July CET

[North-Easterly Blast]

Time to open a thread for the July CET. Place your guesses and predictions here. The 1961-90 average is 16.1*C, and the 1971-2000 average is 16.5*C. Just three years ago we saw the hottest July and calendar month ever, at 19.7*C. The only other instance of an anywhere near exceptionally hot July was in 1983, at 19.5*C. Last year was near average at 16.2*C; it looked like being cool up to the heatwave in the last week or so, it was 15.0*C up to the 22nd, but the heatwave raised the CET to close to average. Last year's average July followed on from a pretty cool July in 2007 with 15.2 or in actual fact 15.23*C, just fractionally higher than in 1993 (15.20*C).

However, despite the exceptionally hot July of 2006, July has in recent years seen more variability in the weather than many other months, and has seen a CET below average more often than other months in the year, since the mid 90s the Julys of 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2007 all recorded CETs below 16*C. Although on top of this, we have not had a significantly cool July (at least 1*C below the 61-90 mean) since 1988. July 2007 wasn't, 1993 wasn't. Prior to 1988, historically, Julys with CETs below 15*C were by no means unusual, and even sub 14*C Julys have occurred in the past, the last occasion of an exceptionally cool July (sub 14*C) was in 1922.

[Guest]

Time to open a thread for the July CET. Place your guesses and predictions here. The 1961-90 average is 16.1*C, and the 1971-2000 average is 16.5*C. Just three years ago we saw the hottest July and calendar month ever, at 19.7*C. The only other instance of an anywhere near exceptionally hot July was in 1983, at 19.5*C. Last year was near average at 16.2*C; it looked like being cool up to the heatwave in the last week or so, it was 15.0*C up to the 22nd, but the heatwave raised the CET to close to average. Last year's average July followed on from a pretty cool July in 2007 with 15.2 or in actual fact 15.23*C, just fractionally higher than in 1993 (15.20*C).

However, despite the exceptionally hot July of 2006, July has in recent years seen more variability in the weather than many other months, and has seen a CET below average more often than other months in the year, since the mid 90s the Julys of 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2007 all recorded CETs below 16*C. Although on top of this, we have not had a significantly cool July (at least 1*C below the 61-90 mean) since 1988. July 2007 wasn't, 1993 wasn't. Prior to 1988, historically, Julys with CETs below 15*C were by no means unusual, and even sub 14*C Julys have occurred in the past, the last occasion of an exceptionally cool July (sub 14*C) was in 1922.

17.2C

[James M]

17.9°C

[GRHinPorts]

However, despite the exceptionally hot July of 2006, July has in recent years seen more variability in the weather than many other months, and has seen a CET below average more often than other months in the year, since the mid 90s the Julys of 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2007 all recorded CETs below 16*C. Although on top of this, we have not had a significantly cool July (at least 1*C below the 61-90 mean) since 1988. July 2007 wasn't, 1993 wasn't. Prior to 1988, historically, Julys with CETs below 15*C were by no means unusual, and even sub 14*C Julys have occurred in the past, the last occasion of an exceptionally cool July (sub 14*C) was in 1922.

Further to this point over the past 12 years the average for July is only 0.17 above the 71-00 average (making it the 2nd lowest differential of all 12 months) where as the average differential is something like 0.67. This is remarkable when you consider the effect 2006 should have on the sample.

I'm therefore inclined to think we are "overdue" an above average July and I'm therefore going to submit:

17.6

I would have gone higher but I suspect there will be a brief (5 days?)cool spell after we get through the currently forecast heatwave for next week - the effects of which will mostly be on the June CET.

[Weather-history]

17.5C

[Bottesford]

A warm one judging by the feel of things so far. Gonna be brave/opimistic and go for 18.1c.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Global warming is back business as usual. 20C for July 2009

[Typhoon John]

17.4 please

[Thundery wintry showers]

This prediction will be revised nearer the time, but at the moment I am thinking that Glacier Point's suggested pattern of high pressure over Europe and low pressure in the Atlantic may well recur through the month.

Thus I'm going to be even braver than Bottesford and opt for 18.8C.

[SteveB]

17.6c

[TonyH]

Very warm. 18.6c.

[Devon-Nelly]

I too agree with what GP has been saying about July and have had similar thoughts for a while now. I think its going to be a hot July especailly later on, once the El Nino driven pattern kicks in.

I think the first half of the month will be fairly Thundery and eventually turn cooler but still remaning on the warmish side.

But turning much warmer and drier from around mid month onwards to leave a very warm and mostly dry second half, with the small posbility of quite a potent heatwave setting up in the last week or so.

Therefore im going to be brave as well lol, with my punt of 19.3c :lol:

[Polar Gael]

18.3C for me please.

[sunny scunny]

Im going for 18.1C

[Midland Red]

18.2C for me please.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My thoughts are that GP alludes to the pattern similar to what we have now and are in for. Certainly it is mine and late July will be hot,but not that hot. Start of July will be 'relatively' cool and so the warm up will bring an above average July but no exceptionally so.

16.8 C for me

BFTP

[Guest Mike W]

19.1

[stewfox]

Start of July will be 'relatively' cool and so the warm up will bring an above average July but no exceptionally so.

16.8 C for me

BFTP

I thought the start of July going to be 30c ?

Therefore 18c for me

[Optimus Prime]

18.7c for me.

[Scorcher]

18.5C for me please

[Stargazer]

Above average but probably not with the warmth we're currently getting persisting throughout the month - let's say 17.8.

[Snowly does it]

15.9 please

[kold weather]

I'll go for a toned down version of 2006 myself, still a very warm month but it will have more in the way of breakdowns then July 2006 had, which was almost non stop heat.

18.0C

[chionomaniac]

I think the weather will be hot, then average, then warm, then hot this July, so I will go for 19.0ºC.

[Terminal Moraine]

As desperately as I want it to be like July 1954 or 1988 it's not going to happen and I know it.

Therefore I will grit my cold loving teeth and go for 17.6c