Convective/storm Discussion

[Tony Gilbert]

8.20am Thurs

Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers E.York through to Kent, UK 12Z-20Z Thurs 11th June 09

Slight Risk of Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Southern Portion of E.Anglia 15Z-18Z

With fairly clear skys expected early on today along east coastal regions we can expect to see a steady increase in temp. Upper cold pooling rapidly slides south destabilising and increasing lapse rates for the said region. Vertical wind shear increases with height and is borderline conducive to the development of an isolated severe thunderstorm. Particular attention to this based on the GFS is given to the southern E.Anglia counties where some convergence or backing of winds could occur late in the day. Any increase in low level shear will most certainly bring the risk of an isolated tornado event into the equation.

Prime threat today looks to be strong gusts (non severe) and moderate hail falls. Though, the risk of a severe thunderstorm and tornado cannot be ruled out as per red box.

Certainly requires monitoring today!

[Nick F]

New thread for today ...

[Odd Spot]

Morning people. Well that is what you call thundery rain yesterday.

Could not report on here as I was in the pub . Just had a scan through the thread and noticed the sheffielders report of the amonts of rain.

About the same around here. Started at around 5.10pm and absolutley nailed it down. Quite a bit of thunder and lightning as well. Going on reports it sounds like one of the main routes into Chesterfield was flooded again (Hornes Bridge) as of 2007.

Measuring the rainfall. Don't know if you can call it a accurate reading, but there was a couple of pint pots on the bench outside the pub and they had around two inch of rain in them (landlords probably put it back into the barrel )

Get ready for the grass to grow fast in the next few days now.

OS

[Essex Boy]

Yipee, I live in the red box! Bet I dont see much action though! Some dark looking clouds in the horizon, so we shall see if anything unfolds....

[Harry]

Wrong edge of the boxes yesterday, wrong end of the boxes today!

That's about it for the time being - I need to get slightly more work done today! lol

EDIT - Does look promising for around here - I would expect today to see, under slightly clearer skies, storm development and then painfully watch them drift towards EA! Think though its ever so slightly more promising for C London today than yesterday.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Harry

[The PIT]

Morning people. Well that is what you call thundery rain yesterday.

Could not report on here as I was in the pub . Just had a scan through the thread and noticed the sheffielders report of the amonts of rain.

About the same around here. Started at around 5.10pm and absolutley nailed it down. Quite a bit of thunder and lightning as well. Going on reports it sounds like one of the main routes into Chesterfield was flooded again (Hornes Bridge) as of 2007.

Measuring the rainfall. Don't know if you can call it a accurate reading, but there was a couple of pint pots on the bench outside the pub and they had around two inch of rain in them (landlords probably put it back into the barrel )

Get ready for the grass to grow fast in the next few days now.

OS

Yet a collegue of mine reports hardly any rain at meadhow head and then just steady rain later so they'd would have had less than us. Shows the beauties of T Storms

[Nick F]

N-W forecast for today now viewable here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Harry]

MW, TN9 and neilsouth should be quite pleased with that I feel!

I wont be back in Kent until between 6 and 7pm this evening, which by reading the synopsis seems a better place to be than London later today.

That said "after dark" wont happen until 10pm onwards so I have a chance.

Though I promise I will behave today, compared to my verging on hysteria and lunacy yesterday

[Neilsouth]

MW, TN9 and neilsouth should be quite pleased with that I feel!

Yes , yes i am

No clear skies here though , tis cloudy

Edited June 11, 2009 by neilsouth

[Harry]

Yes , yes i am

No clear skies here though , tis cloudy

Its reasonably bright here - some Cu floating about but some decent sunny spells in between. Feels a damn sight warmer than yesterday - bit more humid too. Does appear though to be a far stronger breeze aloft - clouds got some pretty decent speed on them.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Harry

[sunny scunny]

Sunny here but clouds are building up. Im hoping for a lot more luck than yesterday

[Harry]

Seems to be something up Lincolnshire way developing (shame the weather radar maps don't show county borders)

[sunny scunny]

Seems to be something up Lincolnshire way developing (shame the weather radar maps don't show county borders)

Yes, a few showers are breaking out,but unfortunately they are just to my north and south

the shield is working great lately for my area

[Lewis]

Well its my turn too see some thundery showers/thunderstorms today, but whats the chance i dont get a bloody thing lol. As i look outside the window now, some towers kicking around with some darker patches of cloud some of it looks hazed around the cumulonimbus's, it's all high level stuff, convection is defenetly starting. Met office have already launched a weather warning for me. So fingers crossed.

[BrickFielder]

<b>South Coast and Kent.</b>

A low level wind convergence zone is expected to set up affecting a region roughly from the Isle of Wight through to Kent which is expected to spark some convective activity.

Where lapse rates are steepest in the eastern part of Kent some storms could develop. Winds look fairly unidirectional here but do increase with height. Cloud tops look rather limited and low level moisture is not as abundant as it might have been. So the prime risk will be from flooding and hail from slow moving heavy showers with perhaps a slight risk of convergence type weak tornados or funnels. Slight risk of a severe storm for the very eastern part of Kent if an isolated storm can tower up above expected cloud tops, but recent satellite pictures suggest things are moving east slightly more quickly than the models anticipated.

<b> North East Coast </b>

Another weak convergence zone may set up through the north east parallel to the coast. Surface temperatures look a lot weaker here and winds aloft are not as strong. Again cloud tops are not particularly high, but an odd storm cannot be ruled out. Prime risk would be from localized flooding from slow moving showers with perhaps an outside risk of a convergence type funnel, although unlikely due to weak updraft strengths. This does however rely on a weak surface low being out in the North Sea which may not be going according to forecasts based on the latest satellite pictures.

<b>East Anglia </b>

Surface heating is forecast to set of a few thunderstorms here and with cold pooling aloft more concentrated cloud tops should be slightly above other regions of the UK. Winds look fairly unidirectional but do build with height so any splitting storms or those forming at outflow boundary's could pose a slight tornado risk. I am not really convinced that updraft strengths will be high enough or that there will be enough wind aloft for updraft and downdraft separation. The prime risk here appears to be from localized flooding, hail and lightning, but again current satellite pictures suggest things may not be going quite according to plan.

[Lewis]

<b>South Coast and Kent.</b>

A low level wind convergence zone is expected to set up affecting a region roughly from the Isle of Wight through to Kent which is expected to spark some convective activity.

Where lapse rates are steepest in the eastern part of Kent some storms could develop. Winds look fairly unidirectional here but do increase with height. Cloud tops look rather limited and low level moisture is not as abundant as it might have been. So the prime risk will be from flooding and hail from slow moving heavy showers with perhaps a slight risk of convergence type weak tornados or funnels. Slight risk of a severe storm for the very eastern part of Kent if an isolated storm can tower up above expected cloud tops, but recent satellite pictures suggest things are moving east slightly more quickly than the models anticipated.

<b> North East Coast </b>

Another weak convergence zone may set up through the north east parallel to the coast. Surface temperatures look a lot weaker here and winds aloft are not as strong. Again cloud tops are not particularly high, but an odd storm cannot be ruled out. Prime risk would be from localized flooding from slow moving showers with perhaps an outside risk of a convergence type funnel, although unlikely due to weak updraft strengths. This does however rely on a weak surface low being out in the North Sea which may not be going according to forecasts based on the latest satellite pictures.

<b>East Anglia </b>

Surface heating is forecast to set of a few thunderstorms here and with cold pooling aloft more concentrated cloud tops should be slightly above other regions of the UK. Winds look fairly unidirectional but do build with height so any splitting storms or those forming at outflow boundary's could pose a slight tornado risk. I am not really convinced that updraft strengths will be high enough or that there will be enough wind aloft for updraft and downdraft separation. The prime risk here appears to be from localized flooding, hail and lightning, but again current satellite pictures suggest things may not be going quite according to plan.

Dunno if this helps you already but theres a thunderstorm around 12 miles South East of me, flash's lightning and heard a really loud rumble. Things kicking off early here.

[dogs32]

i kNow we are not forecast anything but we ahve some nice sonvection to my North West

[R0b]

Wooo, just heard a lovely rumble of thunder here in Hull.

Were abouts are you Lewis? I am in Anlaby, HU10 area.

Rob

Also, im a bit of newbie to this, but when i look on the rain radar i cant see anything remotely close to us.

Thanks

[Lewis]

Wooo, just heard a lovely rumble of thunder here in Hull.

Were abouts are you Lewis? I am in Anlaby, HU10 area.

Rob

HU9 area mate, Bilton

And regarding nothing on the radar, due to rapid convection the radar wont pick it up as quick. Its rogue showers popping up all over, they will appear to be light on the radar but this does not mean they can contain sferics, i remember once a few summers ago, it was so dry it was just constant lightning and thunder, not one drop of rain

Edited June 11, 2009 by Lewis

[R0b]

Thanks for that Lewis.

Shame i wanted some nice heavy rain

Rob

Edited June 11, 2009 by R0b

[Lewis]

HU9 area mate, Bilton

And regarding nothing on the radar, due to rapid convection the radar wont pick it up as quick. Its rogue showers popping up all over, they will appear to be light on the radar but this does not mean they can contain sferics, i remember once a few summers ago, it was so dry it was just constant lightning and thunder, not one drop of rain

The sun is coming out again here, and this is our tonic for thunderstorms today. The GFS etc is predicting a lot of cloud, which falls inline with brickfielders posts. If we get enough breaks (Sun) it will aid convection and we may see some decent surface based storms.

[R0b]

The sun is coming out again here, and this is our tonic for thunderstorms today. The GFS etc is predicting a lot of cloud, which falls inline with brickfielders posts. If we get enough breaks (Sun) it will aid convection and we may see some decent surface based storms.

Nice, i like the sound of that!

Its so close to the time of the floods 2 years ago. Was a pain to clean up but i have never see so much rain in all my life! lol.

So whats your occupation then Lewis?

Rob

[dogs32]

very large Nimbus's here.....large showers building to my West...

[Lewis]

Nice, i like the sound of that!

Its so close to the time of the floods 2 years ago. Was a pain to clean up but i have never see so much rain in all my life! lol.

So whats your occupation then Lewis?

Rob

Yeah i agree with you on that, i was living in the HU8 (Ings area) during the floods, i would of been ok if it was not for council on ings only 3 streets was flooded, mine was one of them.

Regarding my occupation i'm a web designer and i look after my 2 kids too, so you could call me a house man also ..

I got laid off at Comet PLC i was a business advisor in the business section.

[R0b]

Sorry to hear it.

Yes i am a web designer to.

I own an IT Solutions company near ST Andrews Quay, called EYTech.

Have you got any examples of your work?

Thanks.

Rob