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Missing Sunspots Mystery Solved?


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Posted
  • Location: Brecon Beacons, South Wales
  • Location: Brecon Beacons, South Wales

    I'm happy to eat my words about the lack of spots in the southern hemisphere.

    Nasa believe they've come up with an explanation for the slow start to SC24:

    http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17...m.htm?list72553

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    I'm happy to eat my words about the lack of spots in the southern hemisphere.

    Nasa believe they've come up with an explanation for the slow start to SC24:

    http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17...m.htm?list72553

    game over for the minimum then oh well no dolton on the way typical just when something exciting happens its gone,

    got a feeling where now going to enter higher spot values than even nasa have predicted for cycle24 with the true minimum in cycle 25 being just another over hyped story.

    but still it was intresting whilst it lasted. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17jun_jetstream.htm

    Yup! No Maunder Min for the 'coolers' I'm afraid, we've had 2 years of a poorly performing summer Jet so I suppose the sun can have it's 'off seasons' too!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

    Over on here: http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index...629&page=26 Dr. S is far from convinced that it tells us much more than we already knew - in his words, "NASA PR-machine exaggeration", pretty much sums it up.

    You've got to love the absolute authority with which they make these announcements though, especially given all the wrong-footed predictions/forecasts over the last few years. Hathaway has moved the goal posts so often, I reckon he must have mounted them on wheels by now, would explain the ease with which he keeps pushing them forward.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

    I've had no idea there is a jet stream in the sun too! Interesting finding and they are hoping to aid the prediction of future cycles. We'll see...

    I see GW has rushed to post the bad news for coldies. Just like in the Artic ice thread! <_<

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL

    Article here

    The problem of predicting the start of solar cycles with a good degree of accuracy seems within grasp. The trigger event is linked to a heliosphere jetstream 7000km below the surface, which forms at the solar poles and migrates towards the equator - following the 11 year cycle pattern.

    Whan it gets to 22 degress, sunspots begin forming at the surface and then continue migration on the same track as the jetstream sinks towards the equator.

    Now it strikes me that there are many similarities with our own jetreams, Ferrell, Hadley and Polar cells:

    I would postulate solar rotation to cause some form of thermal and electromagnetic cyclogenesis at the poles within the hot ionised hydrogen at the surface and helium fusion products from within the solar mass. i.e. where centrifugal forces are at a minimum. At the equator, centrifugal forces are at maximum causing an equatorial bulge. Thus, a thermal / electromagnetic imbalance is set up between the equator and poles caused by the attractive gravitational forces, and repulsive electromagnetic and rotational forces.

    22 degrees latitude seems to be the point where some kind of equilibrium between these forces is breached and triggers the formation of sunspots.

    Of course it is most probably hugely more complicated than this.

    ffO.

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
    Article here

    The problem of predicting the start of solar cycles with a good degree of accuracy seems within grasp. The trigger event is linked to a heliosphere jetstream 7000km below the surface, which forms at the solar poles and migrates towards the equator - following the 11 year cycle pattern.

    Whan it gets to 22 degress, sunspots begin forming at the surface and then continue migration on the same track as the jetstream sinks towards the equator.

    Now it strikes me that there are many similarities with our own jetreams, Ferrell, Hadley and Polar cells:

    I would postulate solar rotation to cause some form of thermal and electromagnetic cyclogenesis at the poles within the hot ionised hydrogen at the surface and helium fusion products from within the solar mass. i.e. where centrifugal forces are at a minimum. At the equator, centrifugal forces are at maximum causing an equatorial bulge. Thus, a thermal / electromagnetic imbalance is set up between the equator and poles caused by the attractive gravitational forces, and repulsive electromagnetic and rotational forces.

    22 degrees latitude seems to be the point where some kind of equilibrium between these forces is breached and triggers the formation of sunspots.

    Of course it is most probably hugely more complicated than this.

    ffO.

    Leif Svalgaard's comments are worth reading on WUWT. He basically says that it is just a Nasa pr stunt,and are trying to save face.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    Leif Svalgaard's comments are worth reading on WUWT. He basically says that it is just a Nasa pr stunt,and are trying to save face.

    Time will tell once again

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    • 4 weeks later...
    Guest Shetland Coastie

    Sweeping "clutching at straws" statements a la GW aside, lets look at what this actually says.

    All it says is they think they have discovered the mechanism by which sun spots are created and how it may be tied to a deep lying jetstream within the sun. Fine. Important discovery. But that is all it shows. It does not, as some are desperately trying to suggest, mean that this discovery is curtains for any sort of deep minima al la Dalton/Maunder etc. It only proposes to show the mechanism by which sunspot minima occur (i.e.due to a slowing of this jetstream). To quote from the article:

    "It shows how flows inside the sun are tied to the creation of sunspots and how jet streams can affect the timing of the solar cycle."

    And this means no possibility of a Maunder-type minimum in the near future why? Thats not what it says.

    Also:

    "We still don't understand exactly how jet streams trigger sunspot production," says Pesnell. "Nor do we fully understand how the jet streams themselves are generated."

    Aah, so NASA's finest don't yet fully understand this phenomena and yet certain people on here imply that they have such a deep and immediate understanding that they can emphatically say a Maunder-style minimum isn't going to happen!! I detect a certain amount of desperation.

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