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Day 32 - Slight Risk - Sth Texas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    We are probably going to have a change of plan and not head south, as the risk area will be too far south to drive to deep south TX. We are currently thinking of heading SW as this area will position us closer to tomorrow's risk area over SW TX. Though we will sstop for lunch in Stephenville then look at the 1700z update for day 2 from SPC, look at charts then make a decision on where to go.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Given the SPC 2 day outlook update and 12z model output for tomorrow - we will probably now head south to Fredericksburg - which is NW of San Antonio. Could be some storms south of there later, and gets us positioned to drop south of there for tomorrow's risk over Sern TX.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Looking very messy to the SW at the moment with the MCS dominating that region.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Thanks for posting that up NL, actually a nice cumulus field west and southwest of Fredericksburg where we are headed.

    Really crisp blue skies here in Stephenville, compared to the hazy blue skies yesterday, cold front to our south has scoured some moisture away - so we now have 55F instead of 73F Td's of yeaterday. Temp a comfortable 24C instead of mid 30s of yesterday.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    latest Meso Discussion issued a few minutes ago

    AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...WRN TN...SRN IL...WRN KY...SRN

    IND

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 271849Z - 272045Z

    CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

    MID MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY

    IS EVOLVING WITHIN A VERY BUOYANT AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW

    LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM...AND

    MLCAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG. LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND LONGER

    RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST TWO REMNANT MCS VORT CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NW

    OF SGF AND NEAR LIT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO FURTHER

    DESTABILIZE IT APPEARS A RATHER BROAD SWATH OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM

    ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE FROM NERN AR...NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN

    IL/IND...PARTLY DRIVEN BY AFOREMENTIONED UPPER VORT MAXIMA...BUT IN

    LARGE PART BY AFTERNOON HEATING. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

    IT APPEARS DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE

    STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR

    POSSIBLE WW.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Heres the RUC's take on atmospheric conditions around Fredricksberg Tx 5pm US time.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    The cumulus field to the SW of Fredricksberg , currently in Rocksprings has started to gain

    intensity, not severe by any stretch of the imagination but heading in the right direction,

    up to 18,000ft and half inch hail.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yes, can see those cells on Barons SW of Junction, still a long way to go down to the I-10, but will intercept those storms if they are still going when we get down there, we've just passed through Hamilton. Cells should move east which will give us an advantage.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    In 30-50 mins or so those cells have grown twice in size to around 38,000ft and traveling

    E/SE at around 6-12 mph, hope they keep intensifying, how far to intercept around 60-80 mile?

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Stopped in Lampasas, about 130 miles from storms near Rock Springs. Some cells popping up nearer south of Fredericksburg.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    SPC have issued Mesoscale Discussion /watch potential for lower Rio Grande valley area, way to the south west.

    296

    ACUS11 KWNS 272057

    SWOMCD

    SPC MCD 272056

    TXZ000-272200-

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0356 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE

    VALLEY

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 272056Z - 272200Z

    TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS

    OF EDWARDS PLATEAU AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DESPITE MODEST

    DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL

    FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR

    A POSSIBLE WW.

    ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY

    FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM EDWARDS TO TRAVIS COUNTY PER 20Z

    SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS. WWD-MOVING N/S-ORIENTED OUTFLOW

    BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM MEDINA TO JIM HOGG COUNTIES BEFORE ARCING

    E-SEWD TOWARDS BRO. TO THE WEST OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND S OF

    FRONTAL ZONE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH

    DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HAVE AIDED IN A VERY

    UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW

    IS PALTRY /PER AREA VWP DATA/. HOWEVER...MODERATE HIGHER-LEVEL WINDS

    MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE LARGE

    BUOYANCY.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

    Hi team

    Hope you all well. I am following your daily trips with interest. If I can help anyway just shout. I liked yesterdays photos.

    Tom

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Near Johnson City, got anvil on stream of storms to south of us south of I-10 ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
    LOOKS LIKE a nice Supercell in front :(

    any rotation on that Tom B)

    edit...that thing is huge

    Nice to hear from you Pat. Danny suggested that you send me the clip where we were nearly hit by the CG co that I can tie it in with my video to get the same strike from different angles.

    Tom

    Radar picture for you

    post-2466-1243463788_thumb.png

    Tom

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    Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
    Nice to hear from you Pat. Danny suggested that you send me the clip where we were nearly hit by the CG co that I can tie it in with my video to get the same strike from different angles.

    Tom

    Radar picture for you

    post-2466-1243463788_thumb.png

    Tom

    hi Tom...in the next 5 days i will post you a few data dvds...pm nearer the time...

    sorry back on topic

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Just booking in and dumping our stuff in the Super 8 in Fredericksburg, then will head south to play with the storms NW of San Antonio. Barons shows 2" hail which is golf ball size :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
    Just booking in and dumping our stuff in the Super 8 in Fredericksburg, then will head south to play with the storms NW of San Antonio. Barons shows 2" hail which is golf ball size :(

    Nick

    Storm Lab show cell to the north west of a town called Boerne has meso & 4" hail. It is currently moving 23 MPH in a ne direction

    Tom

    That cell is just to the South East of Comfort heading to the NNE .

    Iwill leave you chap to go hunting and want to see those photos tomorrow.

    Tom

    Yes please Pat whenever you can.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    'nado #1

    2110 2 SE MENDON MERCER OH 4065 8449 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY IN A FIELD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THOMAS ROAD AND MERCER AUGLAIZE COUNTY ROAD. (ILN)

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    Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

    Is the live feed down? (Or maybe they are checking in at the hotel still)??

    EDIT: Just as I say that it appears!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
    Is the live feed down? (Or maybe they are checking in at the hotel still)??

    Yup, i dont think they have as good a signal in Southern Texas if i remember correctly.

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