Storm Risk Discussion

[Lewis]

Good Morning everyone, just woke up, got the flu Hope it's not swine flu cos i have never felt this bad. Its only 15.7c here but its really humid and whats even weird given the wind direction the wind is very warm! Is there any chance of hull seeing anything thundery today? I have not been following it etc. I know theres some rain approaching me from the south thats affecting lincs at the moment, netweather lightning radar showing Sferics in it.

Thanks in advance

[Costa Del Fal]

i take it back blizzards, todays rainband has really been a non-event, with only some moderate rain with the odd heavy burst, looks to be clearing fairly quickly. that said, i think we have had about 35mm of rainfall in the last few days.

Lol, it certainly has been quite wet! Looking at Sat24 breaks in the cloud are nuding into the far South Midlands now.

[dogs32]

If that area N.France spirals up and intensifies the South coast might get a show later...not much in the way of sferics yet...but plenty of time for the tail end of Charley

[VillagePlank]

Can see some nice towers, and darkening skies towards the south!

Long time to wait for the next forecast skew-t's so here's a quick lookie see ...

Towers rising from the area of forecasted instability, already, at 1000hPa, by observation. This is a good sign. Vertical motion was not expected to be good at the surface:

However, look what happens once these towers reach 700hPa:

Once they get there they should explode OK ramping a bit.

Forecast K, and TT indices show that convection initiation should be quite difficult (see the VP Stormcard), but once it's got going it confirms the vertical advection charts above. Standard storm parameters, CAPE, and LI, from latest GFS looks like this with the entire risk centre moving to the S, and E, which concurs with Nick F's forecast, Estofex, Torro's and others ...

Without wanting to ramp too much, the shear, along with all other factors may see a brief and very isolated very severe storm at some location in the S/E. All indicators, I would suggest go for the City of London, perhaps marginally a little bit more North, and West (Wembley?)

Edited June 7, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Louby]

some nice convection to the west towards Reigate and Sutton

[kaz]

i have some lovely cloud pics sun is out now so fingers x it will give them a bit of a boost.

kaz x

[tinybill]

Long time to wait for the next forecast skew-t's so here's a quick look see ...

Towers rising from the area of fore casted instability, already, at 1000hPa, by observation. This is a good sign. Vertical motion was not expected to be good at the surface:

However, look what happens once these towers reach 700hPa:

Once they get there they should explode OK ramping a bit.

Forecast K, and TT induces show that convection initiation should be quite difficult (see the VP Storm card), but once it's got going it confirms the vertical advocation charts above. Standard storm parameters, CAPE, and LI, from latest GFS looks like this with the entire risk center moving to the S, and E, which concurs with Nick F's forecast, Estofex, Torro's and others ...

Without wanting to ramp too much, the shear, along with all other factors may see a brief and very isolated very severe storm at some location in the S/E. All indicators, I would suggest go for the City of London, perhaps marginally a little bit more North, and West (Wembley?)

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom...x=193&y=259

looks like showers now appearing in the south east soon with the low heading ne towards the uk soon

[Snowyowl9]

Just shows who will be stuck under the rainband all day looking at these very low temps for June.

http://91.121.93.17/wz/pics/Rmgfs094.gif

Been a very active rainband with squally east wind for a time and very heavy rain and cold 8.6c.

Edited June 7, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Timmead]

19.2 mm of Rain overnight, with 4 IC flashes and attendant thunder accompanying torrential rain at ~0700.

Looking good for more action today, starting with those cells just SW of London.

[VillagePlank]

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom...x=193&y=259

looks like showers now appearing in the south east soon with the low heading ne towards the uk soon

I think your spell checker doesn't seem to like the words forecast and advection

[dogs32]

Kaz.....you need to trim then trees

nice pics.like the bird in flight...

nice potent showers starting to spread down South

Edited June 7, 2009 by dogs32

[Nick F]

If that area N.France spirals up and intensifies the South coast might get a show later...not much in the way of sferics yet...but plenty of time for the tail end of Charley

IMO don't think any of the storms over Brittany will make it over the Channel, just the rain around the low centred there, trouble is the airmass over Sern England and NW France is only unstable to surface heating - so any storms are only likely to develop and stay overland. Pleny of convection inland over Sern counties right now in the clearer skies, helped by an onshore Breeze and uplift of South Downs/North Downs and Dorset Downs and higher ground of Salisbury Plain

[Katherine]

Just had some thunder and lightning here!

[Harry]

Those radar returns across southern counties are looking nice!

Sky looking a bit messy here at the moment, which may affected convection! Though, we are at the earliest part of the day, and who knows what will happen as the low moves across to the south

[dave48]

We have had a lot of good convection here this morning, nice blue skies down here too, can see a nice Cb now so hopefully the skies will keep clearing further north, looks fairly good for some little storms this afternoon.

[Harry]

Changing here now, what was looking mess is now looking more and more organised.

A cell coming right overhead, which I have a great feeling, will turn thundery within the next 30 mins to an hour. It seems to be moving N (ish), darkening base! Cant say specifically why, it just feels like it will turn!! Good luck you chaps to my North.

Meanwhile I have a huge cauliflower to my S following behind this overhead cell!

[maidstone weather]

Changing here now, what was looking mess is now looking more and more organised.

A cell coming right overhead, which I have a great feeling, will turn thundery within the next 30 mins to an hour. It seems to be moving N (ish), darkening base! Cant say specifically why, it just feels like it will turn!! Good luck you chaps to my North.

Meanwhile I have a huge cauliflower to my S following behind this overhead cell!

massive 'cell' with a 'pointy' top right outside my window to the west. Looks pretty dramatic :lol:

[Harry]

Finally, I can see brightness on the horizon, the main band of rain is nearly gone and may I just say that the Meto were accurate with this one. All is good again :lol:

The one overhead is getting darker and darker - fear though should it 'deliver' it will have slided past. Though to my south, one cell especially has an exceptionally dark base; I get the impression it is towering nicely but I cant see for this one on top of my house. I presume this is what you can see MW to your West.

[maidstone weather]

sferic near Chulmleigh, mid-Devon

[tinybill]

est Portsmouth area in about an hour time can expect heavy rain, and the south east heavy showers later this afternoon if the low stick to the way its going at the moment

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom...x=175&y=279

[dogs32]

Devon is looking interesting now..or in Kaz's part of the world

with some heavy returns on radar

Edited June 7, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

What is the expectation on the area of precip to the South? Seems to have undergone some intensifcation in the last hour :lol: and at the moment looks like it might run up over us this evening.

Thoughts?

[maidstone weather]

more sferics over C + N Devon

[Harry]

more sferics over C + N Devon

That's not good for them I feel - the last thing they need is more heavy rain, especially on T'storm proportions!

Some more here would be nice though :lol: am keeping a curious eye on that hook around the L pressure in the channel/N France! Am hopeful that if it follows the same pattern as last night, we may get some intense rainfall at least, may be a banger or two :lol:

EDIT - Well, those cells came to much didnt they...lol! They looked so promising, then, disaster! I know its early in the day, but most indications have been for an early initiation as opposed to late. I am thinking all eyes south to see how far north that pulse gets around the LP

Edited June 7, 2009 by Harry

[dogs32]

yes looking interesting in Cornwal and Devon now.....sferics on the increase :lol:

also slowly growing up towards Bristol

Edited June 7, 2009 by dogs32