Storm Discussion

[dogs32]

sferics are increasing north west Ireland and Scotland...

and a rogue shower developing down in Cornwall... it might get heavier throughout the day as it moves North and East......wishfull thinking?

I give up!!!

cxxp Uk

Edited June 14, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

Laura Tobin keeps mentioning the SW and SW Wales for heavy rainfall, as if it is the equivalent to the east of England (for tomorrow) but there's no advisory for here?

Meanwhile I am seriously worried about tomorrow for here

Edited June 14, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Harry]

I am not too happy with the MetO warning areas, obviously, but there is still 24 hours between now, and the storms kicking off - with storms forecast to last into the night, it gives greater opportunity for changes in the forecast.

Laura Tobin keeps mentioning the SW and SW Wales for heavy rainfall, as if it is the equivalent to the east of England (for tomorrow) but there's no advisory for here?

Meanwhile I am seriously worried about tomorrow for here

Me too - but we have to be brave

But seriously, there is still a hell of a lot of CAPE on offer across the SW, Wales and Midlands - just because the MetO ATM are thinking EA and northwards, doesnt mean nowhere else will succeed! Dont be surprised if oranges start cropping up further W and radars indicate a heading of SE!! Besides, fewer amounts of convection during the day, could spell higher temps and humidities, so that IF something arrives it has some fuel...theres different ways of interpreting these charts! If its the same this time tomorrow with naff all developing, we can all

Edited June 14, 2009 by Harry

[Neilsouth]

It's clouded over here , how poo i was enjoying the tanning session

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think SW England will have some heavy showers about, but as is often the case the degree of electrification is likely to be lower than further east.

[dogs32]

We are then expecting heavy and thundery showers to develop rather more widely on Monday as pressure falls across Britain and Ireland.

Heavy showers are expected to break out during Monday morning, becoming more widespread by Monday afternoon, bringing the risk of torrential downpours giving the potential for around an inch (25mm) or more of rain to fall in a short period of time in some places.

The showers and storms are expected to last well into Monday night across central and eastern areas of England.

Forecasters Warning

Thunderstorms bringing heavy rain with the risk of gusty winds and hail

some hope from this place

meanwhile...N.Ireland seems to be in for another bashing with the latest radar

Edited June 14, 2009 by dogs32

[TonyH]

Showers popping off hereabouts now. Much cooler at just 17c now and fairly dull.

EDIT: Main shower is slow moving just to my WNW and will pass to my NW, with sunny skies to the SSW thankfully.

Edited June 14, 2009 by Tonyh

[maidstone weather]

I am not too happy with the MetO warning areas, obviously, but there is still 24 hours between now, and the storms kicking off - with storms forecast to last into the night, it gives greater opportunity for changes in the forecast.

Me too - but we have to be brave

But seriously, there is still a hell of a lot of CAPE on offer across the SW, Wales and Midlands - just because the MetO ATM are thinking EA and northwards, doesnt mean nowhere else will succeed! Dont be surprised if oranges start cropping up further W and radars indicate a heading of SE!! Besides, fewer amounts of convection during the day, could spell higher temps and humidities, so that IF something arrives it has some fuel...theres different ways of interpreting these charts! If its the same this time tomorrow with naff all developing, we can all

I wish i had your optimism lol

I have noticed that over the past 30 hours of GFS runs, the "70%" risk of storms has moved from CS England, to the SE and now to E Anglia, indicating a NEwards shift in potential. The centres of the low pressures have also shifted slowly northeastwards too - we need to be looking at the channel if anything develops there and comes this way. I have a dreaded feeling we might be one of the few places that misses out on all storms tomorrow given the latest models

[Thundery wintry showers]

Convection isn't really getting going in the Exeter area although I did see a couple of TCu cells over in the direction of Dartmoor about twenty minutes ago.

[03jtrickey]

We are then expecting heavy and thundery showers to develop rather more widely on Monday as pressure falls across Britain and Ireland.

Heavy showers are expected to break out during Monday morning, becoming more widespread by Monday afternoon, bringing the risk of torrential downpours giving the potential for around an inch (25mm) or more of rain to fall in a short period of time in some places.

The showers and storms are expected to last well into Monday night across central and eastern areas of England.

Forecasters Warning

Thunderstorms bringing heavy rain with the risk of gusty winds and hail

some hope from this place

meanwhile...N.Ireland seems to be in for another bashing with the latest radar

Where's that info from?

[dogs32]

Convection isn't really getting going in the Exeter area although I did see a couple of TCu cells over in the direction of Dartmoor about twenty minutes ago.

on Sat24 the cell in Cornwall is growing nicely on the loop....

Tomorrow at present for here we have 1225 j/kg CAPE

-6 LIFT

[Lewis]

I am not too happy with the MetO warning areas, obviously, but there is still 24 hours between now, and the storms kicking off - with storms forecast to last into the night, it gives greater opportunity for changes in the forecast.

Right folks, live streaming is setup and will be accessible 24/7. Im not spamming, nor do i want to make any money from my website and on top of this its just my own weather station site (Please dont ban me).

I tested out the light input etc and worked on the frame rates so it should be perfect to watch tomorrows storms (if any) during the night. Enjoy:)

http://www.weatherinhull.com

Edited June 14, 2009 by Lewis

[shrike]

Took video of storm that passed over about 7 last night. It had major rotation tho hard to pick up on video

http://tinypic.com/player.php?v=2eztfsj&s=5

[TonyH]

Right folks, live streaming is setup and will be accessible 24/7. Im not spamming, nor do i want to make any money from my website and on top of this its just my own weather station site (Please dont ban me).

I tested out the light input etc and worked on the frame rates so it should be perfect to watch tomorrows storms (if any) during the night. Enjoy:)

http://www.weatherinhull.com

Good stuff, many thanks!

[StormChaseUK]

thanks for setting up the live cam, always good to have live feeds. may I ask what cam stream software/website you used ?

[dogs32]

Right folks, live streaming is setup and will be accessible 24/7. Im not spamming, nor do i want to make any money from my website and on top of this its just my own weather station site (Please dont ban me).

I tested out the light input etc and worked on the frame rates so it should be perfect to watch tomorrows storms (if any) during the night. Enjoy:)

http://www.weatherinhull.com

nice stream...thx...hopefully we see some nice storms later

[frostyjoe]

yes a major black storm cloud went over us but went to the right so sadly missed out on it, but it is clouding over again although dnt hear lightnig again.

[TonyH]

Nice pokey Cb growing to the WSW (back building from the other one?), showing orange/red on NW radar could come here.

[dave48]

The Meto advisories are for 'Heavy rainfall'. So from that I guess that that doesn't mean only the East Midlands and EA will get storms but maybe they'll get the most rainfall from storms during the day AND well into the evening which it already states. This could be due to cells intensifying or merging into much longer spells of thundery downpours.

A thunderstorm doesn't warrant an advisory, but excessive rainfall does so I'm still optimistic about tomorrow for the West Midlands regarding the odd storm or two.

Yeah for sure, there will be very heavy showers around most parts tomorrow with a few little thunderstorms thrown in.

The east has the best chance though.

Edited June 14, 2009 by dave48

[tinybill]

i see the met office have issued a weather warning for the big part of the UK for Monday

Risk of disruption

Warning

Valid

UK regions: East of England North West England Strathclyde Yorkshire & Humber London & South East England SW Scotland, Lothian & Borders East Midlands North East EnglandHeavy RainMon 15 JunThere is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Scotland during Monday. Heavy showers with hail and thunder are expected to develop during the day and will be slow to die out through the evening. These showers have the potential to give local rainfall totals of 20 to 30mm, possibly in excess of 50mm in one or two places.

Issued at: 1103 Sun 14 Jun

Edited June 14, 2009 by tinybill

[Geordiesnow]

Of course Tyne and Wear is in the clearer sunnier spot on the cloud images, noticed some dark clouds building in the West, so maybe thats where the convergance zone is between the sea breezes and the westerly wind. I can see the anvils/shower clouds from the showers in Northumberland at the moment to my north, not sure if they are electrified as of yet but one to keep an eye on thats for sure although i am certain they won't head this way. Can't see the clouds to my South from the couple of showers in Durham but i havant got a good view looking South.

I'm still hoping of a heavy shower at least this evening but i do suspect i will get away with another dry day.

[Lewis]

thanks for setting up the live cam, always good to have live feeds. may I ask what cam stream software/website you used ?

Not a problem Yeah its straight forward really, i stream live sports and football in HD so i have a lot of experience with streams. You need a program called Flash Media Encoder i use the older version (2.5) the newest is (3.0) has more options but its not as stable. You need a capture device (a webcam) and then you need somewhere to stream too, i use a private RTMP which i dont mind giving you access too, it can hold over 3,000 viewers at anyone time when i stream football and i stream at rates of 700kbps its more or less HD quality on the web .

But if your looking for something simple and easy, you can use ustream (http://www.ustream.tv) they provide the hosting and also allow you to add cool things to the stream like embed comments and twitter etc. With ustream you can use FME to upload and they have there own broadcaster which picks up the FME stream and broadcasts it, or you can use there standard browser broadcaster which is an activex plugin that displays your audio and video device and streams it.

If you have any problems setting it up or need some help, PM me and ill give you my phone number, or you could add me to msn; admin@weatherinhull.com

Lewis

[Guest]

Looks like a few showers have formed over Wales Good signs for later on this afternoon...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Of course Tyne and Wear is in the clearer sunnier spot on the cloud images, noticed some dark clouds building in the West, so maybe thats where the convergance zone is between the sea breezes and the westerly wind. I can see the anvils/shower clouds from the showers in Northumberland at the moment to my north, not sure if they are electrified as of yet but one to keep an eye on thats for sure although i am certain they won't head this way. Can't see the clouds to my South from the couple of showers in Durham but i havant got a good view looking South.

I'm still hoping of a heavy shower at least this evening but i do suspect i will get away with another dry day.

Yep, a very close inspection of the radar suggests that showers are fizzling as they get towards the east coast- though the cloud movement is from west to east and a few showers are getting across to the coast further north. You might just see the odd shower or two this evening but it is unlikely we will see a repeat of last evening when a thunderstorm appeared over South Shields.

Tomorrow I expect a narrow strip within about 5-10 miles of the east coast to stay dry, there will probably be sea fog on the coastal fringe though not far enough inland to affect Pelaw.

[TonyH]

Heavy shower very slow moving still but a few miles just to NW and growing outwards towards here. Outflow breeze from the north whereas an hour ago it was WSW.