Storm Discussion

[peterf]

Of course Tyne and Wear is in the clearer sunnier spot on the cloud images, noticed some dark clouds building in the West, so maybe thats where the convergance zone is between the sea breezes and the westerly wind. I can see the anvils/shower clouds from the showers in Northumberland at the moment to my north, not sure if they are electrified as of yet but one to keep an eye on thats for sure although i am certain they won't head this way. Can't see the clouds to my South from the couple of showers in Durham but i havant got a good view looking South.

I'm still hoping of a heavy shower at least this evening but i do suspect i will get away with another dry day.

torrential here for the last 15 mins,and temps plummeted.

[Lewis]

Yep, a very close inspection of the radar suggests that showers are fizzling as they get towards the east coast- though the cloud movement is from west to east and a few showers are getting across to the coast further north. You might just see the odd shower or two this evening but it is unlikely we will see a repeat of last evening when a thunderstorm appeared over South Shields.

Tomorrow I expect a narrow strip within about 5-10 miles of the east coast to stay dry, there will probably be sea fog on the coastal fringe though not far enough inland to affect Pelaw.

Could that be the case tomorrow for my area, i forgot you name?

If theres an Easterly wind coming onshore will it affect the development of some cells/storms? For example it will hit the humber area (goole) and then stall and decay on the leading edge.

lewis

[shrike]

Startin to get goin again to my west

[frostyjoe]

A big blanket of rain jst came out of the heaves and dreched the place along with loud thunder although no lightening

it will prob come again.

[Marcus_surfer]

Slight convection popping up to my Northwest here, towards Carmarthenshire area, some towering clouds, but it stays warm and sunny here on the coast

[TonyH]

Startin to get goin again to my west

Looks nice that one!

[PersianPaladin]

Favoured spots tommorow for the most potent cells look like just south of the Humber and Lincs. I wouldn't rule out a small tornado in any cells that develop at midday while upper-level shear conditions remain conducive; albeit such conducive conditions weaken rapidly in terms of potency by early afternoon. Storms could rumble on into the late evening for many.

Edited June 14, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[Harry]

One thing I am curious about, including of course who will end up getting what, is what watch/warning estofex will give

always exciting when they put a Level 1, even Level 2 over us

Edited June 14, 2009 by Harry

[frostyjoe]

thers another darker cloud coming our way now i think these storms are in lines!

[maidstone weather]

One thing I am curious about, including of course who will end up getting what, is what watch/warning estofex will give

always exciting when they put a Level 1, even Level 2 over us

no higher than Level 1 since there is nothing that severe expected

[dave48]

One thing I am curious about, including of course who will end up getting what, is what watch/warning estofex will give

always exciting when they put a Level 1, even Level 2 over us

I would be very surprised if they give more than a yellow area, I doubt they will level 1 it.

Edited June 14, 2009 by dave48

[Lewis]

no higher than Level 1 since there is nothing that severe expected

I expect a level 2, with 1 at least.

[Harry]

I can't see them giving more than a yellow either, though nevertheless wouldnt be overly surprised with a 1.

[BFS/BHD]

Storms just seem to be flirting with me today . Seen a couple of forks over the Black Mountain and Cave Hill. Looked a nasty cell.

[A.J]

Just got back from the cosford airshow...perfect viewing conditions, got some great photo's...anyways I digress........ some showers (of a convective nature) starting to appear over west/mid Wales, NW extra radar showing a couple hundred Joules of CAPE, so the energy is there and we have some lift, so as I thought, there is the potential for a rogue storm or two to fire in the next couple of hours....worth keeping an eye on

[Lewis]

It seems I have alot to learn about storm development. Tomorrow for the West Midlands max SB CAPE will be well over 1000j/kg and atm a LI of -5, add to this nice dewpoints and surface heating and trough to come from the West. What confuses me is how Meto can say that there will be showers with the risk of thunder and which will slowly die out later in the day.

I'm just lost as why they are not mentioning the likelihood of Thunderstorms for the Midlands. Please somebody educate me in the area of thunderstorm forecasting because looking at the charts I woud have thought the whole of England was in a very favourable environment.

I think its because wales and the west midlands will be the breeding ground early on, as the showers push east during the day and the surface heating in them areas increases, conditions will be more favourable.

[A.J]

It seems I have alot to learn about storm development. Tomorrow for the West Midlands max SB CAPE will be well over 1000j/kg and atm a LI of -5, add to this nice dewpoints and surface heating and trough to come from the West. What confuses me is how Meto can say that there will be showers with the risk of thunder and which will slowly die out later in the day.

I'm just lost as why they are not mentioning the likelihood of Thunderstorms for the Midlands. Please somebody educate me in the area of thunderstorm forecasting because looking at the charts I woud have thought the whole of England was in a very favourable environment.

also, I guess another element to look at is the Convective Inhibition...If there's a strong cap in place, TCu can poduce moderate/heavy showers, but the cap is strong enough to stop updraughts 'exploding'....from what I understand though, is that in this particular scenario, if the updraughts break the cap, then isolated severe storms can build....can Paul S or someone clarify this??

[Harry]

I think its because wales and the west midlands will be the breeding ground early on, as the showers push east during the day and the surface heating in them areas increases, conditions will be more favourable.

Precisely, the GFS Precip charts show one band heavy precip heading across to the E early on, followed by more widespread heavy precip across the W as the day progresses. This is then due to head E again later in the day, which combined with the highest CAPE and LI values due around 6pm, could be real excitement time for many.

[dave48]

It seems I have alot to learn about storm development. Tomorrow for the West Midlands max SB CAPE will be well over 1000j/kg and atm a LI of -5, add to this nice dewpoints and surface heating and trough to come from the West. What confuses me is how Meto can say that there will be showers with the risk of thunder and which will slowly die out later in the day.

I'm just lost as why they are not mentioning the likelihood of Thunderstorms for the Midlands. Please somebody educate me in the area of thunderstorm forecasting because looking at the charts I woud have thought the whole of England was in a very favourable environment.

They have said a risk of thundery showers for most places which is what there is, will probabley be a few scattered 'thunderstorms' but nothing that significant. No suggestion they will be especially organised or long lived.

[PersianPaladin]

I think its because wales and the west midlands will be the breeding ground early on, as the showers push east during the day and the surface heating in them areas increases, conditions will be more favourable.

Yea.

There is an upper level trough slowly moving moving in and destabilising this moist plume from the south-west.

Northern and eastern areas will be favoured for the stronger convection as this is where low-level wind convergence zones are forecast to establish.

Edited June 14, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[Thundery wintry showers]

Could that be the case tomorrow for my area, i forgot you name?

If theres an Easterly wind coming onshore will it affect the development of some cells/storms? For example it will hit the humber area (goole) and then stall and decay on the leading edge.

lewis

Yes it could happen- although I don't think the effect tends to be as pronounced in your area as it does on the Tyne & Wear coast. Nonetheless I reckon if you live within about 5 miles of the east coast you can expect to be disappointed tomorrow.

[Lewis]

Yes it could happen- although I don't think the effect tends to be as pronounced in your area as it does on the Tyne & Wear coast. Nonetheless I reckon if you live within about 5 miles of the east coast you can expect to be disappointed tomorrow.

Thanks for the info/reply mate, i'm about 15-20 miles inland. So fingers crossed.

[PersianPaladin]

Yes it could happen- although I don't think the effect tends to be as pronounced in your area as it does on the Tyne & Wear coast. Nonetheless I reckon if you live within about 5 miles of the east coast you can expect to be disappointed tomorrow.

Hmm...I agree with the 5 mile estimate.

Slack low pressure, gradual advection of an upper trough from the west with no real steep gradients or organised convective activity, weak low-level winds, deep layer shear conditions waning towards the south-west by afternooon all add up to slow-moving cells. I actually think that a lot of these cells will pile up and merge into some thundery rain for parts of south-western County Durham and into Yorkshire with scattered (but more potent) cells in Lincolnshire and the Midlands. The pennines are going to basically cause a lot of the development to stall, and I suspect only a few getting into eastern parts of county Durham. Wind convergence zones are also going to influence where the showers develop and stall in this area - gradually eroding as they meet more inhibited conditions east of Weardale\Teesdale and towards the coast.

Edited June 14, 2009 by PersianPaladin

[Gordon]

I am now going to say the unthinkable

I hope there are no storms in my locality (knowing my luck I'll probably get clobbered by them)

[UkStormChaser]

Im guessing that sweet F A is gona happen in SE tomorrow. Seem like that always happens. Im think though that we might get some action come up from the channel maybe.