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Storm/convective Discussion

Nick F

By Nick F
in Storms & Severe Weather

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)
East Anglia is at the most risk of severe weather while places further west are also at risk it is lesser than further east

Yup - but remember this is a rule of thumb guide for a day like today and not a guarentee. There are no guarentees with convective weather. The reason why I like the 700hPa VV on days like today, is because it combines vorticity (wind related 'lift' and temperature related 'lift')

Edited by VillagePlank
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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

I have been in and out of the warning zone all weekend on the meto site. Back in again now, not sure if that is good or bad

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johnny1972 Explorer

johnny1972

Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
Posted
Heard a couple of rumbles here now too ;)

Some big towers around at moment but strange with the mist coming in too off the sea !! Thunder stopped now - must be just a starter for 10 !! :cray:

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Some very impressive Cb towers around Exeter now with rain imminent!

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Gordon Newbie

Gordon

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
Posted (edited)
General. See this as the risk of large clouds being created. Once you get large clouds, you get a chance of thunderstorms. If the air is rising (a negative number in the VV chart) then you have a chance of a big cloud. If the air is rising fast, you have a better chance of a big cloud. In this case it's a race against time to get the big clouds before the sun goes down.

Severe thunderstorms require other factors to come into play, and we can't see them until the forecast skew-t's are in (an hour or so, I'd guess, still to wait)

Now I think I understand

there is a greater chance of thunderstorms generally over East Anglia than there is further west

I think that sums it up

Seem to be learning a lot today

and if I seem to be repeating myself

I apologise about that

Edited by Gordon
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

gfs_kili_eur18.png

TI < 25 no thunderstorm.

TI 25-34 potential of thunderstorms.

TI 35-39 potential of thunderstorms approaching severe.

TI => 40 potential of severe thunderstorm.

Formula used: TI = KI - LI

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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted
Some very impressive Cb towers around Exeter now with rain imminent!

Getting plastered up at the university, very heavy rain here, street lights on!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Oddly, estofex dont even have a warning out.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Things are happening to my west..Some potent looking cells have gone up in the last 45 minutes and are building quickly, drifting ever so slowly ENE..

post-4149-1245060200_thumb.png

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Gordon Newbie

Gordon

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
Posted

Just checked another site for my local forecast

and they have me down as sunny spells 20% chance of rain no chance of thunderstorms

pity it has little chance of been correct

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sunny scunny Aficionado

sunny scunny

Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
Posted

It's quiet here with no darkclouds as yet,but hopefully that will change as we get into the afternoon :cray:

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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted

Rain in Exeter is torrential has been for 10 minutes, the heaviest of the year so far, Big Cb over me, now. The road is a river!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted
argh not again! For the fifth time, click here :cray:;)

LOL

ty

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tcc Contributor

tcc

Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
Posted

Apparently on TWO, a guy who lives in Dawlish is currently having a thunderstorm! Good start to the day :cray: I'm not expecting anything here so please, lots of pics! ;)

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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted
Apparently on TWO, a guy who lives in Dawlish is currently having a thunderstorm! Good start to the day :cray: I'm not expecting anything here so please, lots of pics! ;)

It just moved through here but didn't hear any thunder.

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Gordon Newbie

Gordon

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
Posted

just a quick question

are showers and storms likely to develop in east anglia lincoln etc

or will it be the ones further west that will travel east and potentially be quite bad by evening time?

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted
Posted

Anywhere south and east of London in particular should expect a fairly dry day with just the outside chance of a shower - but thundery potential is virtually nil. Just a suggestion, but it might save some people disappointment from the start. ;)

A different line of 'assault' is required for this part of world - the wait still goes on this summer. But plenty of time to go yet for what is typically usually one of the most thunder prone areas of the country.

Elsewhere though should prepare for some spectacular weather!! - 'be prepared' :cray:

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conor123 Community Regular

conor123

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
Posted

Theres not even that much of a shower to the South West but its just gave 2 loud rumbles of thunder.

Rather breezy now with the odd spot of rain.

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Didn't notice any thunder, but there's been a phenomenal rainstorm over East Exeter (just clearing up now- visibility very low, everywhere drenched!)

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