Chase 2009 Day 15 Discussion

[Nick F]

Some elevated storms severe warned N of DFW around Sherman this morning which may continue just north of the slow-moving front, otherwise the main play for today looks to be further east/SE across the jungles of Louisana and the Sern Gulf States east of the Mississippi which is quite frankly not worth the trek given the terrain. SPC does extend a 2% tornado risk into NE Texas outside the SLGT box - so maybe some pickings in that area again. Otherwise SW Texas may yield something - but capping maybe an issue there.

As Tony mentions, Tuesday is earmarked for a classic High Plains chase - so the team may want to slowly head up towards the Panhandles and Ern CO to get in place:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[nsrobins]

I wonder whether the upslope play on the NM border may be worth a closer look once the 12Zs roll out.

[Tom Lynch]

I wonder whether the upslope play on the NM border may be worth a closer look once the 12Zs roll out.

Yesterday's sky was one I have seen many time before , flat grey and boring. As you would expect under the cold stable air behind the cold front. However in past chases we would normally be behind the cold front in Nebraska or Wyoming and would only have to drive 100 miles to get back into warmer air in Kansas. To do that we would have had to head off towards the Gulf of Mexico. Friday's chase took some of the new guests into action an hour after getting off the plane. As in previous chases we named the storm and this one was called Grace. Grace did get excitable and misbehaved herself constantly. She was probably one of the most electrically energetic storms I have seen. Constant CGs from all areas of the cell. She was tornado warned and we saw what looked like a brief tornado earlier. The wall cloud was huge and enveloped a town which I think was called Brownville. We did hear later that it did some damage and the townsfolk were required to go to an emergency centre. The cell was dropping 4 inch hail. Once sorted I will get some video uploaded.

Tom

[Tom Lynch]

I wonder whether the upslope play on the NM border may be worth a closer look once the 12Zs roll out.

Looking at the next few days I agree that today should be west Texas may be somewhere south west of Childress. Tomorrow might be the same area ending up with the 72oz challenge day for Ian and A Another at the Big Texan. Tuesday we could look at Goodland atm.

Tom

Edited May 10, 2009 by Tom Lynch

[Paul Sherman]

Today is a bit of a Gamble day for Chasers out here. Stay put and see if anything can fire again under the cloudy skies in Central and North East Texas where a 2% Tornado Risk appears or Head much further West to see if an Upslope Storm can break the Cap and become an Isolated Supercell in W Texas.

After that Monday Looks like a Jaunt up to the Big Texan for the Steak Challenge and Ian will attempt to get in the Record Books - 7pm or 1am Uk Time for those who want to watch it live on Big Texan . com

Then as Nick says we finally have some Action in the Best Chase area in the World and an Upper Trough which should finally give Northward moving Storms (Our 1st since we landed) But they will be going at a fair old clip. Dryline or Cold Front further North at the moment from the look of the Models.

On Wednesday we then look to play around in the Trees and Forests of Misery (Missouri) or into Iowa for another possible big day.

Lots to look forward to over the next 5 days

Paul S

[Gorky]

I've moved a bit further north than I planned, and will shorlty be heading towards the northern TX/NM border area , probably Bard, NM. I'm hoping for an isolated cell to pop up at about 6pm our time off the range behind Tucumcari. It's a long shot. There's a tongue of higher dewpoint feeding into this region )only 10 degrees though), and it is a little closer to the jet, so perhaps diffluence aloft will help the storms to form in an unfavourable environment. I think storms firing of the NM range are going to be the play, and it may well be that the southern options turn out best with the higher DP's, but I'll have less travel to do tomorrow for what I have planned during a likely down day Certainly, forecasted cape is more impressive down south around Hobbs. I'm not sure if that is where the team are heading for right now.

[Paul]

Just moved some posts in here as they were in yesterday's discussion, just in case anyone hasn't spotted it, the streaming is currently up and running as the team head west:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

Tom has also put together a meet the team video for our second chase team:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

[nsrobins]

The 18Z RUC has just enough of a dangling carrot to make me take a trip into the Texan hill country and hope for an upslope supercell to fire. Discrete cells develop after 00Z but I think they're too far west. If anything breaks through it'll likely be on the weak boundary - mini dryline intrusion comination around the Midland to Big Lake area.

Good luck.

[subseajimmy]

Storm Chase Group 2 Ask Robert Davidson, he will handle the 72oz challenge and good luck from Brasil

[nsrobins]

Latest visible sat shows a developing chunky Cu field in the Fort Stockton area westwards towards the high range. This is about 120 miles WSW of your current position. Wouldn't be surprised to see something pop shortly from this cluster though it's a bit too far west IMO.

[Nick F]

Two storms forming on the upslope of the high ground of SW Texas just south of I-10 west of Ft Stockton atm, will the team get that way in time to intercept them before they die? A long distance to travel!

[stevestorms]

Hi everyone, we have booked into BIG T tonight and prob tomorrow night to hook up with the guys, we were already in Gainsville in Oklahoma we chased a MCS this morning and got wet and deafened just to see something as we have had a fe wlean days, have been driving 5 straight hours to get to the Big T but now cosey and looking forward to beer and steak, outside chance of a rumble tonight fingers crossed.

Steve and Martin

[Nick F]

2 storms west of Ft Stockton severe warned now. Think team maybe between Big Spring and Midland/Odessa ... so may make it.

Enjoy your steak Steve, two nights in a row that's just being greedy. You'll be mooing like a cow after you leave there after all that steak.

[John Hanrahan]

2 storms west of Ft Stockton severe warned now. Think team maybe between Big Spring and Midland/Odessa ... so may make it.

Yeah looks like the guys are heading right for the storms in question. Pity the location hasnt updated yet. Quick question Nick, in general the location should update every 20 mins approx and the guys seem to have good coverage. Have you found this to be the case while I was out there? Reason I'm asking is this my first time being on this end of the stream and location seems have been on Big Springs for way too long now. Its possible that Ian hasnt updated the location but he's normally does like clockwork. maybe there is a bug that we are not aware of.

[Nick F]

I have noticed that the location marker has go stuck a few times - and defo more than an hour. So they could be past Midland/Odessa for all we know! Refreshing has made no difference.

I can see the anvils of the two storms directly in front of them now ... so they are closing in on them - but they look at least 50-60 odd miles away from the base.

[John Hanrahan]

Thanks Nick. Probably something small but will check with Ian on his end and Paul to get sorted.

HeHe, and its just updated. They are just on the I20 outside Odessa

Edited May 10, 2009 by Christ I don't know

[Mammatus]

Do you have the latest radar image(s) from the cells there approaching Nick?

This live-streaming is great, almost feel I'm there.

[Nick F]

Do you have the latest radar image(s) from the cells there approaching Nick?

This live-streaming is great, almost feel I'm there.

The latest radar image is above in my previous post ... may need to refresh it.

See they have just pulled up outside of somewhere off the interstate, maybe to check out data.

[John Hanrahan]

This live-streaming is great, almost feel I'm there.

Glad to see our hard work on this has payed off. We did allot of testing this side of the pond before heading state side, but bandwidth issues in certain parts of the plains required allot more tweaking than we had anticipated.

Seems to be working great now allright.

[Nick F]

Here was the severe thunderstorm warning earlier for the storms SW of the team right now:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

551 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

EXTREME EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER

EXTREME EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...OR 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF

ALPINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

EXTREME EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

WESTERN PECOS COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN

HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK

SAFE SHELTER NOW.

[Mammatus]

The latest radar image is above in my previous post ... may need to refresh it.

See they have just pulled up outside of somewhere off the interstate, maybe to check out data.

Thanks Nick.

Lets hope they get back on the road soon.

Glad to see our hard work on this has payed off. We did allot of testing this side of the pond before heading state side, but bandwidth issues in certain parts of the plains required allot more tweaking than we had anticipated.

Seems to be working great now allright.

The live-streaming is excellent. Great work. It will be very nice to be on the other end though next Spring.

Edited May 10, 2009 by Seasons

[John Hanrahan]

looks like the guys are on the move again. 2.5" hail on that cell and a rotation marker.

[John Hanrahan]

Nothing chaseable happening for the guys now. They are heading for Lubbock for the night. Probably a good stop en route to Amarillo. Good luck Ian!!

Edited May 11, 2009 by Christ I don't know

[Gorky]

Hey steve, I've booked into the Big T also for today and tomorrow. Give us a shout in room 211 if you want...

[stevestorms]

you still up I have have just seen yer post 00:17 hrs room 207

I dont think yer on line so we are normally up quite early give us a look for brecky, steve and martin

Edited May 11, 2009 by stevestorms