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Chase 2009 Day 19 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Having looked at the Models not really prepared to drive the 400 Miles for little reward and then put ourselves another 500 Miles out of position for Tomorrow so have decided with Tom that today will be a Visit to Greensburg and after that an overnight stay at the Days Inn @ Woodward ready for tomorrow. We still have an outside chance of WAA Hailstorms tonight as the Low Level Jet cranks up yet again.

    post-24-1242311142_thumb.png

    Paul Sherman

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    Ok Paul, Woodward has always been lucky for us as Tom will tell you so have a good day, with only today and tomorrow we need to try real hard so a bit of a drive down to Big Springs Tx .

    Steve n Martin

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    You guys really can't keep away from that place! How many times to Childress is that now?! You will be well known in that town now!

    Anyway, might as well get down there even if it just ends up a night-time lightning fest - you will still be in range of tomorrow's risk.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
    Anyone out there????

    'Here' or 'there'? :rolleyes:

    Thursday 14th May:

    As I said earlier I reckon there's a good chance of some structure Vernon to Abilene axis from 00Z (sorry - big area I know).

    The 06Z NAM looked reasonable with a surface flow convergence initiating activity in a high CAPE environment, and 15Z RUC backs this up to some extent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk. (the UK's most easterley point) 131ft [40m] amsl

    Heyyy, they've got rotation................

    on a kiddies roundabout!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    we have now changed plan we are heading for childress as the slight risk has moved further north than earlier

    Bet ya if it was still a 'dry' county ya's wouldn't be goin back so often!! :rolleyes: ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

    Certainly some deep thought needs to go into your position for tomorrows outlook.

    Today heralds a small risk of moderate hail and localised thunderstorms around Abilene or just south of Cap Rock. Though IMO tomorrows risk could go moderate for southern Kansas. All it needs is the jet to drop a little further south.

    My virtual chase would see me blow out today for a good position in Pratt, Kansas! B under no illusion V2 are probably already on their way!

    PS. An early thread on tomorrow is in order!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
    Certainly some deep thought needs to go into your position for tomorrows outlook.

    Today heralds a small risk of moderate hail and localised thunderstorms around Abilene or just south of Cap Rock. Though IMO tomorrows risk could go moderate for southern Kansas. All it needs is the jet to drop a little further south.

    My virtual chase would see me blow out today for a good position in Pratt, Kansas! B under no illusion V2 are probably already on their way!

    PS. An early thread on tomorrow is in order!

    Yes the Vortex crowd have been doing a good job booking up all the motel space between Clovis and Springfield this last week by all acounts.

    Agree a thread for tommorow's thoughts and musings is required.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Yup, the Vortex2 crew are in large numbers because of the 'Largest ever effort in trying to understand tornadoes' which started on May10 until 13 June this year and from 1st May until 15 June next year.

    http://www.vortex2.org/home/

    Today they are traveling and repairing.

    SPC have issued todays slight risk update with slight risk of severe weather in C/E Kansas

    SPC AC 141958

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0258 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

    VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER PARTS

    OF WRN AND NRN TX...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN

    KS...

    ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

    PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE SLOW NWD

    RETREAT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING

    FROM CNTRL OK SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR MAF. AIR MASS ALONG AND S

    OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

    WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS

    BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND A

    WEAKENING CAP.

    GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM /I.E.

    MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/...DIABATIC HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG

    THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS TERRAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI

    FOR STORM INITIATION. RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE

    DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE. NONETHELESS...THE STRONGER

    STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE

    EVENING HOURS.

    ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT...

    NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT FROM WRN TX INTO THE

    MID/LOWER MO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO

    THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL

    MOISTURE FLUX BENEATH ERN EXTENSION OF EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME

    WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE INCREASING

    TO 1000-2000 J/KG. GIVEN 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK

    SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS

    CAPABLE OF HAIL. AS SUCH...HIGHER HAIL PROBABILITIES AND A

    CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

    ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH THIS EVENING...

    AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING

    MOIST CUMULUS CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF

    CNTRL PA SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH

    THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG

    SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO WRN

    QUEBEC.

    CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL

    CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH

    MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER SHEAR OVER PA/WV...TO

    500-1000 J/KG ACROSS KY/TN WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOTABLY WEAKER.

    AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY

    SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND

    PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

    ..MEAD.. 05/14/2009

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
    'Here' or 'there'? B)

    Thursday 14th May:

    As I said earlier I reckon there's a good chance of some structure Vernon to Abilene axis from 00Z (sorry - big area I know).

    The 06Z NAM looked reasonable with a surface flow convergence initiating activity in a high CAPE environment, and 15Z RUC backs this up to some extent.

    Hey thanks for reply I thought I was writing for the sake of it!! yep agree and did read your earlier post, still hope we can pick a singular cell on its lonesum its now 1630 no tops that we can see on Baron anyway, sitting fast at Colorado City i20 SW of Aberlene Tx

    Certainly some deep thought needs to go into your position for tomorrows outlook.

    Today heralds a small risk of moderate hail and localised thunderstorms around Abilene or just south of Cap Rock. Though IMO tomorrows risk could go moderate for southern Kansas. All it needs is the jet to drop a little further south.

    My virtual chase would see me blow out today for a good position in Pratt, Kansas! B under no illusion V2 are probably already on their way!

    PS. An early thread on tomorrow is in order!

    I hear that Tony, might have to be a biggy drive for us tonight and tomorrow to make Pratt but being the last day we will do it somehow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
    Hey thanks for reply I thought I was writing for the sake of it!! yep agree and did read your earlier post, still hope we can pick a singular cell on its lonesum its now 1630 no tops that we can see on Baron anyway, sitting fast at Colorado City i20 SW of Aberlene Tx

    I hear that Tony, might have to be a biggy drive for us tonight and tomorrow to make Pratt but being the last day we will do it somehow.

    I admire your perseverance, and to be honest I'm not sure why the discussion is so quiet on this one as the data I'm looking at is developing a few storms, possibly a decent hail producer, in the next three hours. Latest RUC has a sizable ppn core from 23Z to your northeast over Graham, and the model is being led by locally dropped-out cap, medium instability and plenty of juice. All we need is a kick - and I thought we'd get that from a surface convergence in wind flow. What's the surface wind vector where you are?

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
    I admire your perseverance, and to be honest I'm not sure why the discussion is so quiet on this one as the data I'm looking at is developing a few storms, possibly a decent hail producer, in the next three hours. Latest RUC has a sizable ppn core from 23Z to your northeast over Graham, and the model is being led by locally dropped-out cap, medium instability and plenty of juice. All we need is a kick - and I thought we'd get that from a surface convergence in wind flow. What's the surface wind vector where you are?

    Hi Neil from the Baron winds are SSE 18mph to my East@ aberlene, turning ESE at 12mph to my West at Great springs at the surface

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
    Hi Neil from the Baron winds are SSE 18mph to my East@ aberlene, turning ESE at 12mph to my West at Great springs at the surface

    That backs-up Windmapper. What I can't see are the 950mb wind fields but maybe with the frontal boundary stalling way to your north, and hardly any directional shear across it that I can see anyway, the initiation will have to come from topography if things are to get going. Looks like about 6/8 high cloud cover too, but this is clearing to your east.

    Here's hoping you get something to fire. I'm off as I have an early start in the morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    Its not to bad just Simpson clouds, we moved into clear air around midday, I must admit on the way down it was a tad more breezy than it is here, might have to think about a move, but will hang on a bit longer see if anything pops

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Latest visible satellite image showing quite a lot of cloud but looks well scattered with

    some large breaks, storms are well to the SW/Texas.

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    Thanks for the image, its not changed much them storms started south of the boarder in Mexico and have just spiraled north, its a long wait for us not knowing if it was worth the trip

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    In the Big T AFTER A MAMOUTH DRIVE !!! All i can say about what is now yesterday as it is now past 2am is ---OH MY GOD!!! and if some of you were looking at what I believe was the only supercell in the USA down at Lamesa tx you might have an idea!! to tired to think about what happened no tornado but a experience to remember, will post on Pauls new post in morning, phew!

    Steve and Martin

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Okay will open a Thread for you Steve

    Sounds Interesting Mate!

    We are in Witchita

    Good luck for your last day Mate

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Sounds like the trip was worth it in the end - looking forward to the report.

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