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Chase 2009 Day 14 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Not a Great Outlook for Tornadic Storms today - But if Surface Heating can kick off a few cells then there could be some nice Structure and with only a 2% Tornado Risk at least there is still a Chance of Something Touching Down.

    post-24-1241884840_thumb.png

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0736 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009

    VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

    REGION...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY AND NEW

    ENGLAND...

    ...AL/GA/SC...

    MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW

    ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD

    ACROSS AR. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF

    THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT NOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN MS. THE

    AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH

    12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MUCAPE OF

    1500-2000 J/KG. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY BY MID

    AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AL/GA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SC. LOCALLY

    DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY

    ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS.

    ...NC/VA...

    MORNING RAOBS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN

    PLACE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NC AND VA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN

    OF WESTERN VA/NC...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.

    SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED SUPERCELL

    STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

    ...NY/MA/VT/NH...

    A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI...AND

    WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY IN THIS REGION AS

    COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S

    YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. FAST-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF

    DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL SPREAD FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NY INTO

    CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL

    ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL

    SHEAR...WITH A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

    ...TX...

    THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON

    ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TX. CAPE VALUES

    WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND CAP

    WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THOSE

    STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND

    DAMAGING WINDS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    I was quite pleased with my target of Wichita F eastward yesterday and was only 50 miles or so away from the second bunch of initiation. Still learning!

    For today the 12Z NAM releases enough CAPE in a small area south of the I20 just south of a reasonably welldefined boundary around 00Z to be of interest. Infact with EHI of >7.00 I might be tempted to take the trip to the Abilene area for a few hours fun and be in a good area for Sunday potential - which currently looks to produce large hail producers west along the I20 corridor.

    It seems most of the action seems to be focussed in the south this year so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    As I landed yesterday and was pretty much straight into the chase, I've already booked another night here in Decatur so that I can sort out all my belongings, get everything charged up properly etc. I expect storms will fire west of here later on and I'll drive out and follow them back to Decatur. Will probably keep my stomach empty for a nice big meal later on :)

    I was pretty pleased with my target of decatur also, being 50 miles away from one of the ebst storms of the day. I booked the hotel a month ago, so that is some super forecasting skill right there :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl

    So just to get my bearings folks, Paul and Tour 2 are initially headed for the same area as last night, ie: I20 towards Abilene? My gps hasn't refreshed since i lost them last night headed into the cell. (sort of)

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Looks to me like they are near Decatur, 30 miles NW of Ft Worth .... yep, defo coming into Decatur - recognise it having been there so often. Even been in that IHOP restaurant they are stopping at.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl
    Looks to me like they are near Decatur, 30 miles NW of Ft Worth .... yep, defo coming into Decatur - recognise it having been there so often.

    Their position refreshed not long after i posted my previous. And it does indeed show they are in that area. I just couldnt work out where they were. Didn't recognise anything, and no sun to provde a direction of travel or anything. Thanks anyway Nick.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Hah.. so predictable :) Well, if the guys are in Decatur, come see me at the Best Western. I'm in room 143 right now, and was planning on grabbing a bite to eat in a min :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl
    Their position refreshed not long after i posted my previous. And it does indeed show they are in that area. I just couldnt work out where they were. Didn't recognise anything, and no sun to provde a direction of travel or anything. Thanks anyway Nick.

    I see they've stopped for a (probable) long lunch. The waiting game begins.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Storms today are more likely well to the south of Dallas, would suggest a zone between 20 W of Waco to 20 S of Brady for set-up, several cells are likely to develop in that frontal zone after 3 pm CDT, drifting to the east-southeast.

    For a specific target I will say San Saba to Hamilton TX. This would be about 2 or 2.5 hours from where I understand chasers are now located.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    Yes, Roger has some good points here and I agree Waco or marginally further west by far is the best deal available ATM. Though, there is no doubt based on the most recent RUC update that there is some real limitations regarding results today!

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    I've pretty much given in on getting on any storms. They'd take me too far from my hotel if I followed them anyway. I'll work on getting some video uploaded from yesterday instead...

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Looking at Sunday, the cool wedge seems poised to remain in place ... convection has fired up around midnight in the Rio Grande and lower Pecos valleys, and this may be where to look for any action tomorrow, in fact some guidance suggests it will retreat even further west into the mountains of far west Texas. With some interesting scenery it could be worth the drive, possibly as far west as Marfa or the Davis Mountains.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    I was thinking of heading down towards Odessa tomorrow morning and seeing how things go from there, I'm sure there's almost no tornado chance tomorrow but I'll be happy with some nice structure over a backdrop of nice scenery if storms pop. Looking at the models, there's a possibility of some action in West OK, TX and perhaps into the panhandle on Tuesday, so I don't see it as a completely wasted journey.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    Morning Guys. So you think it may be a bit quiet today eh? well at least it gives you some relaxation time and a chance to plan ahead for the week :lol:

    hope you are all well out there and enjoying the experience

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    Meager pickings for a couple of days. Based on the extended model I would feel inclined to drop this lot and shift north to maybe Colorado for the start of the next wave around Tues.

    Always nice to get the long drive out the way first IMO . Good luck guys :lol:

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