Storm/convective Discussion

[Nick F]

New thread for today. Please try and keep your posts topical and discuss the storm potential and refrain from just telling us your temps, that its sunny or raining - there is a current conditions thread for that. Otherwise there will be many pages to trawl through for everyone.

N-W storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[SteveB]

Today looks good for storms for many of us, even though I am not in the warning area for the Meto advisory, I see this as a good thing. Plus Net-weather have me in there warning area, so all in all bring on the storms.

[03jtrickey]

I am looking forward to this evening now :-) I'm so glad we are now under a MetOffice warning!

I'm off to work soon, but fortunately I'm going to be outdoors so I will enjoy watching the convection during the day

[dogs32]

real nice convection to my North West here....Tower's and Anviish looking heads

[Paul Sherman]

Like I said last night to Saint, Gordon and Lewis.

I was expecting the Met Office to put the Midlands and West Country back onto the List (Cant see why they Changed it anyway) And now they have good luck guys.

And also I am still expecting the Showers and Storms to be North of the M4 Travelling ENE With the greatest Threat being East Anglia (Northern Parts)

Am not expecting anything at all in SE Essex so will be chasing in East Anglia this evening after work.

Paul S

[Joneseye]

Some nice low and mid level instability already this morning from about 06:30.. to my amateur eye this looks like a good start to the day.

Alas I am more likely to be in the initiation zone rather than in the thick of things later on, but will be glued to the radar and to this thread to see how the day pans out. Good luck all and if you miss out try not to be too despondant as your time will come!

[Essex Boy]

Out of curiousity, can anyone tell me which area of the UK is most prone today. Normally, someone posts a rectangle and then another rectangle inside that one! Cheers.

[VillagePlank]

Evening forecast for London and SE....

There is moderate to high convective potential (K=30) with thunderstorms likely. Severe thunderstorms a distinct possibility, they will be widely scattered (TT=55) with a small probability of extremely severe (in UK terms)

The atmosphere is unstable (LI=-4) which makes thunderstorms probable, with a reasonable amount of convective energy about (CAPE=873) Cloud heights are likely to reach around 28km with a reasonably low base of around 950hPa. Under these circumstances heavy precipitation is forecast, as well as rapid storm development (cells will pop up quickly) Almost certainly large hail is out of the question, but hail is a distinct possibility as well as frequent CG lightning.

There is some directional shear at about 600hPa, and some speed shear at around 400hPa although this doesn’t seem sufficient to support tornadic activity.

This is all based on surface temperatures, at 18z being at least 15C and maintaining that temperature for the hours after that time until darkness. Once temperatures drop to below 15C the chances of new storm development decreases sharply.

Area most at risk is Eastern England, with NE E Anglia most prone. Areas south of the North Downs are likely to stay dry with the most southerly point of the risk area being North Kent. More generally there is reasonable risk to the vast majority of England, today.

Of note is no Estofex, nor Torro warnings, today (yet)

Edited June 15, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Coast]

Out of curiosity, can anyone tell me which area of the UK is most prone today. Normally, someone posts a rectangle and then another rectangle inside that one! Cheers.

Click in the link proved by Nick F in the first post

Like Nick and Paul have indicated, East Anglia looks the place to be today. ESTOFEX and TORRO are having none of it for the UK today, while UKASF have a great swathe of the middle of the country covered:

As does the 21st Operational Weather Squadron:

GFS combined has similar with a slight bias East later in the day:

I think Paul will be spot on the money in his East Anglia chase, its just a bit too far for me after work to join him, otherwise I would guess at the triangle formed by Ipswich, Thetford and Cambridge.

[A.J]

Morning all, plenty of mid-level instability, just looked out the front window and thick bands of AcCas already with quite pronounced towers, a very promising start to the day, also some sharp looking showers firing up off the Irish Sea (todays trough I presume)

[Coast]

www.meteoalarm.eu

Valid from 15.06.2009 14:00 CET Until 16.06.2009 01:59 CET

Rain Awareness Level: Yellow

Darlington Durham Hartlepool Middlesbrough Northumberland Redcar + Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Tyne + Wear E Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull N Lincolnshire N Yorkshire NE Lincolnshire S Yorkshire W Yorkshire York Derby Derbyshire Leicester Leicestershire Lincolnshire Northamptonshire Nottingham Nottinghamshire Rutland Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Essex Hertfordshire Luton Norfolk Peterborough Southend-on-Sea Suffolk Thurrock Slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop after midday and continue through the afternoon and into this evening. These showers have the potential to give local rainfall totals of 20 to 30mm in 3 hours or less, possibly in excess of 50mm in one or two places

Get yer wellies out!

[VillagePlank]

ESTOFEX and TORRO are having none of it for the UK today

Yup - found that quite intriguing, particularly as the boys (and girls) at Estofex quantitavely define their forecasts. Some doubt is certainly creeping in ....

[loopydreamer]

Good morning everyone. I'm really excited about the potential of some decent storm today. And I see Meto have expanded their warnings. Wise move Meto, because should anyone be caught in one of these downpours it's gonna be mad. My cameras charged, all I gotta do now is wait..

Good luck everyone, may you get your storm.

hope we r not too far west to get a big one! i dont want just a few rumbles of thunder

i'll be in sullihull later so thats slightly N/E of here i think!

[maidstone weather]

Like Nick and Paul have indicated, East Anglia looks the place to be today. ESTOFEX and TORRO are having none of it for the UK today

Yup - found that quite intriguing, particularly as the boys (and girls) at Estofex quantitavely define their forecasts. Some doubt is certainly creeping in ....

This is why

[VillagePlank]

This is why

Thanks MW I'd love to have a look at those internal lines ....

And just for you, to keep up your spirits in the seemingly lack of SE storms scenario, here's some Beeb output ...

[wchris_uk]

dam i just looked at meto and im not even in orange oh i hope i get one storm today just one lol

[jo200199]

dam i just looked at meto and im not even in orange oh i hope i get one storm today just one lol

That could be a good sign for you lol

[peterf]

after a lovely sunny start to the day.the towers are forming much faster than yesterday.

exciting day ahead i hope

[Lewis]

Good morning everyone,

Looks interesting indeed, a slight downrade on CAPE for some areas, and it looks like the severe thunderstorm risk has pushed a little further south, with the east midlands/lincs/wash area/ and east anglia looking to take the brunt.

further north into yorkshire including W,E,N Yorkshire they will be plenty of thunderstorms but not as severe as the ones further South. Although... the Yorkshire area will see the heaviest of rainfall totals especially between 6-11pm with storms merging together and becoming very slow moving. This worries me because here in Hull the drainage systems in most parts are very poor.

All in all an exciting day is on the cards for many of us, lets enjoy it, help each other, stay on topic with no bickering if something go's pear shaped, and most importantly stay safe, especially you guys goin chasing later this afternoon/tonight.

lewis

[liamcymro]

Some very big convection happening here today - Clouds just shooting up in a matter of minutes! Temperature 16C / Humidity 73%

[Lewis]

Some very big convection happening here today - Clouds just shooting up in a matter of minutes! Temperature 16C / Humidity 73%

Same here mate looking very promising indeed, my current conditions in my back garden:);

Conditions at local time 09:24 on 15 June 2009

Temperature 16.4 °C

Dew Point 12.5 °C

Humidity 83%

Edited June 15, 2009 by Lewis

[MP-R]

An excellent start to the day here with blue skies interspersed with a lot of Alt-Cas cloud and I can just make out some cu-nimbs to the far west - the air is surprisingly clear allowing one to see out a long way. 18.1C with a dewpoint of 11.9C and humidity 68%.

[Neilsouth]

It's been cloudy/hazy since 5.30 this morning... Was that supposed to happen?

[dave48]

Today looks like an exciting day ahead, even a small chance down here in Devon by the looks of it.

Some great convection already, it certainly has a very sturdy look, to phrase it in a somewhat clumsy way!

Also, worth nothing that GFS has hasn't changed much at all, nor has the high-res, in some ways they are even better than yesterday, so a great few days for them, this is a set up they really got to grips with, hopefully they will be right about it.

[maidstone weather]

It's been cloudy/hazy since 5.30 this morning... Was that supposed to happen?

yep, all part of the pesky cold front on the continent that's been very close-by since Friday evening!

Sat pic shows the cloud rapidly receding - give it a couple of hours and the sun should be out

16C / 14C respectively at the mo

Edited June 15, 2009 by maidstone weather