Storm Discussion

[Supacell]

in the uk, the east of wales/west midlands could well go bang by mid afternoon tomorrow.

This would be ideal cos it would then spread East to affect me during the evening

[03jtrickey]

Literally, it's the forecast of the vertical motion of air.

For clouds to form air needs to rise, the lower the figure, the faster (or more vigorous) it rises. These charts show what the expected motion of air is in hPa (or air pressure) So a -15, say, means that a packet of air will move up in the atmosphere by 15hPa, so if you're at 850hPa, in an hour you'd be at 835hPa. It's worth noting that it is cumulative statistic deriving from vorticity and temperature movement.

It is unlikely that storms will form in positive VV conditions. But, beware of seeing this as a key statistic - it is not a complete profile of the potential for storms - local surface heating can change the profile in minutes. In my opinion it should be seen as expected 'average' conditions with, of course, local variation appearing both above and below the average line. It's just part of the puzzle that one likes to see when looking for storms.

Thanks for the explanation. I won't get my hopes up too much for tomorrow then. It doesn't look so good from the latest GFS either.

[azores92]

sorry for the complete randomness, but does anyone else think that the weatheronline site has a lot of issues? they often make spelling errors, the headlines dont agree with one another on the week ahead, and the symbols dont agree with the forecasts, i.e heavy showers for the last 3 days, yet it says plenty of sunshine across the bulk of the uk?

[Nick F]

can I assume the colour of the risk areas as in todays map ireland and scotland is black refers to the lowest level of severity and so on and so forth

That's right, black is non-severe. The forecast mentions no severe threat anticipated.

I am quite harsh with dishing out severe risks, having been to the USA chasing proper severe storms of course! Though the netwether severe scale is somewhat dumbed down aswell, so what would be classed as a SLIGHT risk here would not be deemed a SLIGHT risk by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma! A Slight risk in USA would probably equate to a moderate or high risk here!

[Gordon]

Thanks For the Reply Nick

[VillagePlank]

Regarding tomorrows potential. Are we looking at a rash of thunderstorms breaking out randomly across the country or is there likely to be a defined area of storms breaking out and then moving across the country as an MCS?

I'd say that because of the lack of shear, heavy showers, some with sferics, to break out of a very large area, say, M4 nortwards to Cumbria (ish) with no real organisation. Storms are likely to be based on surface heating rather than anything else, because cloud bottoms probably too high, and surface shear too low, for anything really spectacular. Best bet, in my opinion, is still E Anglia.

[Coast]

Funny how everyone's talking about tomorrow, when there's storms likely today over Ireland and the north. I guess if it's not 'in my back yard' (IMBY) you're not interested

Ha! I do get pleasure from tracking, then seeing excited posts from people in areas hit by Tstorms....

But not as much as having them overhead!!!!!

[VillagePlank]

I'd say that because of the lack of shear, heavy showers, some with sferics, to break out of a very large area, say, M4 nortwards to Cumbria (ish) with no real organisation. Storms are likely to be based on surface heating rather than anything else, because cloud bottoms probably too high, and surface shear too low, for anything really spectacular. Best bet, in my opinion, is still E Anglia.

However, all things being held equal, I'd say for storms to form in the circle and travel along the arrow based on convergence (of wind streams) if there was going to be any organisation ...

[Supacell]

GFS 06z now puts a decent amount of CAPE across N Wales and NW England, much further south than the 00z did. Precipitation charts also show some rainfall likely in my area throughout this evening and tonight. Storm risk charts also showing the yellow 50% risk right over me!

May be wishful thinking but I have a gut feeling that I may get to see something later today, even if i need to drive a little north towards places like N Staffs, Cheshire or N Derbyshire.

Thanks for your reply VP. I'm quite excited about this upcoming couple of days.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Supacell

[Coast]

Coast, then why do people in the SE keep moaning about lack of storms?

'Cos it has been comparatively quiet here so far this year + Harry and Maidstone Weather keep getting us all worked up then they initialise the great SE shield!

[Harry]

Oh that's charming - leave it our mine and MW's door lol

[azores92]

well what do you know, most of the western side of the uk has been written out of the severe weather equation for tomorrow. i also noticed the mention of isolated showers for tomorrow on some forecasts, aswell as the bbc graphics looking none too inspiring.

[maidstone weather]

'Cos it has been comparatively quiet here so far this year + Harry and Maidstone Weather keep getting us all worked up then they initialise the great SE shield!

primarily because the storms stay along the Coast and don't come inland like they used to

MetO warning for Monday is now confined to eastern England primarily

[03jtrickey]

Looks like it's over for us in Gloucestershire + West Midlands now, from the MetOffice update. I don't think I will bother getting excited about storm potential in the future, until I can see the convection taking place. Give it another day and maybe it'll all be in the North Sea..... It has been ages since I have seen a proper thunder storm here. Yes, there have been a few rumbles and lightning strikes so far this year but that's about it.

Edited June 14, 2009 by 03jtrickey

[Harry]

Taking London and Kesurex out of the equation.

Still I wont be taking anything too seriously until midday tomorrow when its developing.

[maidstone weather]

Looks like it's over for us in Gloucestershire + West Midlands now, from the MetOffice update. I don't think I will bother getting excited about storm potential in the future, until I can see the convection taking place. Give it another day and maybe it'll all be in the North Sea..... It has been ages since I have seen a proper thunder storm here. Yes, there have been a few rumbles and lightning strikes so far this year but that's about it.

since when did the MetO get thunderstom forecasting accurate?

Don't give up yet mate, you probably have more chance tomorrow than me

[Jane Louise]

Grrrrrr to the MetOffice

[Tucco]

Some fairly dark clouds quickly built up this morning, sunny as per usual South towards N Yorkshire.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[azores92]

since when did the MetO get thunderstom forecasting accurate?

Don't give up yet mate, you probably have more chance tomorrow than me

i reall dont think its worth giving up hope because the met office have taken down some of their advisories. as far as i can see, cape is supposed to be fairly high tomorrow for central portions of the uk for late afternoon and early evening.

[Stuart]

but it still looking ok for me on monday still

and for today

Heavy showers with hail and thunder are expected this afternoon and evening giving rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm in a 3 hour period.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to 'Traffic Scotland' for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 0824 Sun 14 Jun

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/...t_warnings.html

Edited June 14, 2009 by Stuart

[Mark H]

Dont know about tomorrow but looking good for some of us today.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

Might get my second storm of the year.

[Costa Del Fal]

To me, i think the potential is just as good here as it is over in the East tomorrow.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Blizzards

[frostyjoe]

yea same thing i thought although again no one is mentioning it so dnt knw the chances.

[Harry]

yea same thing i thought although again no one is mentioning it so dnt knw the chances

My guessing is that there will be plenty of downpours/storms around for many tomorrow, but as the storms progress East, merge/become larger and more developed, they will be potentially more severe and troublesome further east! (not SE though apparently, lol)

Really wouldnt rule out anything tomorrow!!

[Paul Sherman]

Well that is Interesting from the Meto and kind of ties in with VP's post about the ever so slight ESE Motion of any storms that do break out.

So they must be expecting initiation over the Welsh Mountains and Mountainous areas of the Penines with an ever so slight ESE Drift to them, or why else would they take out the SW & West Country.

Like others have said I would not trust the Met Office with things like this over 24 hours out, in fact if you are not in the Yellow Box I would be quite pleased at the moment!

Paul S

**Someone tell em to take Essex Out for gods sake!**