Current Enso Conditions

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the latest Unisys shows a collapse of the El Nino going on, surely neutral for summer looks favourite now and a growing cold spread within the Pacific as the -ve PDO re asserts. I think we will see a continued global temp drop from here on in now as we have seen the peak in Feb/March. April slightly down so it will be interesting to see if we continue the downward movement...I think we will as Nino and record -ve AO accounted for the warm months.

BFTP

[kold weather]

Also BFTP I think actually the bigger factor right now for the warmth since Feb/March is actually the amazing anomalies in the tropical Atlantic, seriously they look like something you'd find in a strong El nino at the moment, thats how warm they are!

So combine a El Nino that moderate, a huge -ve AO and a SUPER warm (record breaking by far!) Tropical Atlantic and your going to have some high temps, to be honest I'm surprised more records haven't fallen!

Anyway, as you say the El Nino is just about done, for the summer I'd call neutral but trending cooler nuetral towards probably -0.5C, maybe not quite breaking the cusp of La Nina. Still we shall see as always!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Yes that is good bye El Nino. That is quite a rapid looking decline since April and increasing amounts of colder water. If this keeps up a La Nina as a few models suggest could be on the cards....but lets see how this develops further.

BFTP

Edited May 18, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

here

Roy believes the same. this year will be very interesting. And as early as now the heads up for me is a cold autumn and very cold winter 10/11.

BFTP

[Yorkshiresnows]

here

Roy believes the same. this year will be very interesting. And as early as now the heads up for me is a cold autumn and very cold winter 10/11.

BFTP

Hi Blast,

Just been perusing Roy Spencer's site and almost finished his book ...... personally I'm now more than 90% certain that man made global warming is a very minor component to what we have experienced. The change over in the global ocean temoperatures is quite amazing. There really is only one way this can go now ...... thats to a cooler regime in my opinion.

The PDO and low cloud cover are key elements that with solar activity provide a compelling argument for a major major role of natural cycles in the late 20th century warming and which point to a general cooling trend over the coming 20-30 years.

Satellite data have shown that radiative forcing as well as feedback need to be factored into the IPCC models for climate change, that they do not ... and only deal with feedback is the achilles heel of climate modalling. It will be intersting to see, even this year how the predicted to actual temperature plots go.

Also, just seen Joe laminate floori's call for a cold European winter, ..... nice early call ....!!!

Y.S

Edited May 22, 2010 by Yorkshiresnows

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100521192533.htm

Hmmm. I don't know about Mr Spencer's lone voice but the Argo Fleet seem to be showing all the oceans absorbing far more heat than they put out (since 93').

NOAA seem to think this shows quite a strong 'climate signal'.

As has been mooted before if ocean temps continue to rise then La Nina will cease to exist as the temp thresholds to call one will never be breached. The same could be said of the negative PDO (and the milding of that phase over the past 3 major -ve episodes).

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100521192533.htm

Hmmm. I don't know about Mr Spencer's lone voice but the Argo Fleet seem to be showing all the oceans absorbing far more heat than they put out (since 93').

NOAA seem to think this shows quite a strong 'climate signal'.

As has been mooted before if ocean temps continue to rise then La Nina will cease to exist as the temp thresholds to call one will never be breached. The same could be said of the negative PDO (and the milding of that phase over the past 3 major -ve episodes).

Surely the ENSO events are based more on the difference in ssts between one area and another as apposed to the actual sst? So no matter how high ssts get, you could still get El Nino and La Nina events?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Blast,

Just been perusing Roy Spencer's site and almost finished his book ...... personally I'm now more than 90% certain that man made global warming is a very minor component to what we have experienced. The change over in the global ocean temoperatures is quite amazing. There really is only one way this can go now ...... thats to a cooler regime in my opinion.

The PDO and low cloud cover are key elements that with solar activity provide a compelling argument for a major major role of natural cycles in the late 20th century warming and which point to a general cooling trend over the coming 20-30 years.

Satellite data have shown that radiative forcing as well as feedback need to be factored into the IPCC models for climate change, that they do not ... and only deal with feedback is the achilles heel of climate modalling. It will be intersting to see, even this year how the predicted to actual temperature plots go.

Also, just seen Joe laminate floori's call for a cold European winter, ..... nice early call ....!!!

Y.S

Hi YS

We saw how global temps reacted to the La Nina in 08 and they have reacted warmth wise to the significant El Nino and record -ve AO. -ve PDO really re-asserting itself and the perturbation cycle will bring a 36 year period of Nina Domination or even a in El Nino a -ve NAO and -ve AO are likely to persist distorting the Nino signal we have become used to. The El Nino collapse is just that now, a collapse. Prob won't see a real cooling response until Aug.

BFTP

[kold weather]

Surely the ENSO events are based more on the difference in ssts between one area and another as apposed to the actual sst? So no matter how high ssts get, you could still get El Nino and La Nina events?

Exactly, because it is the thermal difference that creates the change in the pattern, so therefore even if sea surface temps do warm the SST difrference will still respond like a La nina would and the planet would cool down as a result.

I can see this even eventually becoming a low end moderate event during winter, though I think the current signal is more of a response to the rapid decline of El nino rather than a true La nina developing, as I think BFTP has suggested, at least for now.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looks like a moderate La Nina could develop by autumn and it will likely be September time when global temp drop response be very visible. The turnaround has been quite rapid and with a strong -ve PDO now taking grip. Joe B mentioned about the thicker ice at the pole compared to recent years possibly down the PDO phase.

BFTP