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Tropical Cyclone Aila


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Invest 98B has gained enough organisation to be classified a 35kt tropical cyclone. The system is still very broad, but is maintaining some deep convection over the centre and some increasingly defined banding features, particularly in the southern quadrant. 02B is in an environment of low shear, good poleward outflow and high sea temps. 02B is moving north along the western periphery of a steering ridge to the east anchored over Myanmar. In the good conditions, 02B is likely to intensify over the next 36hrs prior to landfall on the India/Bangladesh border. JTWC expect a peak of 55kts. 02B is likely to provide some damaging winds but more worryingly, some very high rainfall totals in a very vunerable area. The best of luck to the population out there.

post-1820-1243152604_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

02B is intensifying, and is now a 45kt storm named Aila. Aila will continue intensifying right up to landfall and may become a 65kt cat 1 before crossing the coast. Wind damage therefore is more of a concern than before, along with the torrential rains in Aila's convectional banding. Aila's core is tightening up rapidly with a CDO forming, which is the reason JTWC are being quite agressive with the intensity forecast. Landfall will occur in around 24hrs time, but communities around the Bangladesh/India border are probably already seeing weather conditions deteriorate as Aila is such a large storm. It's important not to focus on the LLC for this reason, the dangerous rains extend far out from the centre.

Latest imagery shows the increased organisation:

post-1820-1243184799_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Aila has developed an eye, and is now a 65kt, cat 1 cyclone on the SS scale. Aila is currently making landfall on the Bangladesh/India border, and should begin weakening as it tracks further inland over the next 24hrs. Aila is bringing extensive rainfall to the area along with damaging winds. Excellent poleward outflow may sustain Aila over land for longer than normal, and this may mean the adverse weather conditions may reach quite far north.

post-1820-1243240321_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Land interaction and increasing shear is weakening Aila on the brisk northwards heading. Intensity is reduced to 40kts. The LLC is still pretty well defined but convection is gradually becoming less organised. Aila should dissipate by morning.

Unfortunately, Aila has killed 14 people and this toll may rise:

http://www.mypopkorn.com/news/cyclone-aila...-in-orissa.html

The rains unfortunately are far from over yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

A more recent article puts the death toll now as 33, and Wikipedia claim it could be as high as 43, with many others missing. There are quite a few conflicting sources regarding the impacts from Aila, but sadly we know for certain this storm has claimed many lives.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/i...0090525?sp=true

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Great images above Cookie.

Death toll now risen above 200. Aila was only a 65kt, cat 1, but this shows what weaker systems can still do:

http://www.makfax.com.mk/en-Us/Details.aspx?itemID=4750

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
How long was she a cat 1?

Only a matter of a few hours just off the coast. Land quickly put paid to cat 1 status lasting any longer.

Death toll is now put at 253 :) . This number may continue to rise as around 500 people are still missing.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

the bad side to the beauty

india-flood-cp-w6772116.jpg

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/05/2 ... pdate.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090529/wl_ ... bangladesh

KOLKATA, India (Reuters) – Millions of people in India and Bangladesh remained marooned without food or water on Friday, four days after cyclone Aila hit them, and authorities said disease was becoming a serious problem.

The cyclone killed at least 275 people, but officials say the toll could mount due to epidemics in the aftermath.

Cyclone Aila hit parts of coastal Bangladesh and eastern India Monday, triggering tidal surges and floods and destroying hundreds of thousands of homes.

It caused extensive damage to rice and other crops but officials say they were still assessing the losses.

In the communist-ruled Indian state of West Bengal, at least 5.1 million people were displaced, with more than one million people stranded in Sundarban islands alone, most of them without any food or water, officials said.

At least 100 people have died in the eastern state.

"The situation is alarming and we need a lot of help to combat the outbreak of water-borne diseases," Kanti Ganguly, a senior West Bengal minister, told Reuters Friday.

Heavy rains triggered by the cyclone raised river levels and burst mud embankments in the Sundarbans delta, causing widespread flooding and triggering landslides.

The Indian Air force air-dropped supplies to remote islands in the Sundarabans Friday, and people scampered to grab packets of pre-cooked food, water and medicines, witnesses said.

"We are carrying out sorties every day and we have been able to cover some remote places today," Mahesh Upasani, a defense ministry spokesman, said in Kolkata, capital of West Bengal state.

In Bangladesh, more than three million people have been hit by the cyclone, and cases of diarrhea have broken out, due to an acute scarcity of drinking water.

The death toll from cyclone Aila in Bangladesh touched 175 after 15 bodies were found Thursday, mostly in southwestern Satkhira district, local officials and aid workers said on Friday.

Officials said hundreds of people were missing in the 15 affected districts, mostly on the coasts, where survivors desperately need food and drinking water.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Sounds horrific over there, can't imagine what these people are going through. This storm may not be as catastrophic as Nargis, but catastrophic nonetheless. Unfortunately this area is very vunderable to landfalling TC's which happens all to often.

Just to let you know the links don't appear to be working mate.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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