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Storm Risk Discussion Part 3

kold weather
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saint Rising Star

saint

Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
Posted
I still stand by my prediction that the Midlands may get a Thunderstorm tonight, if not a storm then at least some heavy rain. When I say Midlands though I don't mean Gloucestershire or Worcestershire. That is Western England to me :) When I say Midlands I mean Leicester, Rutland, Nottingham, Derby, Coventry, Birmingham, Northampton, Milton Keynes.

I have to say, Milton keynes is not the midlands! :lol: :lol:

Anyway still feels very humid here.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

Also worth watching for those in Sussex, a few decent returns within the MCS heading up towards you guys which is holding for now quite nicely. Needs watching though just in case it does suddenly decay like the batches before.

Still the dew points being higher does help out in keeping the storms going a little more, a moister atmosphere to work with.

Still looks like being a wet old night in the SE as well.

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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted
Why does everyone in the midlands seem so confident about storms tonight its all died out in SE england its just heavy/ torriential showers there now with the odd rumble ofm thunder.

I don't know! wishful thinking i guess!

However i have been outside and it has suddenly got incredibly humid! It has not felt this close all day in worcestershire!

What dos this mean? Im just confused right now

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted (edited)
I have to say, Milton keynes is not the midlands! :lol: :lol:

Anyway still feels very humid here.

I think it could be just about classed as in the center of England. It certainly isn't South East and it's not in East Anglia either. It's on the border betweeing being Midlands and South East.

Edited by andy_leics22
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ItIsGee Aficionado

ItIsGee

Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
Posted

no one noticed the heavy rain moving NE from Cardiff? Set to intercept Manchester or NW points? worth keeping an eye on me thinks!

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Actually, for AndyLeics, the showery batch moving through Wiltshire (not my part but approx 10/15 miles East), has a few strikes within it recently although on the NW radar they are plotted outside the rain. It's moving NNEish so may well affect Swindon/Oxford region for starters.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
I still stand by my prediction that the Midlands may get a Thunderstorm tonight, if not a storm then at least some heavy rain. When I say Midlands though I don't mean Gloucestershire or Worcestershire. That is Western England to me :lol: When I say Midlands I mean Leicester, Rutland, Nottingham, Derby, Coventry, Birmingham, Northampton, Milton Keynes.

What would be your trigger mechanism for the midlands Andy?.....I'm looking at infra-red satellite images, and regarding the area of showers over wilts and frontal cloud further west, the cloud tops dont look to be high enough for nocturnal cooling to be a factor...Maybe there will be lift from the cold front pushing eastwards overnight? I wouldnt have thought though that that particular factor would come into play for the midlands, east anglia perhaps later on during the night...

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Buckster76 Newbie

Buckster76

Posted
Posted

its like Essex !

I've never quite worked out whether we are...

(1) London area ...

(2) S-East

(3) East

I don't know! wishful thinking i guess!

However i have been outside and it has suddenly got incredibly humid! It has not felt this close all day in worcestershire!

What dos this mean? Im just confused right now

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted
Actually, for AndyLeics, the showery batch moving through Wiltshire (not my part but approx 10/15 miles East), has a few strikes within it recently although on the NW radar they are plotted outside the rain. It's moving NNEish so may well affect Swindon/Oxford region for starters.

Yeh i've had my eye on that for the past hour and a half, it has certainly gained strength and there is some red echos in the radar run!

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MR CB Apprentice

MR CB

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne
Posted (edited)

Just had to run back from seafront - brief downpour...much better than earlier - better lightning and thunder (little more frequent). Large drop rain is on and off. Still have my headache. BOOOOMMM!

Edited by MR CB
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maidstone weather Newbie

maidstone weather

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted (edited)
Just had to run back from seafront - brief downpour...much better than earlier - better lightning and thunder (little more frequent). Large drop rain is on and off. Still have my headache. BOOOOMMM!

send it this way :lol:

got bad hayfever in last hour, can only be a good sign this late in the evening! :lol:

Edited by maidstone weather
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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Distant flashs WAY WAY off to the south east

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted (edited)

We (those in the South and SE) need to hope that the band keeps it's intensity when it hits land...The next 25 mins should give us a good indicator.

The number of sferics has gone up as well according to this: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsbeobl.html

(click on Großbritannien)

Edited by Sno' problem
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)
Just had to run back from seafront - brief downpour...much better than earlier - better lightning and thunder (little more frequent). Large drop rain is on and off. Still have my headache. BOOOOMMM!

I hope you are right.

Noticed too that a slight breeze is picking up - I cant tell for sure about this, but it feels as though it is coming from the SE - can anyone else verify?

Certainly can see (thanks to the London illumination from the W) high cloud streaming in from the S/SW.

Could this breeze picking up be the shear you were looking for VillagePlank?

send it this way

got bad hayfever in last hour, can only be a good sign this late in the evening!

Doesn't surpise me really - I tried to gauge wind direction, and as I moved my arm the air felt heavy.

Edited by Harry
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Tn9 Seasoned

Tn9

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted
Distant flashs WAY WAY off to the south east

Low level cloud being drawn from the n-w here now

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted
What would be your trigger mechanism for the midlands Andy?.....I'm looking at infra-red satellite images, and regarding the area of showers over wilts and frontal cloud further west, the cloud tops dont look to be high enough for nocturnal cooling to be a factor...Maybe there will be lift from the cold front pushing eastwards overnight? I wouldnt have thought though that that particular factor would come into play for the midlands, east anglia perhaps later on during the night...

Lol well when I say Midlands I am talking about Central England, Midlands means Center after all doesen't it? I hate it when people class places like Worcester as the Midlands or Shrewsbury. They are clearly Western England, not far from Wales. Places like Leicester, Nottingham, Coventry, Birmingham and Northampton are in the center of England. I include Milton Keynes in that because it's Central England aswell. It's kind of on the border between being South East and the Midlands but because it's got a central location I class it as being Midlands.

Even though loads of people will shoot me down now for saying that.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Doesn't look that impressive on french radar , looks to have decayed somewhat. But who knows , its still muggy

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Heavy rain now. Also distant flashes to the south.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)
Low level cloud being drawn from the n-w here now

Cant say I've noticed to be honest - only the cloud streaming up from the South, and a breeze which feels like an increasing SE/E.

If there is cloud coming in from the NW, this will mean certainly some conversion taking place, and with that one of two things: Boom, or bust

EDIT - It has weakened some what but still quite intense enough, and as is being reported it is still producing some lightning. The next 30 mins are critical. I am going to try and see if any lightning appears before the rain arrives and I am at pains to wait for it to arrive (windows SE and NW, not S or SW)

Edited by Harry
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