Chase 2009 Day 30 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

...TX PANHANDLE INTO W CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...

WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS W TX BENEATH 20-35 KT

WLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RATHER

WEAK OVER W TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA PROGRESSING

THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE

SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND THE DOWNSTREAM

TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY. STILL...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING AND

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW THE

DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG

AND TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS GENERALLY AOA 25 F.

MEANWHILE...LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THOUGH HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE

RELATIVELY WEAK AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PRIMARY

SEVERE THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS

GIVEN THE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THESE

FACTORS ALONG WITH LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL

SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...A FEW ELEVATED

STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP/PERSIST ACROSS NW

TX/WRN OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA WITH A DEVELOPING 30 KT LLJ.

Going to target the South East side of the Caprock today and hope the Magic occurs

Paul Sherman

[MAF]

Happy hunting Paul. fingers crossed you get some favourable stuff today.

[dogs32]

having Lunch in Plainview.......music to my ears..stream looking good

[Ross B]

Thats a busy road...

[Tom Lynch]

...TX PANHANDLE INTO W CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...

WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS W TX BENEATH 20-35 KT

WLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RATHER

WEAK OVER W TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA PROGRESSING

THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE

SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND THE DOWNSTREAM

TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY. STILL...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING AND

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW THE

DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG

AND TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS GENERALLY AOA 25 F.

MEANWHILE...LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THOUGH HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE

RELATIVELY WEAK AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PRIMARY

SEVERE THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS

GIVEN THE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THESE

FACTORS ALONG WITH LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL

SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...A FEW ELEVATED

STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP/PERSIST ACROSS NW

TX/WRN OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA WITH A DEVELOPING 30 KT LLJ.

Going to target the South East side of the Caprock today and hope the Magic occurs

Paul Sherman

For some strange reason you seem to like being east of the Caprock.

Tom

[AudMun]

At least if they end up heading NE they are guaranteed of a good reception from one hotel at the end of the day's chase! Hope they manage to get a storm like ours that night. :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

Already have that Hotel in my radar Stew!

Paul S

**Just waiting to see if the dryline can produce some magic**

[Paul Sherman]

Phew 92f and Dewpoint of 64f Here!

Cant even get out of the car

[AudMun]

Phew 92f and Dewpoint of 64f Here!

Cant even get out of the car

Plenty of heat then! :lol: Can I take there will be no sporting endeavours for those watching the streaming then?

[Paul Sherman]

Plenty of heat then! :lol: Can I take there will be no sporting endeavours for those watching the streaming then?

Oh go on then, will throw the ball to Aaron in a Mo

[Mammatus]

A good 12 kick-ups there Paul, nice skills.......

94F :lol:

[dogs32]

Paul Im sure you know we have MINIATURE mother ships HERE :lol:

well S/E that is........look forward to any action on the cam.its the waiting game

[Paul Sherman]

There you go - 20 At least :lol:

[AudMun]

There you go - 20 At least

It's that arm of yours that they'll grow to be fearful of! :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

Paul Im sure you know we have MINIATURE mother ships HERE :lol:

well S/E that is........look forward to any action on the cam.its the waiting game

Better than here - Pathetic pattern

[Mammatus]

There you go - 20 At least

Definately a good 20+ kick-ups there Paul. Good skills. :lol:

Right, competition whilst the storms build...............Nicks turn

[Paul Sherman]

Okay just Aaron and me at the mo - Nick and Mark gone to the shops

Patriotic Huh

Gonna get ya a Flag

Damn SW Wind :lol:

[Mammatus]

Wind does seem to be playing havoc with the kick-up competition. I counted about 15 there from Aaron :lol: Still a great effort in what looks like a gale force wind.

So, the winner is Paul with 20 plus kick-ups :wacko:

[Paul Sherman]

Okay we have a Severe Storm within 35 Miles so we are off South Shortly

Paul S

[Mammatus]

And there off :wacko:

Will be watching every second of this............lets hope the team bag a tornado.

[dogs32]

can see the cell :wacko:

how i miss them motherships

[Paul Sherman]

Cells on the Dryline are just not getting Going, looks like the 2 Supes to be on are near Pampa and Elk City today. Essentially unless we haul butt about 150 miles we aint seeing nowt today.

2 Options now, go for it or position for better chance tomorrow, how I hate missed Opportunities!

Not Happy

Paul S

[NL]

Satellite image showing cells SE of Lubbock, not particularly 'severe' but are dropping 3/4"-1" hail.

[MAF]

Looking very quiet out there according to the SPC Forecast. what are your plans Paul? rest day or searching for something?

[Paul Sherman]

Mick

If you read the SPC - Looks like there could be an Upgrade to a Slight Risk for Supercells so not all bad, some Models showing 4,000jkg of Cape but SPC Going with 1,500 to 2,500jkg of Cape.

Could be a good day in SW Oklahoma or NW Texas today.

Paul S