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Storm Risk Discussion Part 3

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Just saw a flash to my north ? hmm , still the odd flash way off to the south east though

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Louby Aficionado

Louby

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Just seen lightning to the west with a distant grumble :lol: those on the kent border you are lucky duckies!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Not sure what to make of the latest MetO return.

Weakened here some what, but some massive intensification a bit to the West which has every chance of moving towards the S London/NW Kent area.

And what with this conversion zone now setting up above us - it will be a case of if it starts flashing and banging great, if it doesn't...nooooooo! lol

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Noctilucid Newbie

Noctilucid

Posted
  • Location: Romford
  • Location: Romford
Posted (edited)
Just saw a flash to my north ? hmm , still the odd flash way off to the south east though

Indeed you have a small developing cell to your North over Thames estuary, and a very powerful cell over the French coast, just goes to show where all the CAPE is being tapped into. :lol:

Edited by jshaw
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Lightningboy Newbie

Lightningboy

Posted
  • Location: Sandown Isle of wight
  • Location: Sandown Isle of wight
Posted

we had downpour from nowhere aswell but i dont know if there was thunder as i think i missed half of the shower look slike main ban is too far east for me again

by the way is it a good sign if lights start flickering if so then ours jsut flickered twice??

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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted

im gettin tired now! I have my window wide open just incase somthing happens, going out for a fag to check the skies, back up here to check any developments and if not it's lights out for me :D , Hope i will be able to do that :lol:

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Tn9 Seasoned

Tn9

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted
Just seen lightning to the west with a distant grumble :lol: those on the kent border you are lucky duckies!

Did you mean to your west ,like over Dorking,or your east like over my way??

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MPfreeUK Rookie

MPfreeUK

Posted
  • Location: Home/Work: Crawley, West Sussex.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder & Lightning, Snow, Wind
  • Location: Home/Work: Crawley, West Sussex.
Posted (edited)

I saw flash to north westerly direction started raining hard here now.

Edited by MPfreeUK
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

It does look like the 2 airmasses are merging in the center of the uk now. There appears to some more echos appearing and the SAT IR shows some stuff building.

The next hour will be interesting to watch.

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Wow that band of rain in Central Southern England has really kicked off now, it's pretty heavy stuff. That was home grown!

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Buckster76 Newbie

Buckster76

Posted
Posted

that "squall line" seems to be getting (over France) longer and more intense ?

not seen anything like it

you almost miss it as its almost white ..

It does look like the 2 airmasses are merging in the center of the uk now. There appears to some more echos appearing and the SAT IR shows some stuff building.

The next hour will be interesting to watch.

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YokTok Newbie

YokTok

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
I saw flash to north westerly direction started raining hard here now.

I'm only a few miles north of you here in Redhill and thought I saw a flash looking towards Crawley, can't believe how close it is at the moment, Couldn't goto sleep now even if i wanted to.

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LeeKay Rookie

LeeKay

Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffordshire. UK 159mtrs ASL
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffordshire. UK 159mtrs ASL
Posted

Listening in on the radio 150kHz LW or 530kHz MW You can clearly hear the activity. The showers pepping up the south central areas are becoming more intense, spot on as they are running into 300kj of cape. The Netweather extra radar (and overlays) have been invaluable today.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

No flashes or thunder to report here. With everything moving NE or NNE I wait patiently to see what will come of this Crawley/Redhill 'gossip', lol!

Breeze getting up a bit here too.

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

It's raining here in Northants for the first time today. Started about 2320. Not especially heavy, but large rain drops. Just been out in it, as you do at this time of night. Quite refreshing!

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Tn9 Seasoned

Tn9

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted
It does look like the 2 airmasses are merging in the center of the uk now. There appears to some more echos appearing and the SAT IR shows some stuff building.

The next hour will be interesting to watch.

Blimey,feels like i have done an 18 hour shift ,my eyes have gone monitor shape,and i have seen very little in the real world :wacko: :lazy:

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Louby Aficionado

Louby

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
Did you mean to your west ,like over Dorking,or your east like over my way??

Sorry, Nope I meant to the east :wacko: towards Kent. was a doofus moment. Haven't seen anything else since though.

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted
Listening in on the radio 150kHz LW or 530kHz MW You can clearly hear the activity. The showers pepping up the south central areas are becoming more intense, spot on as they are running into 300kj of cape. The Netweather extra radar (and overlays) have been invaluable today.

we've just had a very heavy shower here that started and stopped as if turning on and off a tap.

Also, at the back end of the shower was a little bit of hail, so....looking good methinks for the erm...middle midlands :wacko:

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)
Blimey,feels like i have done an 18 hour shift ,my eyes have gone monitor shape,and i have seen very little in the real world

Snap! Have been at the laptop almost non-stop since 9am this morning and watching patiently.

I can feel the moisture pouring through the window onto me - the room is not overly warm, but very muggy! It is raining steadily at the moment.

The PS3 is making a high pitch moaning sound like a tornado siren in the mid-west - these omens are really quite nasty, lol

EDIT - Rain getting heavier by the sounds of it. Am I the only one in the SE corner today who hasn't seen lightning or heard thunder? I mean, seriously, lol

Edited by Harry
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Here's the 18z skew-t chart for midnight, tonight:

post-5986-1243290415_thumb.png

These leaves us with likely thunderstorms (severe events very very unlikely) within a moderately convective environment. LI suggests nothing more than thunderstorms possible, and CIN has entered the equation so the convergence zone, or surviving imports, are now essential. CAPE is OK (particularly for this time of night) and is not surface based, but, as expected, and as forecast, it is at 925hPa.

That's how it reads for London. All parameters to drop off very quickly in the hour or so succeeding midnight, until, no chance about 3am.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Mammatus Apprentice

Mammatus

Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
Posted
Snap! Have been at the laptop almost non-stop since 9am this morning and watching patiently.

I can feel the moisture pouring through the window onto me - the room is not overly warm, but very muggy! It is raining steadily at the moment.

The PS3 is making a high pitch moaning sound like a tornado siren in the mid-west - these omens are really quite nasty, lol

Lol. You'll get your rewards Harry. I really think we are in for a pasting over the next 3 hours. BANG! :wacko:

Seasons

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