Met Office North Atlantic Tropical Storms Forecast

[Cookie]

they are going for 6 tropical storms

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropic...thatlantic.html

[kold weather]

Going for nearly an exceptionally slow season. I think thats probably overdoing it somewhat, that would rank as one of the slowest seasons in the christmas pudding (since 1950)

To be honest I'll be shocked frankly if we get a season that low, I believe thats very much a bit of overkill. Anything between 8-11 seems the best range right now IMO. Conditions are present for a much slower season then we have seen since the busier period and we may be having to watch the EPAC instead for the main activity. Of course thats not to say that one big hurricane can't slip through the net.....

[Cookie]

is thier a real danger with it being played down the severity and number of systems this year and of course the slow start that people might not prepare as well?

like you say a big one can still sneak through. also why do you think the met office is going for a very slow season?

[Somerset Squall]

is thier a real danger with it being played down the severity and number of systems this year and of course the slow start that people might not prepare as well?

like you say a big one can still sneak through. also why do you think the met office is going for a very slow season?

Well, the switch to El Nino may be to blame, though it's only expected to be a weak El Nino so I agree with KW that it would be very surprising to get a season that slow.

It would be good to get an active East Pac season. The last few (2007 in particular) have been very slow.

[johnholmes]

don't often dip my toes in this section although I do read much of the various ouputs.

Interesting comparing the prediction of UK Met, see post above, with that from NOAA who have a 70% risk of 9-14 Tropical storms of which 4-7 would become Hurricanes and 1-3 turn out major Hurricanes.

If you read the Met O site they have a new, well new to me, index, called ACE, link below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropic...thatlantic.html

[Cookie]

ACE nearing 50 year low

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[Cookie]

Back on the ACE again and you can see how low the northern hemisphere is for May June and July

[kold weather]

Due to no development in June and July plus a developing El nino in place and higher stablity then normal, I think the UKMO forecast of 6 storms looking very good now, could yet see a burst of development but there is a fair chance this may be our slowest season in 12 years and maybe our slowest in the recent warm phase of the Atlantic.

Of course amazingly enough both the EPAC and the WPAC are both running below average as well now as the ACE chart Cookie shows very nicely, with El Nino developing I think we will end up having a busier year then 1977 but globally this could be an exceptionally slow year possibly if things don't develop soon...

[Cookie]

its very early to say yet but how do you think 2010 will be more active in the atlantic?

[Katherine]

I'm gonna stick my neck out here and rather rashly predict precisely ZERO PER CENT Atlantic tropical cyclone development at all this year.

Even the tumbleweed is getting kinda samey....

[Cookie]

dont slag my tumblweed off.

I dont think that has ever happend, some reports say thier was only 1 system in 1914 but records aint reliable

we aint into the peak yet things are still warming up

[Katherine]

dont slag my tumblweed off.

Please don't take that personally - it was all tumbleweed. And because I've now said what I have about my predictions, something will now happen!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

dont slag my tumblweed off.

?

[Somerset Squall]

I wonder how many times (if any) a TC has formed in May but not June and July (like this year)? Pretty interesting stat I think.

[kold weather]

I can go one better SS. In 1992 Subtropical storm 1 formed in April, but the first actually tropical storm that was named that season was Andrew...which came in mid August!

[Cookie]

Please don't take that personally - it was all tumbleweed. And because I've now said what I have about my predictions, something will now happen!

I took the joke very well

?

its a joke have a look at my sig.