Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Storm/convective Discussion


Nick F

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    New thread for today. Please try and keep your posts topical and discuss the storm potential and refrain from just telling us your temps, that its sunny or raining - there is a current conditions thread for that. Otherwise there will be many pages to trawl through for everyone.

    N-W storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 1.4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Today looks good for storms for many of us, even though I am not in the warning area for the Meto advisory, I see this as a good thing. Plus Net-weather have me in there warning area, so all in all bring on the storms.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire

    I am looking forward to this evening now :-) I'm so glad we are now under a MetOffice warning!

    I'm off to work soon, but fortunately I'm going to be outdoors so I will enjoy watching the convection during the day :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Like I said last night to Saint, Gordon and Lewis.

    I was expecting the Met Office to put the Midlands and West Country back onto the List (Cant see why they Changed it anyway) And now they have good luck guys.

    And also I am still expecting the Showers and Storms to be North of the M4 Travelling ENE With the greatest Threat being East Anglia (Northern Parts)

    Am not expecting anything at all in SE Essex so will be chasing in East Anglia this evening after work.

    Paul S

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

    Some nice low and mid level instability already this morning from about 06:30.. to my amateur eye this looks like a good start to the day.

    Alas I am more likely to be in the initiation zone rather than in the thick of things later on, but will be glued to the radar and to this thread to see how the day pans out. Good luck all and if you miss out try not to be too despondant as your time will come!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: snow, blizzards, thunder snow, thunder and lightning, heat waves, tornadoes
  • Location: Chelmsford

    Out of curiousity, can anyone tell me which area of the UK is most prone today. Normally, someone posts a rectangle and then another rectangle inside that one! Cheers.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    post-5986-1245049826_thumb.png

    Evening forecast for London and SE....

    There is moderate to high convective potential (K=30) with thunderstorms likely. Severe thunderstorms a distinct possibility, they will be widely scattered (TT=55) with a small probability of extremely severe (in UK terms)

    The atmosphere is unstable (LI=-4) which makes thunderstorms probable, with a reasonable amount of convective energy about (CAPE=873) Cloud heights are likely to reach around 28km with a reasonably low base of around 950hPa. Under these circumstances heavy precipitation is forecast, as well as rapid storm development (cells will pop up quickly) Almost certainly large hail is out of the question, but hail is a distinct possibility as well as frequent CG lightning.

    There is some directional shear at about 600hPa, and some speed shear at around 400hPa although this doesn’t seem sufficient to support tornadic activity.

    This is all based on surface temperatures, at 18z being at least 15C and maintaining that temperature for the hours after that time until darkness. Once temperatures drop to below 15C the chances of new storm development decreases sharply.

    Area most at risk is Eastern England, with NE E Anglia most prone. Areas south of the North Downs are likely to stay dry with the most southerly point of the risk area being North Kent. More generally there is reasonable risk to the vast majority of England, today.

    Of note is no Estofex, nor Torro warnings, today (yet) :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
    Out of curiosity, can anyone tell me which area of the UK is most prone today. Normally, someone posts a rectangle and then another rectangle inside that one! Cheers.

    Click in the link proved by Nick F in the first post :)

    Like Nick and Paul have indicated, East Anglia looks the place to be today. ESTOFEX and TORRO are having none of it for the UK today, while UKASF have a great swathe of the middle of the country covered:

    2ee366581ab68930af7209488f243bf5.png

    As does the 21st Operational Weather Squadron:

    21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_42.gif

    GFS combined has similar with a slight bias East later in the day:

    gfs_cape_eur18.png

    I think Paul will be spot on the money in his East Anglia chase, its just a bit too far for me after work to join him, otherwise I would guess at the triangle formed by Ipswich, Thetford and Cambridge.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    Morning all, plenty of mid-level instability, just looked out the front window and thick bands of AcCas already with quite pronounced towers, a very promising start to the day, also some sharp looking showers firing up off the Irish Sea (todays trough I presume)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    www.meteoalarm.eu

    Valid from 15.06.2009 14:00 CET Until 16.06.2009 01:59 CET

    Rain Awareness Level: Yellow

    Darlington Durham Hartlepool Middlesbrough Northumberland Redcar + Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Tyne + Wear E Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull N Lincolnshire N Yorkshire NE Lincolnshire S Yorkshire W Yorkshire York Derby Derbyshire Leicester Leicestershire Lincolnshire Northamptonshire Nottingham Nottinghamshire Rutland Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Essex Hertfordshire Luton Norfolk Peterborough Southend-on-Sea Suffolk Thurrock Slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop after midday and continue through the afternoon and into this evening. These showers have the potential to give local rainfall totals of 20 to 30mm in 3 hours or less, possibly in excess of 50mm in one or two places

    Get yer wellies out!

    satrep.2009061500.png

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    ESTOFEX and TORRO are having none of it for the UK today

    Yup - found that quite intriguing, particularly as the boys (and girls) at Estofex quantitavely define their forecasts. Some doubt is certainly creeping in ....

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
    Good morning everyone. I'm really excited about the potential of some decent storm today. And I see Meto have expanded their warnings. Wise move Meto, because should anyone be caught in one of these downpours it's gonna be mad. My cameras charged, all I gotta do now is wait..

    Good luck everyone, may you get your storm. :)

    hope we r not too far west to get a big one! i dont want just a few rumbles of thunder

    i'll be in sullihull later so thats slightly N/E of here i think!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    Like Nick and Paul have indicated, East Anglia looks the place to be today. ESTOFEX and TORRO are having none of it for the UK today
    Yup - found that quite intriguing, particularly as the boys (and girls) at Estofex quantitavely define their forecasts. Some doubt is certainly creeping in ....

    This is why :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Deal Kent ASL 7.701 m / 25.267 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Tornadoes, Snow, and lovely summer Sun
  • Location: Deal Kent ASL 7.701 m / 25.267 feet

    dam i just looked at meto and im not even in orange :) oh i hope i get one storm today just one lol

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crumlin S.E.Wales
  • Location: Crumlin S.E.Wales
    dam i just looked at meto and im not even in orange :) oh i hope i get one storm today just one lol

    That could be a good sign for you lol :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

    after a lovely sunny start to the day.the towers are forming much faster than yesterday.

    exciting day ahead i hope :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull

    Good morning everyone,

    Looks interesting indeed, a slight downrade on CAPE for some areas, and it looks like the severe thunderstorm risk has pushed a little further south, with the east midlands/lincs/wash area/ and east anglia looking to take the brunt.

    further north into yorkshire including W,E,N Yorkshire they will be plenty of thunderstorms but not as severe as the ones further South. Although... the Yorkshire area will see the heaviest of rainfall totals especially between 6-11pm with storms merging together and becoming very slow moving. This worries me because here in Hull the drainage systems in most parts are very poor.

    All in all an exciting day is on the cards for many of us, lets enjoy it, help each other, stay on topic with no bickering if something go's pear shaped, and most importantly stay safe, especially you guys goin chasing later this afternoon/tonight.

    lewis

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Deiniolen, 223m, N. Wales
  • Location: Deiniolen, 223m, N. Wales

    Some very big convection happening here today - Clouds just shooting up in a matter of minutes! Temperature 16C / Humidity 73%

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
    Some very big convection happening here today - Clouds just shooting up in a matter of minutes! Temperature 16C / Humidity 73%

    Same here mate looking very promising indeed, my current conditions in my back garden:);

    Conditions at local time 09:24 on 15 June 2009

    Temperature 16.4 °C

    Dew Point 12.5 °C

    Humidity 83%

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    An excellent start to the day here with blue skies interspersed with a lot of Alt-Cas cloud and I can just make out some cu-nimbs to the far west - the air is surprisingly clear allowing one to see out a long way. 18.1C with a dewpoint of 11.9C and humidity 68%.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    It's been cloudy/hazy since 5.30 this morning... Was that supposed to happen?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey

    Today looks like an exciting day ahead, even a small chance down here in Devon by the looks of it.

    Some great convection already, it certainly has a very sturdy look, to phrase it in a somewhat clumsy way!

    Also, worth nothing that GFS has hasn't changed much at all, nor has the high-res, in some ways they are even better than yesterday, so a great few days for them, this is a set up they really got to grips with, hopefully they will be right about it.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    It's been cloudy/hazy since 5.30 this morning... Was that supposed to happen?

    yep, all part of the pesky cold front on the continent that's been very close-by since Friday evening! :doh:

    Sat pic shows the cloud rapidly receding - give it a couple of hours and the sun should be out :)

    16C / 14C respectively at the mo :D

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...