Its Ever So Peaceful And Quiet........

[Cookie]

ALL IS QUIET- EVERYWHERE

Just 24 hours ago, it looked like there would be a tropical depression in the east Pacific. This morning, that feature is almost gone completely. In fact, the entire globe is void of any tropical cyclones. There are not even too many suspect areas to monitor either. I have no explanation as to why we are seeing this lack of tropical cyclone activity. Water temps are plenty warm in the usual areas of development and are in fact warmer than normal in most of the Pacific (hence the threat of El Nino). So there must be something else going on that is beyond the obvious. I will have to look in to it and ask a few questions of people who should be able to help out with this. I also will look in to how long the east Pacific has ever gone before seeing its first named storm. The season began there on May 15- we've made it almost a month without a single tropical storm in that region. Amazing. There is also very little indication that things will change anytime soon. None of the long range computer models suggest that we will see tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next 5-10 days. As for the rest of the world's ocean areas, we'll just have to see which region pops first. It's bound to happen sooner or later. For now, the tracking maps will remain blank. I'll have more tomorrow morning.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

anyone want to take a stab at why its so quiet other then it being el Nino related?

[Somerset Squall]

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

anyone want to take a stab at why its so quiet other then it being el Nino related?

Will be interesting to see what the next blog says. The lack of activity isn't that amazing in the east Pacific (yet), as your post in the invest thread shows Cookie. But if nothing forms in the next week or so then yes, it would be very unusual.

We are, historically, just coming out of the quiestest time of year for tropical cyclones. There is a real lack of anything happening at the moment and I would really expect things to pick up soon. Having said that, it's only two weeks since the last cyclone (TD 1 in Atlantic) dissipated. Overall, I would say things aren't all that unusual but if this persists for the next couple weeks then perhaps I'll take that back.

(West Pacific will probably pick up soon, though we only have to look back to 2007 to see that there were no storms at all in June)

[Cookie]

am I right in saying that longest period with no worldwide named systems is 33 days set in 2007?

[chionomaniac]

The colder SST's in the normal breeding grounds must surely be having some influence on the tropical thunderstorm development,

[kold weather]

Hmmm it certainly is quite slow out there I have to admit. I think there are several reasons but globally we are in a much slower period in terms of Tropcial cyclones then probably anytime since the mid 70s. This is no doubt related to the extended Solar min we are in, in the end its bound to slowly moderate temps globally downwards which reduces TC numbers in turn.

I've noticed the EPAC tends to actually have been rather slow in June throughout quite a few of the more recent El Ninos, 2002 struggled to get a system, 2004 didn't get a June system and neither did 2006 which waited till mid July for Blas. It has been very quiet despite that and the WPAC has also struggled quite alot to develop anything.

The reason the EPAC and the Atlantic have struggled are likely due to the same reason. A fairly strong jet streak seems to have formed near regions 1+2 of the ENSO zones (eastern most section) which has ripped through the region that is most likely to get June cyclones. 91E is the perfect example of that. This same jet streak also seems to be playing a fairly large role in shearing the living hell out of anything in the Cairbbean and Gulf, the regions most prone for Atlantic TC's. The only systems that seem to have had a shot are fronts that slowly work thier way to the surface as a low and have enough energy to keep sending up convective bursts. This was the way that Td1 formed as well, classic El Nino situation.

Models keep shear high in the Caribbean and Gulf and so until that shifts, may as well forget the Atlantic, though there is always the risk that another upper low/front becomes tropical over a few days. As for the EPAC the models do suggest at last the jet streak weakens and shifts position which should allow a more favorable set-up for anything there. The models in turn are becoming increasingly likely to develop a TC around the 19-21st of June. We shall see, as the orignal post quote stated, its only a matter of time.

Also one final fact for everyone. Since the start of modern tracking of the EPAC in 1970 the latest date for a tropical storm to form in the EPAC is the 19th of June. We already are very likely to get into the top 3 slowest starts but something to keep an eye on is the record. Models are suggesting it could be very close run in. Somerset squall, at this moment there are only 4 seasons I believe that have had a slower start out of the last 39, so it is becoming quite noteable.

Finally it should be noted that in the EPAC the latest start was in 1994...that season saw 20 tropical storms, hurricanes and 3 category 5's, so despite the sluggish start that season went on to become very rampant indeed.

Anyway that would be my best guess, though I'm sure there are even more complex reasons for the sluggish global start (one of the slowest globally in the christmas pudding!)

Edited June 13, 2009 by kold weather

[Cookie]

what a great post mate, a great read.

since the mid 70's wow!

very glad to see you making a post. you have a great knowledge and I love reading you're posts

[Somerset Squall]

Your input is greatly appreciated Kold, it appears things are a little more unusual than I thought, I think there is a pretty good chance of that East Pacific record being broken.

[kold weather]

Yep Cookie, though saying that 2007 was in fact one of the slowest ever years behind 1977 in modern times. I suspect once El Nino really kicks in the two Pacific basins will prevent anything quite that extreme happening this year, though odds are we may still see a slower then normal year globally. We will have to wait and see.

SS, I agree and think the record could well be broken, there is convection out there but its still pretty sheared and until that changes nothing will be allowed to get going out there.

[Somerset Squall]

1997 is a really good example of what El Nino can do to tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific. The West Pacific had no less than 10 cat 5's, which is truly amazing. The East Pacific even had two (which is not that common), one of which was major Hurricane Linda, the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the East Pacific with pressure estimated at 902mb. The Atlantic was very quiet. However, the El Nino will probably not be as strong as back then, and judging on current activity I agree Kold, it may still be a slow year overall.

And what is it with these invests lately. First, 91E. Almost became a tropical depression, then it rapidly deteriorated and dissapeared. Same thing has happened now with 98W in the West Pacific- it almost looked like a tropical depression and in simply a few hours everything was pretty much gone. Everything is just refusing to properly form!

[Cookie]

yup happened time and time again lately they started forming and just fallen to pieces before fully developing.

even when its quite theirs something to talk about.

[Somerset Squall]

yup happened time and time again lately they started forming and just fallen to pieces before fully developing.

even when its quite theirs something to talk about.

Yes, 91E got torn apart by shear at the last moment and 98W ingested a huge amount of dry air which caused convection to vanish. They're not having much luck at the moment.

Agreed with you second statement. The fact that it is so quiet is worth talking about.

[kold weather]

Yep 1997 was very busy, though in terms of ACE there are still seasons that were more active such as 1990 and 1992, which came during an extended El Nino period and warm phase for the Eastern Pacific. Also interestingly 1994 ended up with a high ACE total thanks to a very active middle part of the season and systems like John which was excepitonally long lasting. This was despite the first tropical storm developing on the 19th of June!

Anyway I suspect given the El Nino forming in the PAC and the likelyhood that it'll reach around the moderate level at least at some point, the two Pacific basins should at some point fairly soon light up and become much more active, though for the EPAC it is going to require that shear that is still quite strong to really ease off, though as with anything it is only a matter of time!

As for the Atlantic, given the El Nino plus lower then usual tropical Atlantic temperatures I suspect we may be limited to between 8-10 storms this season, though we shall see!

[Hurricane Debby]

Does anyone know where Hurricane Track have gone ? The website has disappeared....

[Iceberg]

There are finally signs that the ITCZ is slowly shifting northwards, increasing SST's and reducing Shear, I think this oftens happens with the start of the British Summer and the shifting of the Azores High northwards.

Shear might well reduce as well and I wouldn't be surprised to see the first named storm of the season in the next 10 days.

[kold weather]

Possibly though I still think the Atlantic pattern is pretty dog rough, its certainly the worst since 1997 I suspect thus I fully expect this season to be the slowest since then, of course like 1992 proved only takes one to get into a gap of lower shear and things can go bang still.

I think this season is going to be a pretty uninteresting one for watching the Atlantic, going to have to look at the Pacific basins I think.

Should be noted that the start to the EPAC hurricane season is the slowest since 1968 now, very slow start indeed!

[Cookie]

whats the record for the Atlantic?

[Cookie]

well it had to come to an end and things are picking up again globally with 3 systems

[Cookie]

no invests anywhere, all basins are quiet

[Somerset Squall]

no invests anywhere, all basins are quiet

Indeed, it's not that often that there aren't any invests anywhere. The Atlantic is usually quiet in June anyway but the East Pacific is still very quiet at the moment. With El Nino kicking in, this should change, however, as we all know with Mother Nature- she will do what she wants. The West Pacific isn't doing too badly at the moment with four named storms, and I would expect things to get more active here in July, and more especially August.

[kold weather]

The EPAC is a little on the quiet side but you only have to look until as recently as 2006 to see an above normal season which had only one named storm till nearly mid July. So still lots of time for things to ramp up in that respect.

I wouldn't much from the Atlantic in the first half of July either, I'm really thinking we could have a slow old start to the Atlantic, maybe not to the extreme of the EPAC in terms of lateness, but certainly in the top 3rd slowest starters.

[Somerset Squall]

Love the comment that has been up for a few days on the Navy/NRL site:

Where, oh where, might the next invest begin?

LOL

[kold weather]

Yep its once again gone quite slow globally, will be very interesting to see just how quiet it will be this summer. The thing that will likely prevent this season being as slow as the very slow 2007 season is the El nino development.

[summer blizzard]

Yep its once again gone quite slow globally, will be very interesting to see just how quiet it will be this summer. The thing that will likely prevent this season being as slow as the very slow 2007 season is the El nino development.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/correlation/mei.data

You mean 2006 don't you??

And were also more Nino like already than that year.

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com...WeatherOut.html

the only thing about at the moment is invest 94 L

Edited July 4, 2009 by tinybill

[Somerset Squall]

And now also 94E in the East Pac.

Nothing much going on with 94L to be honest, I think the Americans tagged it because they got bored- shear is very high and waters increasingly cool on the eastwards heading. Yes, the LLC is well defined, but the convection is far removed to the east. I don't expect any development.