is some drop

BFTP

Looking again at UNISYS the El Nino looks the least warm for some considerable time. +1.5 and 1.7 being shown now...could it be neutral by late May? Certainly a big downward move going on.

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looking again at UNISYS the El Nino looks the least warm for some considerable time. +1.5 and 1.7 being shown now...could it be neutral by late May? Certainly a big downward move going on.

BFTP

There looks to be further weakening, and strengthening of the -ve PDO.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

Won't the anomalous ice flowing in front of Bering and down the PDO areas affect the surface temp of the oceans there? There is a lot of melting going on at present so a lot of fresher surface water. I'd wait until later in May to look at PDO trends.

Also ,if we plummet into ENSO neutral how does this translate across the Arctic? Am I wrong in thinking that the Nino' had aided and abbeted the AO this winter and that ,to keep the ice in the Arctic, we needed it to persisit over the melt season??

[MR EXTREMES]

There looks to be further weakening, and strengthening of the -ve PDO.

BFTP

yep seems that way.

but blast we better watch out all the ice melting in the arctic surely this is key to more doom and the end of the neg pdo,

well thats what gw seems to think anyway.

i also felt the neg ao caused this winter would have been more inline with south tracking jet and low solar activity.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

I'm all out of kilter here, the above link (to the folk who provide us with the PDO data) has us with a pretty strong positive PDO figure.

Their records are only up to feb though so has it dropped over 2 points in a month and a half 'cause that'd be pretty special in the 110yrs of recods they have there?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That is strange because this is clearly a -ve PDO state and generally has been for a while, though like you say we are looking at figures 2 and 3 months ago. Look at the reverse cold C in the Pacific west of US.

The longterm shift south of the jetstream IMO will prevent further 'real warmth' plumes attacking the arctic as in previous two decades. I forcing continue to play the waiting game as it seems sensible to do so at present as we are seeing climactic shifts [which I believe are directly linked/caused] by cyclical solar forcing.

GW, re the extra ice or icemelt causing cold pools, well if Greenland is shedding so much ice/in meltdown then how come the SSTs are so warm around the SW region....surely the icemelt would cause cold pools according to your thoughts???

BFTP

Edited April 13, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not wishing to be confrontational here BFTP but all of that water in front of the Bering straight is just 'ice water' at the moment. Because of the anomalous ice spurt in that area this March I've been watching it drift and melt out. The purples on the left of Bering represent a rapidly decaying flotilla of single year ice (check yesterdays MODIS images and you'll see that 'milky, swirly' pattern that melted ice leaves in the ocean). I'm sure this 'chilled water' doesn't extend down too far and I'm not sure at what depths temps are taken for the PDO measurements but it can't just be the surface can it?

The only splodge of cold ocean that doesn't correspond to ice melt/cover is the one off NW U.S.A./Alaska.

Conversely the SW tip of Greenland has, historically , been tempered by ice cover and seeing as none formed this year (and has open water already) it shows a positive anom.

So we have areas not usually ice covered (to this extent) showing 'cold' and areas that should be ice covered but aren't showing 'warm'.

Edited April 13, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm not wishing to be confrontational here BFTP but all of that water in front of the Bering straight is just 'ice water' at the moment. Because of the anomalous ice spurt in that area this March I've been watching it drift and melt out. The purples on the left of Bering represent a rapidly decaying flotilla of single year ice (check yesterdays MODIS images and you'll see that 'milky, swirly' pattern that melted ice leaves in the ocean). I'm sure this 'chilled water' doesn't extend down too far and I'm not sure at what depths temps are taken for the PDO measurements but it can't just be the surface can it?

The only splodge of cold ocean that doesn't correspond to ice melt/cover is the one off NW U.S.A./Alaska.

Conversely the SW tip of Greenland has, historically , been tempered by ice cover and seeing as none formed this year (and has open water already) it shows a positive anom.

So we have areas not usually ice covered (to this extent) showing 'cold' and areas that should be ice covered but aren't showing 'warm'.

Well last year the cold anomaly around the southern western tip of Greenland was due to amadas of iceflos coming off the melting Greenland. Has Greenland stopped melting then??? You can't keep moving the goalposts GW.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

Agreed BFTP.

With ice flow between Greenland uninterupted all winter we don't have blocks of perennial and calved glacier bergs locked in winter ice that is just letting go now and flowing south .Check the NE Tip of Greenland and you'll see what I mean with rounded perennial bergs set amidst a slush of melting single year ice if you compare this with those 'warm patches' off SW Greenland you'll see the difference.

Anyhow we'll be getting the March PDO figure soon enough won't we?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Agreed BFTP.

Anyhow we'll be getting the March PDO figure soon enough won't we?

What I have posted is a classic -ve PDO set up, that's all I can say for now.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Latest ENSO figures are aroudn the +1 to +1.1 depending on who's taking the reading.

This is approx a decline of .2C from the end of Jan, so still going down, but not a very large rate, more a very gradual cool off from the strong figures.

Spring is of course the time of large ENSO changes and just as we had the strong 98 El Nino followed by a strong La Nina, there are signs that a strong La Nina might follow come next winter.

The odds are still firmly in favour of a neutral ENSO from June onwards, the NASA GMAO model has a La Nina approaching -2 from October onwards, ECM is hinting at a weak La Nina along with the NOAA model.

A pretty even split amongst the Dynamic and stats models as well.

However Any potential La Nina is still a long way off and we are still in a moderate El Nino come mid April.

Re PDO looking at the SST chart there are aspects of both warm and cold phase in there IMO, you'd be hard pushed to get a negative PDO with a moderate El Nino, even a decaying one, particularly given that SOI has only recently turned positive.

[Gray-Wolf]

I know the thread isn't PDO based but I do not feel that we are -ve PDO. Once the ice has gone then most of that 'cold pool' around Bering will go too. The lone blob off NW U.S.A. is the onlt thin 'anomalous' out there. March figures will soon be out anyway and we'll see if we've had a big turnaround.

[kold weather]

Interesting data from the Aussies and NOAA both have the temps now down to 0.8c in the 3.4 zone, so we are now offically in the weak category, at least in the weeklies, though still got some way to go for the tri-monthlies to get that low!

Condtions are still cnodusive for slow cooling towards nuetral, at least on the weeklies in the next 6-8 weeks...

[Gray-Wolf]

Wonders never cease! I actually enjoyed an article in WUWT!!!!! The main thrust was that Nino's of the Modoki flavour

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/

hardly ever are followed by a Nina event so it looks like the temps won't fall away as some were hoping for........

[kold weather]

Very interesting article GW.

Weekly temps now down to neutral at 0.5C...we have some impressive cold subsurface temps and a cold PDO region which would help to destroy any traces of the El Nino. However I've been far from convinced we are going to go into a La Nina.

Saying that you can't really argue with thew models thus far, esp given they are handling the decline very well indeed and most go weak La Nina still.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wonders never cease! I actually enjoyed an article in WUWT!!!!! The main thrust was that Nino's of the Modoki flavour

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/

hardly ever are followed by a Nina event so it looks like the temps won't fall away as some were hoping for........

Its an interesting one, but -ve AO and NAO are hardly the case with mod to strong El Nino winters. I wouldn't want to call it but the perturbation cycle may make the difference. That is a lot of cold water in he Pacific!!

BFTP