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Hurricane Andres


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The next TD of the season in the EPAC has formed from Invest 93E. The depression has formed pretty quickly over the last 12-18hrs with very good banding already evident around the circulation center. Shear is low overheard and SST's are also more then good enough at least for the next 72hrs for strengthening. Whilst the NHC don't offically forecast this to reach hurricane status I think it has good, maybe very good chance of making it before shear slowly start to increase again as it heads towards the cooler waters further west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Andres looks pretty decent at the moment, some really good central convection indicative of a system in low shear conditions. The low shear and warm waters may allow Andres to become a hurricane- but this is largely dependant on track, if Andres gets too close to the coast, significant strengthening will be prohibited. Mexico needs to brace themselves for some torrential rains as Andres is a very moisture laden system which will cause problems even if the LLC doesn't move onshore. Current intensity is at 45kts and as mentioned above, there is scope for further intensification before Andres reaches cooler waters/interacts with land.

    post-1820-1245691116_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    NHC have Andres at 50kts now but sat.imagery shows a nice small ragged eye forming, suggestive to me of borderline hurricane strength rather then 50kts.

    We have recon going into the system tomorrow which should bring up some interesting results, the land will probably slow strengthening rate down in the next 12-18hrs but it is a compact system and so I'm quite happy to be more agressive then the NHC forecasts are, such systems like this can be a fair bit stronger then progged, esp given the very high SST's and good atmosphere.

    Mexico has to be bracing itself probably for a cat-1 but maybe even a category-2, the advice normally is to prepare for a category higher then predicted and I think that would be wise in this situation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed Cookie, official estimates put Andres at 60kts, and I expect it to offically become a hurricane this afternoon. The only thing that may stop Andres doing this is if the storm moves any further northwards, as that will bring Andres onshore. The official forecast has Andres scraping very near to the coast as a minimal hurricane then moving westwards over cooler waters south of Baja California, causing eventual weakening. However, if Andres shifts any further north or east there still is a possibility of a landfall, and even dissipation over land if he doesn't push west quick enough. It will be interesting to see what happens.

    Nice images btw Cookie, shows a warm spot in the central dense overcast which could well be that eye forming.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    its nice having a few systems slightly closer to home, ok still thousands of miles away but at least their not on the other side of the globe, if you get what I mean.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I personally think Andres is a hurricane in all but name, esp given that explosive convection we still have at the moment. Microwave imagery actually shows the eye isn't quite as well organised as the IR/Vis images suggests as the eyewalls aren't very well formed at the moment. Despite that I'll be surprised if recon doesn't find a hurricane today. I would expect to see this eventually top out about 75kts but much depends on land of course!

    Going to be very close to the coast in about 24hrs time, wobble watching is going to be key as to where this system ends up. Could well be a close shave. I think the center will probably just stay offshore but regardless it'll be close enough to the coast to get some effects I'd have thought.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Andres looks like it's weakening. Most of the convection is now lumped south of the LLC. It seems that land interaction is adversely affecting the storm, and it appears Andres is ingesting dry and stable air into it's northern quadrant, accounting for the decreasing convection. Additionally, poleward outflow is quite poor which is stopping further intensification. I don't reckon recon will find a hurricane this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    In just 6 hours the entire structure has rapidly decayed. In the end the poor inner core evident on the Microwave imagery should have been a hint that something wasn't quite right but its all part of the learning!

    Anyway recon heading in there, will probably still find 45-50kts given it will take time to weaken but given the dry air being injested from the land its going to struggle from now on in it seems. Also there may well be the case that there is shear coming in, ahead of when the models were progging but it would explain the rapid decay, as dry air alone probably isn't enough to explain such a rapid weakeneing in terms of the convection.

    So much for 75kts, busted by 15kts, ah well!

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Well, only 10kts now Kold as the structure has improved again and an eye of sorts has emerged- and NHC have upgraded Andres to a 65kt hurricane. Andres is moving very close to the coast of Mexico but is not expected to make landfall. However, Andres will still bring rains of perhaps up to 8 inches in a few areas. Weakening will begin soon as shear increases, air becomes more stable and waters cool south of Baja California.

    post-1820-1245791744_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I don't think its strengthened or got any more organised, its still a shell of what it was about 18hrs ago and I think the fact it still has 65kts present suggests to me that it was at LEAST at 75kts about 18hrs ago, indeed may have even been nearly a cat-2 IMO...

    Much weaker convection is likely a result of the shear already increasing at mid levels, the lower circulation still looks vigarous and is not probably being hit nearly as hard. Also dry air from the nearby land is no doubt not helping this cause.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed Cookie, persistant northeasterly shear and dry, stable air has dissipatd most of the convection associated with Andres, and the NHC have remarked an LLC is now difficult to locate. Game over for Andres.

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