Chase 2009 Day 14 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Not a Great Outlook for Tornadic Storms today - But if Surface Heating can kick off a few cells then there could be some nice Structure and with only a 2% Tornado Risk at least there is still a Chance of Something Touching Down.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0736 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY AND NEW

ENGLAND...

...AL/GA/SC...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW

ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD

ACROSS AR. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT NOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN MS. THE

AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MUCAPE OF

1500-2000 J/KG. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY BY MID

AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AL/GA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SC. LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY

ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS.

...NC/VA...

MORNING RAOBS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN

PLACE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND VA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF WESTERN VA/NC...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.

SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED SUPERCELL

STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...NY/MA/VT/NH...

A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI...AND

WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY IN THIS REGION AS

COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S

YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. FAST-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL SPREAD FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NY INTO

CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL

ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL

SHEAR...WITH A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

...TX...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON

ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TX. CAPE VALUES

WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND CAP

WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THOSE

STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS.

[nsrobins]

I was quite pleased with my target of Wichita F eastward yesterday and was only 50 miles or so away from the second bunch of initiation. Still learning!

For today the 12Z NAM releases enough CAPE in a small area south of the I20 just south of a reasonably welldefined boundary around 00Z to be of interest. Infact with EHI of >7.00 I might be tempted to take the trip to the Abilene area for a few hours fun and be in a good area for Sunday potential - which currently looks to produce large hail producers west along the I20 corridor.

It seems most of the action seems to be focussed in the south this year so far.

[Gorky]

As I landed yesterday and was pretty much straight into the chase, I've already booked another night here in Decatur so that I can sort out all my belongings, get everything charged up properly etc. I expect storms will fire west of here later on and I'll drive out and follow them back to Decatur. Will probably keep my stomach empty for a nice big meal later on

I was pretty pleased with my target of decatur also, being 50 miles away from one of the ebst storms of the day. I booked the hotel a month ago, so that is some super forecasting skill right there

[plymouthflye]

So just to get my bearings folks, Paul and Tour 2 are initially headed for the same area as last night, ie: I20 towards Abilene? My gps hasn't refreshed since i lost them last night headed into the cell. (sort of)

[Nick F]

Looks to me like they are near Decatur, 30 miles NW of Ft Worth .... yep, defo coming into Decatur - recognise it having been there so often. Even been in that IHOP restaurant they are stopping at.

[plymouthflye]

Looks to me like they are near Decatur, 30 miles NW of Ft Worth .... yep, defo coming into Decatur - recognise it having been there so often.

Their position refreshed not long after i posted my previous. And it does indeed show they are in that area. I just couldnt work out where they were. Didn't recognise anything, and no sun to provde a direction of travel or anything. Thanks anyway Nick.

[Gorky]

Hah.. so predictable Well, if the guys are in Decatur, come see me at the Best Western. I'm in room 143 right now, and was planning on grabbing a bite to eat in a min

[plymouthflye]

Their position refreshed not long after i posted my previous. And it does indeed show they are in that area. I just couldnt work out where they were. Didn't recognise anything, and no sun to provde a direction of travel or anything. Thanks anyway Nick.

I see they've stopped for a (probable) long lunch. The waiting game begins.

[Roger J Smith]

Storms today are more likely well to the south of Dallas, would suggest a zone between 20 W of Waco to 20 S of Brady for set-up, several cells are likely to develop in that frontal zone after 3 pm CDT, drifting to the east-southeast.

For a specific target I will say San Saba to Hamilton TX. This would be about 2 or 2.5 hours from where I understand chasers are now located.

[Tony Gilbert]

Yes, Roger has some good points here and I agree Waco or marginally further west by far is the best deal available ATM. Though, there is no doubt based on the most recent RUC update that there is some real limitations regarding results today!

[Gorky]

I've pretty much given in on getting on any storms. They'd take me too far from my hotel if I followed them anyway. I'll work on getting some video uploaded from yesterday instead...

[Roger J Smith]

Looking at Sunday, the cool wedge seems poised to remain in place ... convection has fired up around midnight in the Rio Grande and lower Pecos valleys, and this may be where to look for any action tomorrow, in fact some guidance suggests it will retreat even further west into the mountains of far west Texas. With some interesting scenery it could be worth the drive, possibly as far west as Marfa or the Davis Mountains.

[Gorky]

I was thinking of heading down towards Odessa tomorrow morning and seeing how things go from there, I'm sure there's almost no tornado chance tomorrow but I'll be happy with some nice structure over a backdrop of nice scenery if storms pop. Looking at the models, there's a possibility of some action in West OK, TX and perhaps into the panhandle on Tuesday, so I don't see it as a completely wasted journey.

[MAF]

Morning Guys. So you think it may be a bit quiet today eh? well at least it gives you some relaxation time and a chance to plan ahead for the week :lol:

hope you are all well out there and enjoying the experience

[Tony Gilbert]

Meager pickings for a couple of days. Based on the extended model I would feel inclined to drop this lot and shift north to maybe Colorado for the start of the next wave around Tues.

Always nice to get the long drive out the way first IMO . Good luck guys :lol: