June CET

[tundra]

Are you serious? If the models are to be believed next week would certainly qualify as a heatwave in my book. You've got to think about the average temperatures- some places could see temperatures 9 or 10C above average next week so that has to qualify as a heatwave.

Also it was 28C at Heathrow today and 25-26C was seen quite widely, so I don't think it can be called media sensationalism. In fact quite the opposite, as the BBC has not really mentioned the potential heat next week.

I agree with what Damienslaw is saying though. I have also noticed how the weather forcasts on television really make a meal out of temperatures of 23-25c saying things like " temperatures tomorrow will be very warm with temperatures as high as 23-25c".

While temperatures next week are likely to be very warm or even hot, temperatures in the middle or end of June of 23-25c is no big deal.

[Stu_London]

Hadley CET - 14.3C to the 25th

Yesterday came in at 17.8C

15C very much still in the balance (18.3C needed from here)

[North-Easterly Blast]

Again we avoid a cool June - it is now 18 years since the last significantly below average June - 1991 (12.1) - more recently the relatively cool Junes of 1999 and 2008 were only very slightly below the long term average. We just don't seem to be able to achieve a proper below average June any more. Although it has to be said that in actual fact Junes did appear to have cooled since the 1960s; the 1951-80 June average was 14.3*C, the 1941-70 average 14.5*C, the 1931-60 average 14.6*C. The 1930s, 1940s, 1950s and 1960s all had very few really cool Junes - this changed in the 1970s and 80s when there were some much cooler Junes, and in the 2000s this trend has reverted to warmer Junes - the average for the 2000s looks set to be around 15*C.

We can now safely say that the 2000s will be the warmest decade for June since the CET record began in 1659.

Edited June 26, 2009 by North-Easterly Blast

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, and perhaps not that surprising really, because as Philip Eden has pointed out a few times, June is the only month that showed no warming at all between 1659 and 1999. In fact the 1980s and 1990s were both slightly cooler than the 1659-1999 average (14.1 and 14.2 respectively, as opposed to the average of 14.3). Thus it was only a matter of time before the warming trend evident in the other months of the year also manifested itself in June, which has become increasingly out of kilter with the other months of the year.

A similar thing happened with February during the 20th century up until the late 1980s, when Januarys and Decembers both warmed, while Februarys if anything showed a slight downward trend. This was soon "corrected" by an extreme step-change of about 1.5C. These days if anything it's December that is lagging behind the other two winter months.

[osmposm]

Now 14.5 (to the 26th), the closest it will get to my 14.4 guess - from here on in it'll just be higher and higher.

(This is the link for those who don't have it http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html )

[North-Easterly Blast]

Yes, and perhaps not that surprising really, because as Philip Eden has pointed out a few times, June is the only month that showed no warming at all between 1659 and 1999. In fact the 1980s and 1990s were both slightly cooler than the 1659-1999 average (14.1 and 14.2 respectively, as opposed to the average of 14.3). Thus it was only a matter of time before the warming trend evident in the other months of the year also manifested itself in June, which has become increasingly out of kilter with the other months of the year.

A similar thing happened with February during the 20th century up until the late 1980s, when Januarys and Decembers both warmed, while Februarys if anything showed a slight downward trend. This was soon "corrected" by an extreme step-change of about 1.5C. These days if anything it's December that is lagging behind the other two winter months.

Yes very true - the 2000s has seen the warmest January decade on record, and February the joint warmest with the 1990s. December rarely seems to be a really mild month nowadays, and if anything unlike other months of the year (Jan and Feb in particular) Decembers have cooled in the past 20 years; the warmest December of the 1990s was 6.4 (1994) and the warmest of the 2000s so far 6.5 (2006), whereas there were two Januarys and one February milder than this in the 2000s and three milder Februarys in the 1990s. Compare only two really mild Decembers in the last two decades with even milder Decembers in winters of the likes of 1953-54 and 1954-55 when far colder Januarys and Februarys followed them! And for a plus the Decembers of 1985 and 1986 were both above 6*C and much colder weather followed in Jan / Feb; also Dec 1984 was also relatively mild and very cold weather followed in Jan and Feb.

It remains a puzzling fact in the last two decades that whilst December shows no warming trend and if anything has been slightly colder, we are just not getting the cold weather in January and February

[damianslaw]

I agree with what Damienslaw is saying though. I have also noticed how the weather forcasts on television really make a meal out of temperatures of 23-25c saying things like " temperatures tomorrow will be very warm with temperatures as high as 23-25c".

While temperatures next week are likely to be very warm or even hot, temperatures in the middle or end of June of 23-25c is no big deal.

Perhaps I should have been clearer in my previous post in context of how I would classify a heatwave which is usually 5 days+ of average maxes across the whole CET area not just London! being above 28 degrees. We have not had this June. We haven't even had 3 days of such weather although starting from tomorrow could well run close to seeing this i.e. 3 days.

The next week will see a heatwave with much of the CET area from tomorrow onwards expected to see maxes of 28 degrees or above, lasting at least 5 days in duration.

In respect to Tundras post, yes I'm glad someone else has pointed out how loosely the BBC use the term hot or very warm aligning such terms to descirbe temps of 25 degrees, hot is above 30 degrees in my book, with very hot above 34 degrees. watch them start using the word very hot to decribe temps of only 30 degrees!

[Stu_London]

Now 14.5 (to the 26th), the closest it will get to my 14.4 guess - from here on in it'll just be higher and higher. :ph34r:

(This is the link for those who don't have it http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html )

26th came in at 17.5C (not as warm as some might imagine)

[Scorcher]

In respect to Tundras post, yes I'm glad someone else has pointed out how loosely the BBC use the term hot or very warm aligning such terms to descirbe temps of 25 degrees, hot is above 30 degrees in my book, with very hot above 34 degrees. watch them start using the word very hot to decribe temps of only 30 degrees!

I disagree, considering the average summer temperatures in the UK. I've spent quite a lot of time in the Midwest of the USA during June and July and most people there consider 28C to be hot despite it being their July average. To the vast majority of people in this country 30C will be seen as very hot, particularly with the humidity that will probably be around next week. If you finished a marathon in 30C temperatures I'm sure you would be calling conditions very hot at the end of it. There really has not been a lot of hype at all over this spell of weather at all, outside of the weather fans like ourselves. I'm not quite sure why you're trying to play it down, we didn't get a spell like this at all in 2007 and perhaps not in 2008 either.

[Snowly does it]

26th came in at 17.5C (not as warm as some might imagine)

Yeah Pershore failed to get above 19 for maxima

Minima of 15 to add to yesterdays though so something like 19.5 to come for yesterday and last night's minima iro 14 I think with a warmer day today to add in and the blowtorch last two days.

I tink finishing 15.1 or 15.2 on Hadley but Manley running 0.4 behind.... I guess 14.9 sounds like a reasonable, corrected, figure for the month now.

[The PIT]

More stubborn cloud than expected so my guess isn't looking to bad. I suspect the met office will continue too under estimate the cloud cover so temps not as high as predicted bar one or two lucky places.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I disagree, considering the average summer temperatures in the UK. I've spent quite a lot of time in the Midwest of the USA during June and July and most people there consider 28C to be hot despite it being their July average. To the vast majority of people in this country 30C will be seen as very hot, particularly with the humidity that will probably be around next week. If you finished a marathon in 30C temperatures I'm sure you would be calling conditions very hot at the end of it. There really has not been a lot of hype at all over this spell of weather at all, outside of the weather fans like ourselves. I'm not quite sure why you're trying to play it down, we didn't get a spell like this at all in 2007 and perhaps not in 2008 either.

Maybe the people in the USA could find it hard to "acclimatise" to such high summer temperatures, even though they're normal, because of the colder winter half-year temperatures that they are used to.

It is true that 30C is a more notable figure depending on where you live. Most years see 30C exceeded at some point in London, but even so, it's typically just a few days per summer. In contrast, at Sunderland, according to Dennis Wheeler, 30C has been exceeded just a few times in the last 100 years, and at nearby Cleadon, there was no maximum of 24C or above during the entire of 2007. The last time 30C was reached fairly widely near the Tyne & Wear coast was on 18th August 1996.

The summers of 2003 and 2006 were hardly normal- my weather records show those summers up as being even hotter than 1995, albeit due to higher minima. August 2003 and July 2006 both set record high temperatures for August and July respectively.

[Scorcher]

Maybe the people in the USA could find it hard to "acclimatise" to such high summer temperatures, even though they're normal, because of the colder winter half-year temperatures that they are used to.

It is true that 30C is a more notable figure depending on where you live. Most years see 30C exceeded at some point in London, but even so, it's typically just a few days per summer. In contrast, at Sunderland, according to Dennis Wheeler, 30C has been exceeded just a few times in the last 100 years, and at nearby Cleadon, there was no maximum of 24C or above during the entire of 2007. The last time 30C was reached fairly widely near the Tyne & Wear coast was on 18th August 1996.

The summers of 2003 and 2006 were hardly normal- my weather records show those summers up as being even hotter than 1995, albeit due to higher minima. August 2003 and July 2006 both set record high temperatures for August and July respectively.

You may have a point about the Americans and their winters, it could affect their views on what is hot during summer. Another point I would make is that their buildings are all very well air conditioned during the summer, so you actually notice the heat more when you're constantly stepping in and out of the cold buildings. In some buildings you see women wearing jumpers and cardigans because the air conditioning is so cold, I reckon a lot of places have it set at about 16 or 17C!

Agree about 30C not being a common phenomenon away from the South East. In my area we have not reached it since July 2006 and that month was exceptional as I think I recall the temperature reaching 30C on five days during the month. Before July 2006 you have to go back to August 2003 to find the last time 30C was officially recorded at Manchester Airport, although there was an unofficial reading of 30C at Hulme in July 2005. This area seems reasonably favoured for temperatures of 27-28C which is seen most summers, but the conditions have to be just right for the mercury to climb above 30C. I'd say on average it occurs once every 3 years in these parts.

[Optimus Prime]

Highest temperatuere I have recorded was 34.7c in July 2006. 2007 had a maximum of just 28.9c and 2008 29.2c. 2005 was 32.1c and 2004 30.3c.

2003 was 19.7c due to starting recording in October.

So far this year 27.2c, so almost beaton 2007 already.

Edited June 28, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[davehsug]

I thought that there was a met office definition of hot in the summer? As far as I knew it's 25c?

[GRHinPorts]

Yes very true - the 2000s has seen the warmest January decade on record, and February the joint warmest with the 1990s. December rarely seems to be a really mild month nowadays, and if anything unlike other months of the year (Jan and Feb in particular) Decembers have cooled in the past 20 years; the warmest December of the 1990s was 6.4 (1994) and the warmest of the 2000s so far 6.5 (2006), whereas there were two Januarys and one February milder than this in the 2000s and three milder Februarys in the 1990s. Compare only two really mild Decembers in the last two decades with even milder Decembers in winters of the likes of 1953-54 and 1954-55 when far colder Januarys and Februarys followed them! And for a plus the Decembers of 1985 and 1986 were both above 6*C and much colder weather followed in Jan / Feb; also Dec 1984 was also relatively mild and very cold weather followed in Jan and Feb.

It remains a puzzling fact in the last two decades that whilst December shows no warming trend and if anything has been slightly colder, we are just not getting the cold weather in January and February

Indeed. December is the only month of the year that has actually been colder in the past 12 years than the 1971-2000 average. I have visions of a strong correctional (record breaking!) mild month coming along soon. Perhaps 8-8.5C. With the El Nino present perhaps it will be this year. Snow lovers will be at their wits end

[Optimus Prime]

I thought that there was a met office definition of hot in the summer? As far as I knew it's 25c?

Yeah I think it's 25c which could be the reason why the BBC change the symbols to red. In my opinion hot is 30c or more.

It does change by location mind.

[Stu_London]

Hadley 14.8 to the 28th

Yesterday came in at 19.5C

15.1 or 15.2 looking the most likely unadjusted figure from here

[Don]

I have visions of a strong correctional (record breaking!) mild month coming along soon. Perhaps 8-8.5C. With the El Nino present perhaps it will be this year. Snow lovers will be at their wits end :lol:

:lol:

Winter 2008/9 will be the one to remember for a while me thinks.

[reef]

:lol:

Winter 2008/9 will be the one to remember for a while me thinks.

I certainly hope not, as it was abysmal here and along vast swathes of the east coast.

Its looking like a hot second half to June. If we finish on 15.2C provisionally, then the second half of June would have averaged 16.9C. Quite similar to 2005 in fact. Worth noting though that Manley is still on 14.5C, so there could be a large adjustment at the end of the month.

Despite early perceptions looking at the stats on Phillip Eden's site, it looks like it will have been an above average, sunny and pretty dry month almost everywhere.

[Roger J Smith]

Would beg to differ about what is considered hot in North America, in regions where July normal maxes are near 28 C then hot is usually 32 C or higher, in hotter areas, 35 or even 38 C is considered hot. In my experience people acclimatize to warmth and don't even notice days with highs around 28 C unless the humidity is unusually high.

Here on the west coast standards are probably more similar to UK standards, people around here notice 25 C as being very warm and any slight increase in humidity is noted; I was rather amused by it my first summer out here, when people reacted to 25/17 as "very humid" (thinking back to the 37/24 that I left behind in July 95, now that was humid).

Back in the good old Fahrenheit days, 90 was definitely the thresh-hold for "heat waves" and a few days around 85 would be more or less considered a bit on the warm side. But then in 1936 they had three days in a row in Toronto with 105 F highs, July 8 to 10, and these remain the three hottest days ever recorded there (the fourth highest was in 1911, the fifth tied 1911 and 1918, now wots all this about global warming, it hasn't broken 100 F in Toronto since September 1953).

[Scorcher]

Would beg to differ about what is considered hot in North America, in regions where July normal maxes are near 28 C then hot is usually 32 C or higher, in hotter areas, 35 or even 38 C is considered hot. In my experience people acclimatize to warmth and don't even notice days with highs around 28 C unless the humidity is unusually high.

Like here though, different people have different preferences. It's just from my experience, my friends from the midwest (I have friends in Chicago and in Michigan) say that they consider 82F and above to be 'hot', if it's humid anyway. My friend in Chicago told me that her family always use 82F as the benchmark for putting on the air conditioning. I know the weather stations have different ideas, and 90F is certainly the 'hot' mark for them in the US.

Edited June 29, 2009 by Scorcher

[reef]

Hadley is now running on 15.0C after yesterday came in at an astonishing 21.4C.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterdays max was 27.0C, so a very hot day.

Today could well average as high or higher, so 15.2C or 15.3C possible now before adjustment.

[Snowly does it]

Hadley is now running on 15.0C after yesterday came in at an astonishing 21.4C.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterdays max was 27.0C, so a very hot day.

Today could well average as high or higher, so 15.2C or 15.3C possible now before adjustment.

Today looks very similar - my rough calculations suggest 22.0 for today would get it up to a rounded up 15.3 before adjustments - very likely to be 15.2 before adjustments I think.

Looking at Manley I think it will be an adjusted 14.9-15.1 now

[Stargazer]

Highest temperature I have recorded was 34.7c in July 2006. 2007 had a maximum of just 28.9c and 2008 29.2c. 2005 was 32.1c and 2004 30.3c.

2003 was 19.7c due to starting recording in October.

So far this year 27.2c, so almost beaton 2007 already.

Here just down the road we've just broken 30 in the last couple of days, with 30.1 today. I was here on August 10 2003, when we got 35.0 - although I think the university recorded 36.8 - the difference is probably because it clouded over here earlier in the afternoon that day. Maximum in July 2006 here was 34.5, similar to yours.

As for the June CET - after the cool first half I'm surprised my guess of 14.7 has been exceeded by a fair margin.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Stargazer