Storm Discussion

[Terminal Moraine]

Now, lets look at what the Met Office website says about Advisories:

So they have a 60% or higher confidence of it happening, but there still remains a reasonable percentage (up to 40%) that it won't happen.

Just because an advisory is issued, it doesn't mean its a dead cert to happen. It purely means there is a risk of severe weather happening in those regions for the time in question. These advisories will, I am sure, be issued based on the latest data available to the Met Office. If they take them down, change them or whatever, then it means new data will have come in and they are obliged to update the warnings/advisories in response.

I have said it before, but it seems to fall on deaf ears. The Met Office do not issue or remove warnings/advisories for the sake of it or to spite people. They are a professional organisation doing a professional job. Sure, they make some mistakes - who doesn't? - but can we please take these warnings/advisiories in context and try to understand what they are saying. Basically an advisory or warning doesn't guarantee anything, but merely highlights the risk/potential for severe weather to occur.

Rant over! <_<

Well said that man.

An advisory or a warning is just that, not something written on tablets of stone.

Use the advisories/warnings in conjunction with the charts and radar nearer the time rather than hanging on every minor change to the colours on the map

[Stuart]

and i think i hereing thunder <_<

[johnholmes]

Well said that man.

An advisory or a warning is just that, not something written on tablets of stone.

Use the advisories/warnings in conjunction with the charts and radar nearer the time rather than hanging on every minor change to the colours on the map

I'll second that TM and many thanks Paul for another sensible post.

[Phil UK]

Part of the reason for all this aggro and anti-Met Office stance is that people don't take the warning's and advisories that are issued in the right way.

Lets look at Monday's advisory:

Note the term "Moderate risk". It doesn't mean its going to happen, but there is a good chance it may happen in the areas coloured on their map.

Now, lets look at what the Met Office website says about Advisories:

So they have a 60% or higher confidence of it happening, but there still remains a reasonable percentage (up to 40%) that it won't happen.

Just because an advisory is issued, it doesn't mean its a dead cert to happen. It purely means there is a risk of severe weather happening in those regions for the time in question. These advisories will, I am sure, be issued based on the latest data available to the Met Office. If they take them down, change them or whatever, then it means new data will have come in and they are obliged to update the warnings/advisories in response.

I have said it before, but it seems to fall on deaf ears. The Met Office do not issue or remove warnings/advisories for the sake of it or to spite people. They are a professional organisation doing a professional job. Sure, they make some mistakes - who doesn't? - but can we please take these warnings/advisiories in context and try to understand what they are saying. Basically an advisory or warning doesn't guarantee anything, but merely highlights the risk/potential for severe weather to occur.

Rant over! <_<

I think METO is being over cautious, Paul B. But fair play but they have theoretically screwed it up before with Summer and Winter forecasts. As an example... Was 1st/2nd February meant so see such snowstorms where London as a whole generally sees nothing in snow precipitaion?

Phil.

[shrike]

Thunder constant for last half hour on east coast - No lightning as yet.

[VillagePlank]

Re: MetO warnings.

Whilst I sympathise with those frustrated by lack of storms 'predicted' by a weather warning, the MetO warnings are not a forecasting service. I'll say it again the MetO warnings ARE NOT a forecasting service.

They are an exercise in probability. So, for instance, an advanced advisory (yellow), which, might be issued when an analysis of the situation calls for severe weather to occur, given the circumstances 60% of the time. That means 40% of the time the circumstances will not bring severe weather. A warning (red?) means that 80% of the time the conditions suggested will occur, but that still leaves 1/5th of the time where such cicrumstances will not occur.

FURTHERMORE, all advisories and warnings, are for quite a large area, so it is suggesting that the odds, as described above, are relevant for ONE INSTANCE in that large area, which further reduces your chances given that a storm cell might be have say, a diameter of just a few miles - if that.

The MetO are responsible for yours and mine health and safety; I am sure they prioritise their forecasts, and their information to our armed forces (they are a subsidary of the MoD) and to our emergency services. That they might not be able to forecast for your postcode, for your own personal needs, is neither here nor there. I'd rather they told the NHS, first, when they are expecting cell after cell of thunderstorms (increase in life-threatening asthma), or the army when torrential downpours are due.

You should consider the MetO warnings as their overall view and take heed when they issue a red. Nothing more, and nothing less.

Part of the reason for all this aggro and anti-Met Office stance is that people don't take the warning's and advisories that are issued in the right way.

Sorry Paul, just seen your post. Duplication and all that!

[frostyjoe]

shrike when did the thunder start no sign of it here.

[shrike]

shrike when did the thunder start no sign of it here.

bout half hour ago - earlier than expected - Lookin forward to this afternoon

[Harry]

Warning debate and specifics aside, tomorrow should be a fun sky watching day if nothing else.

Even us in the SE, should be not get hit by anything, there should still be some convective photo opportunities <_<

And you never know, we may even get some action too!

A fun 24-36 hours chart/radar watching ahead - we love it!

[Paul R]

I'm keeping my eye on mid/north wales today, I wouldnt rule out an isolated thunderstorm breaking out there and drifting ENE..Conditions are starting to look more favourable with, I would expect some CAPE, 26C+ Lapse and negative L.I values by mid afternoon plus lots of surface heating, IMO, someone in the NW midlands (me for example...lol) might just get lucky <_<

It does indeed look quite promising outside at the moment. Cloud bubbling up to the east and south but I think inland has the better chance. There is a breeze coming in off the Irish sea which I'm thinking could limit storm potential here, but the humidity is definately noticeable.

[Snowyowl9]

I don`t think anybody knows for sure what to expect as when was the last time saw charts like this,I rather the fax myself,different wind directions,prefer mini low to be a touch further south on GFS.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn361.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0a.gif

There will be some photogenic towering cumulus clouds around at least,with heavy showers turning thundery in places.

Thunderstorms in very lucky places.

You`ll know on the day,today shows no risk of even a shower here and it feels too fresh for thunder yet with a light west drift.

Just a few fair weather CU to medium.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Tucco]

A few shrs breaking out in Teesdale now. Light at present.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[Paul Sherman]

Re Supercells Post

Yes I would definately at the moment target Camb / Peterborough / E Mids / Lincs / E Anglia for Isolated Severe tomorrow Evening. In fact if I can get home soon enough will be heading up the A12 Towards Suffolk and then either into Norfolk or West towards Cambs on the A14 - An easy route for me to get to within about an hour.

I am going to get this Uk Lightning if it bloody kills me! <_<

The good thing about the Meto Warning is they are expecting the Thunderstorms to last into Darkness.

Paul S

[Ross B]

Storms have broken out all over the hilly areas of Scotland it seems. I'm indirectly taking a trip up the A82 towards fort William this afternoon so i'll take some pictures <_<

[frostyjoe]

yea im expecting a few storms to form around 3pm or something like dat cant wait!!!

[Lewis]

Just setting up live streaming system for hull tomorrow etc, connected to my main weather station, it'll be like the netweather storm chasing thing they did but the only difference is that its not moving its static. If you see something cover your whole screen its my next door neighbours fat ass.

[Stuart]

my storm unit saying a storm is only 29km away from me <_<

[Supacell]

Re Supercells Post

Yes I would definately at the moment target Camb / Peterborough / E Mids / Lincs / E Anglia for Isolated Severe tomorrow Evening. In fact if I can get home soon enough will be heading up the A12 Towards Suffolk and then either into Norfolk or West towards Cambs on the A14 - An easy route for me to get to within about an hour.

I am going to get this Uk Lightning if it bloody kills me!

The good thing about the Meto Warning is they are expecting the Thunderstorms to last into Darkness.

Paul S

Maybe we will end up on the same storm

My only concern is that i am unable to get out until 5:30pm, although from the looks of current forecasts i'd say the best storms do look to be later on as storms bred over areas such as the Midlands (including Derby) drift very slowly SE - as you say Paul, storms expected to last until after dark. And providing Nottingham isn't seriously congested I can get to the A1 fairly easily (a good north to south route through the high risk areas).

I'm also still keeping an eye out (as Ajpoolshark is) at North Wales for anything that fires up there moving into the North Midlands later on today.

An exciting 36hours ahead. Think i'll be needing the pro plus for work on Tuesday <_<

[sammie]

Big cells going up to the North and East of me, can make out a nice anvil to the south as well. Lovely to see some convection going again.

[frostyjoe]

ugh this is unfair the storms have went to scotland now! edit just heard a clap of thunder yay!!!!!

Edited June 14, 2009 by frostyjoe

[Stuart]

ugh this is unfair the storms have went to scotland now! edit just heard a clap of thunder yay!!!!!

still lot of time to go yet i only had a few clap of thunder so far <_<

[TonyH]

Quite convective here after a warm sunny morning. Dark cloud overhead giving blobby spots. Cooled down from 21c to 19c.

[sammie]

Bugger! Anything that develops is going to completely miss me, winds in the wrong direction *headdesk*

[Intrepid]

Quite a few rumbles of thunder here this afternoon but we seem to be on the edge of all the passing storms. Its dry here but wet less than a mile across town.

[frostyjoe]

suart we are reporting the same type f weather as you , although there is no lightning yet , the meteox has picked up lightning over the last 15mins.