Storm Risk Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

Tomorrow, looks like SE Wales across to SW Midlands maybe favoured for thunderstorms to develop along a convergence zone running NE out of the Lower Severn Valley. This will be dependant on cloud clearance however. Showers likely to break out elsewhere across Midlands and Sern England away from South Coast which will probably stay dry ...

Sounds great for here tomorrow but cloud cover may be an important factor-that wants shifting!

[azores92]

Well if it's dependent on cloud clearance then I'll doubt I'll see anything. The cloud never seems to want to break when it comes to the development of storms.

Will have to wait and see but I'm not holding my breath.

its not always about clear skies with showers you know....

[A.J]

Blimey I'm stuck under an absolute downpour here, quite a nasty cell, which has barely moved for the past hour!.....No sferics though, but jeez, some serious rain!

Its a strange looking cell on radar, the precip is almost like a hook.....If I saw this image in the Great Plains on the doppler, I'd be wetting my pants...

[Costa Del Fal]

Blimey I'm stuck under an absolute downpour here, quite a nasty cell, which has barely moved for the past hour!.....No sferics though, but jeez, some serious rain!

Its a strange looking cell on radar, the precip is almost like a hook.....If I saw this image in the Great Plains on the doppler, I'd be wetting my pants...

Im watching this one because its ever so slowly moving S/SSE and as its slow moving there could be alot of rainfall here! Its kept its intensity very well too.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I think Darren Corbett said something about energy in the day may spark off some drizzle for the SE, so something to watch out for down there.

Who is a Darren Corbett?

[Tn9]

Storm forecast issued by UKASF

Regions Affected

East Anglia, West & East Midlands, Home Counties, West Country and much of Wales ( most of the UK, excluding the Northern Isles, Western Isles and Northern Ireland, are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

A trough over north Wales and southern parts of Northern England will provide outbreaks of heavy, locally torrential, rain during Wednesday, moving slowly northeastwards and developing during the day. Scattered showers are forecast to develop to the north of this area of rain, especially across inland parts of Northern England and Scotland, although these showers are not expected to be thundery. However, to the south of this area of rain, across much of England, Wales and perhaps southeast Ireland also, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop fairly quickly during the late morning and afternoon. With a slack airflow, and light winds, the showers will be very slow moving and could give high rainfall totals in a short space of time. The south coast, and parts of the Southeast, may have a mostly dry day, especially during the afternoon. Hail, thunder and lightning may accompany the showers/storms. Any showers/storms that do develop will only slowly decay during the evening as the pulse of heavy rain continues to move northeastwards across northern England into Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-214/

Thats it im jacking,like Nick F to Harry,it will drive you insane,ive been up on my roof ,ripped the weather vane off and lobbed over next doors garden,kicked my weather sensors all round the garden,made a fire with my weather books,and im going to have a neckbrace fitted so i cant look up in the sky.know wheres my valium

[MP-R]

Sweet FA here at the moment but it looks like quite a heavy cell has developed over the last hour over Merthyr Tydfil and doesn't seem to be moving either. Don't think there are any sferics associated with it though.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I made a mistake it's Dan Corbett from BBC weather.

Hows the storms?

[jo200199]

Just started to rain here, Ebbw Vale, S.Wales. Is there storms expected here overnight?? On Saturday the lightning busted my power supply so I don't want to leave the PC on if there is any due

[A.J]

remarkable weather here in South Staffs...We've had heavy rain for the past 3 hours, this in itself isnt very remarkable, what is though, is that its from the same cell, which has remained virtually stationery....very odd indeed!

couple of radar grabs to illustrate....

1955hrs

2055hrs

2150hrs

2225hrs (latest image)

The cell looks to have gone through 2 - 3 distinct cycles of regeneration, and has probably moved no more than 10 miles in the past 3 hours...There is a modicum of CAPE ( 70-100J/Kg) but no lift to speak of, and certainly no heating, inra-red sat suggests relativley warm cloud tops, so nocturnal cooling doesnt seem to be a factor...So one for Paul S and the experts, whats keeping this cell going?

[Nick F]

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