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Chase 2009 Day 12 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Looking like a fairly active day with a duel threat to contend with. SPC Mentioning the possibiliies of Tornadoes.

    With one eye on getting the guests back to DFW On Friday Lunchtime we look likely to be playing the Dryline which should extend from the Warm Front Intersection in North East Kansas South Westward through Central Kansas and SW Oklahoma. Cape Values are again Insane at around 5,000jkg and If a Lone Supercell Can break the Cap which according to the NAM Model does happen then we could be in Business. Initially going to Drift North from an Overnight Position in El Reno (Ok) towards the OK/KS Border area North of Enid at this present time but this could all change in the Morning.

    post-24-1241653413_thumb.png

    ...ERN KS/ERN OK INTO MO/AR...

    VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL

    LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS...THOUGH

    CAPPING/WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS DEEP

    CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY S OF THE RED RIVER AND WWD

    INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

    AS A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WSWLY FLOW ALOFT

    APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS

    IS FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

    W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE OK/KS/MO

    VICINITY. WITH CAPPING GREATLY LIMITING ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT S OF

    THIS DEVELOPING BOUNDARY...WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT

    SHOULD FUEL AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/SERN

    KS...AND EWD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD

    INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS KS/NRN OK AND THEN SPREAD EWD

    OVERNIGHT...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

    WHILE ANY ISOLATED STORM WHICH COULD DEVELOP NEAR/S OF THE RED RIVER

    WOULD BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND

    AMPLE/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS

    FORECAST FROM CENTRAL/NERN OK AND SERN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR.

    HERE...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE

    THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND

    POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT

    SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARD HAIL...AS MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION

    REDEVELOPS FARTHER N/W DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE A

    SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

    Friday then looks Interesting for Chase Team 2 and at the Moment it looks like when the last flight arrives and we get going at around 5pm we will be in Full Chase Mode and Move towards Western North Texas around the Witchita Falls Area!!

    Hope you guys are ready to hit the ground running.

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Good luck with todays chases guys, I'm heading down to Heathrow shortly where I am staying overnight, and may not get online until I am over there on Friday. I expect to check into my hotel in Decatur around 5pm on Friday and am then heading either North or North East into OK to try and get some action. I will likely be heading back down to Decatur at the end of the night, very tired... :rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    I'm liking the Red River area from 23Z for say a 35% chance of a cap busting big storm, but higher chances of somewhat less severe action exist with the northern target of SE KS. Mind you, my forecasts relying on a breaking cap have been somewhat dodgy lately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    I'm going off the Red River idea now - the cap is just too strong down there. Instead I'm homing in on the Emporia/Burlington area in CE KS for an early evening cap break.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Expect a slow development cycle today, but explosive development after 00z -- would target Gage OK to Liberal KS and watch out for somewhat of a backdoor frontal development triggering the outbreak after a long period of cap erosion. There may be marginal severe storms in eastern KS but that would be too far from Dallas and probably not that severe, I think the really severe outbreak will develop over the OK/KS border around 01-02z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    I quite fancy the I-35 corridor between Blackwell N-central OK and Witchita, KS for some sups to develop later. Although there is somewhat better CAPE with big values further south over Oklahoma shown by models, a rather strong cap is in place across much of Oklahoma, thanks to an Elevated Mixed Layer/warm air aloft - which will probably severely limit storm potential today. The OK/KS border north the cap is much less eveident on the hourly analysis. Team look like they are headed in that general direction.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Slight, it's the risk of tornados/hail/severe storms/strong winds. You can also have moderate and high risk :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Cumulus seems to be bubbling up above the team as they head N on the I-35 in N-central OK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sittingbourne, Kent
  • Location: Sittingbourne, Kent
    Slight, it's the risk of tornados/hail/severe storms/strong winds. You can also have moderate and high risk :lol:

    Thanks from me too, things are starting to make sense gradually.

    Looks like an interesting few hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    Hi everyone Martin and I left from Gainesville this morning and have been sitting in El dorado Ks which is east of Wichita on the road to IMPORIA and have been here since 1400hrs looks like so far we have picked a good spot dry line setting up just to the west just waiting for the trigger now, still we have been to radio shack done some shopping and eaten a Burger King ! phew this storm chasing is hard work!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Looks like he cap breaking up in NE KS - TVN has towers going up near Holton on the 75

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Latest vis satellite image.

    Nothing on radar yet apart from those cells in the NE corner over the

    Illinois/Missouri border.

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    Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

    And they're off! (The NW team that is)

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    Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

    Hiya folks,

    well looks like the caps winning today we are going to head south to Ardmore for the night though if anything fires on our way down we will be on it, we have to be that far south as we are changing over teams tomorrow :blush:

    Ian

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Watch for development northwest of OKC around 0130-0200z ... dew points are very high in a zone extending north from around Vernon TX to Enid OK (80 F there) ... dry line is weakly depicted at present near the OK-TX border ... pressures are progged to fall rapidly 02-06z across OK ... I think you'll at least get some decent lightning shots after sunset, but with any luck you may get cells going up rapidly just before sunset to the west of the I-35.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex.
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex.

    Hey Ian & gang, just checking in to see what the score is for today's chase, really feel for you guys today/tonight after so much hope with the earlier synopsis but i guess that's stormchasing all over.

    Have a safe journey back south

    Pete

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    Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

    Hiya Pete

    change of plan we are now staying in Perry tonight as there is a possabilty of supercells firing over our head tonight with baseball size hail predicted so should be a good send of for the team just hope the cars servive the night lol well we are going to get some pizza now the storms should kick off around midnight could be a bumpy ride.

    Ian

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    I cant hear the fat lady singing yet!!! we are booked in to the Super8 in Eldorado and I am optimistic of getting something tonight as the warm air aloft weakens , so fingers crossed we are owed somet after cooking all day in 90 degree heat

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    We are also Booked into a Super 8 in Perry (Ok) and swapped our Super8 in Ardmore so we can get the Possible Bow Echo and Embedded Supercells to go over for the last night of Chase Tour 1. A Nice 5 Hour drive back to DFW Tomorrow Morning.

    It should kick off at 6am Uk Time so watch that Radar.

    Good luck in El Dorado Steve and Martin

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    Thanks man say bye to the guys and girls and I hope they get a show tonight, we have already got a discrete place lined up for car cover as we dont want to loose the windows :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Hehehehe - Tour 1 Is going to go out with a Bang!

    post-24-1241756479_thumb.png

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1053 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NORTHERN OK

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 080353Z - 080600Z

    SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEVELOP/INCREASE OVERNIGHT

    ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN HALF OF KS AND FAR NORTHERN OK...WITH

    POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY

    RAINFALL. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 0430Z-05Z.

    TO THE SOUTH OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS KS...00Z

    OBSERVED RAOBS/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REFLECT A RATHER MOIST/POTENTIALLY

    UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NORTH TX AND OK INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS THIS

    EVENING. 23Z/00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM LAMONT OK/NORMAN OK SAMPLED

    14.4 G/KG AND 17.5 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS RESPECTIVELY...WITH VERY

    STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 AND 8.1 C PER KM H7-H5/ AND STRONG

    ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /3500 AND 4300 J PER KG MUCAPE/.

    WITH INCIPIENT DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN

    KS /WEST OF GCK TO HLC/ PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...INITIAL DEEP

    CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN

    INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY THE

    EAST-SOUTHEAST TRANSLATION OF IMPLIED LARGE SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY

    ACROSS EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST KS. SIMILAR TO A TREND ALREADY NOTED IN

    REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND 00Z ANALYSIS OF A WESTERN BRANCH LOW

    LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN OK/SOUTHWEST KS...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY

    LLJ /50-65 KT/ OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC

    LIFT/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS.

    45-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...AMPLE VEERING THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING

    LAYER...AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER

    FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH MAINLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.

    WITH TIME...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY GRADUALLY

    CONSOLIDATE AND GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL

    FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL INCREASING THROUGH THE EARLY

    MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/FAR NORTHERN OK...AND EVENTUALLY

    INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
    Thanks man say bye to the guys and girls and I hope they get a show tonight, we have already got a discrete place lined up for car cover as we dont want to loose the windows :-)

    You seem to be in with a chance tonight too. May need to think about those windows as we have an early start to get to Dallas.

    Tom

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