Storm Discussion

[Lewis]

Remember everyone, high CAPE and LI mean jack onions! look at yesterday the majority of the U.K was under 400-500 k/j and it was only Ireland and parts of the NW that got something. I said yesterday about the S.E missing out but everyone was adiment i was incorrect, even cookie and Phil U.K are right about you lot in the S.E wanting eveything, and if it dont go your way you get nasty

Rant over

Edited June 14, 2009 by Lewis

[Paul Sherman]

Not the time to get a Regional Cat fight Going Lewis.

I live and work in the South East but said the best chances were further North and North West so not strictly true.

Lets try and keep this thread on Topic and no Mud Slinging or posts Will be deleted

Paul S

[Lewis]

Not the time to get a Regional Cat fight Going Lewis.

I live and work in the South East but said the best chances were further North and North West so not strictly true.

Lets try and keep this thread on Topic and no Mud Slinging or posts Will be deleted

Paul S

Sorry paul, over-powered with a lot of the population on these boards for the S.E just seems that theres only the S.E in th U.K .

I'll keep my mouth shut, i didnt wake up in the best of moods, just to a banging headache.

[Harry]

Remember everyone, high CAPE and LI mean jack onions! look at yesterday the majority of the U.K was under 400-500 k/j and it was only Ireland and parts of the NW that got something. I said yesterday about the S.E missing out but everyone was adiment i was incorrect, even cookie and Phil U.K are right about you lot in the S.E wanting eveything, and if it dont go your way you get nasty

Rant over

The only thing I am, and have been, adamant about is your spelling of adiment being incorrect

I wouldnt bet on anything weatherwise, especially in the UK, as it is so unpredictable!!

Perhaps more people have been complaining in the SE because the SE is one of the most storm starved region in England (if you compare what we would have had on average, with what we have had)

Edited June 14, 2009 by Harry

[Guest]

Good extremely late morning all

A lovely start to the day here, but I shall be watching the skies closely over the course of the afternoon. If we're lucky we might cop a shower later, if we tap into the few hundred CAPE's present later this afternoon

Tomorrow still looks good! I'll be travelling back from Doncaster around 2-3pm, should be fun

[Lewis]

The only thing I am, and have been, adamant about is your spelling of adiment being incorrect

lol do you have a dictionary i could borrow please

[Costa Del Fal]

Ugh, has the title of this spread turned into a spelling and rant thread? No.

Going off topic here , i look forward to see what NMM Model shows this evening. It goes out to Monday 12z so far. This evening will bring the next 6 hours-the crucial part of tomorrow.

[Neilsouth]

I'll keep my mouth shut, i didnt wake up in the best of moods, just to a banging headache.

Sometimes thats a sign of a storm!

Me i just don't like met office forecasters , nor do i like the bbc forecasts with their useless map panning. I live in the south east and yes i tend to get a bit moody when we don't get storms , but thats only because we get let down so often by overhyped warnings. I personally believe also that warnings should be changed , heavy rain should NOT have a weather warning!. Severe should mean severe

Ugh, has the title of this spread turned into a spelling and rant thread? No.

Going off topic here , i look forward to see what NMM Model shows this evening. It goes out to Monday 12z so far. This evening will bring the next 6 hours-the crucial part of tomorrow.

This is for tomorrow

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm-1-41-0.png?14-08

[Lewis]

Sometimes thats a sign of a storm!

Me i just don't like met office forecasters , nor do i like the bbc forecasts with their useless map panning. I live in the south east and yes i tend to get a bit moody when we don't get storms , but thats only because we get let down so often by overhyped warnings. I personally believe also that warnings should be changed , heavy rain should NOT have a weather warning!. Severe should mean severe

Me too i totally agree with you regarding metoffice forecasters, there inital assesment on the situation the other day had the SE in the firing line, then it moved N once again, i grant you the charts are currently showing that, but i think with the amount of man power/data/ and experiene of getting things wrong in the past the metoffice should be able to deliver accurate warnings, after all that was the whole point of there new weather warning system.

Another thing, metoffice always under do it on rainfall totals i was suppose to get 40-50mm when i had 130mm in hull and got flooded, i was on a night out when that happened and i had seen the warnings and thought nothing of it because metoffice deliver the same type of warnings all the time, hence the confusion and also a lot of people take the warnings with a pinch of salt.

Come tomorrow places will be looking at double the rainfall amounts going by the convective potential, one storm the other week delivered me 23mm in 1 hour! Ill say no more.

[PB22]

If you register on Meteoblue, you can create your own maps with the variables you want to see from the NMM model: http://my.meteoblue.com/my/

Its a fantastic tool and really useful too, especially as you can create maps for anywhere in Europe. Its excellent for looking at and working out storm potential, etc.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Paul B

[Guest]

I personally believe also that warnings should be changed , heavy rain should NOT have a weather warning!. Severe should mean severe

Are you serious??

So copious amounts of rain causing flooding and potential loss of life is not deemed severe weather in your book

At least have a think before you post!

I know it is off topic but I feel posts like the one I've quoted are the reasons why threads can degenerate <_<

If you register on Meteoblue, you can create your own maps with the variables you want to see from the NMM model: http://my.meteoblue.com/my/

Its a fantastic tool and really useful too, especially as you can create maps for anywhere in Europe. Its excellent for looking at and working out storm potential, etc.

Thanks for that link. T. Gilbert on UKWW used it in a post recently. I'll have a look at that link

[Supacell]

I personally believe also that warnings should be changed , heavy rain should NOT have a weather warning!. Severe should mean severe

Where i agree with you that the Met Office warnings are very often wrong and i find it frustrating too, i can't agree with heavy rain not warranting a warning. Last Wednesday parts of Sheffield were brought to a standstill by flash flooding from a slow moving storm. Heavy rain can be very damaging to transport networks and peoples livelihoods.

As for tomorrow, i think we won't truly know until tomorrow. Although i do think the eastward shift is a likely scenario. If that is the case i'll be heading east to Lincs/Cambs border areas tomorrow evening.

[Neilsouth]

Are you serious?? <_<

So copious amounts of rain causing flooding and potential loss of life is not deemed severe weather in your book

Can someone quote where i said exactly this , thanks...

[Lewis]

Right lets all take a deep breath and get back on topic, we dont want anyone getting a 24hour ban etc, believe me there not nice, my last ban on these forums should have been until the year 2349 i know who set that "Paul" because thats how long its going to take for Everton to win something. And if you end up been banned for tomorrow you will be kicking youself.

I say we talk about rainfall rates <_<

Edited June 14, 2009 by Lewis

[Geordiesnow]

Some clouds have been bubbling up this morning producing nothing and at the moment its more sunshine than any threat from showers. Hopefully the sea breezes can kick in more today so it can help to create some sort of convergance zone which may help to intensify any showers that do develop.

[Guest]

Can someone quote where i said exactly this , thanks...

You said just heavy rain Neil. However if you regard the consequences of heavy rain, ie flash floods, property damage etc, then you have severe weather. Neil, we know you don't like the Met Office, the problem is when they have a severe weather warning for just heavy rain, it is because there is a risk of disruption (flooding etc). Saying there should not be a severe warning for just heavy rain is plain silly, however much you love thunderstorms.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Shelby770

[dave48]

Storms starting to kick off in Scotland now, a real rash of showers about too. Should really getting going soon.

[Neilsouth]

Shelby770 agree to disagree , leave it as that before we both get told off

As dave said , storms in scotland

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3...;soort=satradar

[Lewis]

Storms starting to kick off in Scotland now, a real rash of showers about too. Should really getting going soon.

Yep kicking off now for sure, some sferics popping up;

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[Guest]

Storms starting to kick off in Scotland now, a real rash of showers about too. Should really getting going soon.

Yep the first sferics of the day up there <_<

[Stuart]

not much happening here at the mo hope there do kick off here <_<

[frostyjoe]

when do you think the storms in ni will start to kick off as it looks a bit like scotland was about 30 mins ago.

[PB22]

Part of the reason for all this aggro and anti-Met Office stance is that people don't take the warning's and advisories that are issued in the right way.

Lets look at Monday's advisory:

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Scotland during Monday. Heavy showers with hail and thunder are expected to develop during the day and will be slow to die out through the evening. These showers have the potential to give local rainfall totals of 20 to 30mm, possibly in excess of 50mm in one or two places.

Issued at: 1103 Sun 14 Jun

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...ings.html?day=2

Note the term "Moderate risk". It doesn't mean its going to happen, but there is a good chance it may happen in the areas coloured on their map.

Now, lets look at what the Met Office website says about Advisories:

These advisories are issued by 1300 daily as routine, though they may be updated at other times if required. They indicate confidence of expected severe or extreme weather. Early warnings and Flash Warnings supersede advisories when confidence levels are 60% or greater.

So they have a 60% or higher confidence of it happening, but there still remains a reasonable percentage (up to 40%) that it won't happen.

Just because an advisory is issued, it doesn't mean its a dead cert to happen. It purely means there is a risk of severe weather happening in those regions for the time in question. These advisories will, I am sure, be issued based on the latest data available to the Met Office. If they take them down, change them or whatever, then it means new data will have come in and they are obliged to update the warnings/advisories in response.

I have said it before, but it seems to fall on deaf ears. The Met Office do not issue or remove warnings/advisories for the sake of it or to spite people. They are a professional organisation doing a professional job. Sure, they make some mistakes - who doesn't? - but can we please take these warnings/advisiories in context and try to understand what they are saying. Basically an advisory or warning doesn't guarantee anything, but merely highlights the risk/potential for severe weather to occur.

Rant over! <_<

[A.J]

I'm keeping my eye on mid/north wales today, I wouldnt rule out an isolated thunderstorm breaking out there and drifting ENE..Conditions are starting to look more favourable with, I would expect some CAPE, 26C+ Lapse and negative L.I values by mid afternoon plus lots of surface heating, IMO, someone in the NW midlands (me for example...lol) might just get lucky <_<

[dogs32]

sferics now over Scotland <_<

Good luck Mr Stu