Storm/convective Discussion

[Nick F]

New thread to discuss the storm potential over the coming days ....

Today, later on some thundery showers looks to develop from Accas across SW England as we see axis of warm moist plume advect NW out of France and falling heights with approach of upper trough to the SW causes lift.

Tonight/tomorrow, an upper trough moves NE towards Sern England further destabilising the rather humid airmass advecting out of France. This will spread the thundery showers further N and NE across central S England, Midlands, Wales and also SE England through tomorrow - so anywhere south of Nern England could see a thunderstorm developing, inland on Friday where there are breaks in the cloud - surface based storms could develop with increasing moisture at the surface and temps reaching the mid-20s.

However, given upper winds are light and general vertical shear is rather weak, don't expect there to be any proper organisation into an MCS and definately no supercells - so widespread severe weather in unlikely. Though slow-moving nature of storms and high precipitable water values, GFS giving PWAT values of 34 along axis of moisture plume across Sern England, we could see the risk of torrential downpours with flooding, along with hail and frequent lightning. Glastonbury could well catch a storm and Wimbeldon doesn't look immune tomorrow either as storms develop further NE across Sern/SE England duiring the day.

[SteveB]

So it's looking a bit messy, with the main threat being from heavy rain and hail?.

[Coast]

Could do with this little lot moving a little further North tomorrow!

But the SW may be lucky today

Edited June 25, 2009 by Coast

[johnholmes]

alert issued as per banner headline on front page

[philglossop]

Please please let us have a storm today. Even at 9am the heat and humidity here is getting too much even for me!

[Coast]

Please please let us have a storm today. Even at 9am the heat and humidity here is getting too much even for me!

Possible in your area today, but I reckon tomorrow is even more likely

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for that Nick.

Noticed the Storm potential now extends further South and East for Tomorrow so looking good for areas now East of the IOW - W London line as well. As Nick says main threats would be Cg Lightning and some potential for hail but little chance for Funnels and Tornadoes for Tomorrow.

A Camera Handy day for Gusts Fronts and Shelf clouds at least

Paul S

[SteveB]

It's funny, but today feels less likely to have storms than any other day this week.

As I have been sat in work, every body who has come in after me has commented on how chilly it is this morning, non of this muggy humid feeling we have had these past few day's.

[fromey]

morning everyone.

it certainly doesnt feel stormy this morning, it feels a lot cooler , temps here are 13.3 with a very strong cool breeze!

i hope i get some storms i seem to be in the firing line, i missed out last time, they devloped here but moved on.

anybody have an idea as to when they will get going

cheers

[philglossop]

Possible in your area today, but I reckon tomorrow is even more likely

I hope so, as I'm off for 3 days from 11pm tonight! I can go storm chasing!!!

[fromey]

it bloody raining here

[maidstone weather]

in direct contrast to those in the SW at the moment, it feels a lot more humid here than recent days. The last two days have felt quite chilly in the evenings thanks to the gusty and chilly easterly wind. The wind is much lighter and is also much warmer than recent days and all-in-all makes it feel very humid this morning.

[SteveB]

it bloody raining here

Looking at the radar, you have some patchy rain heading your way (and mine).

Suns coming out here at last.

Edited June 25, 2009 by SteveB

[dogs32]

first showers starting in Somerset area...

will be interesting in the next few hrs down there as they grow

camera ready for any action that might come this way

[Stuart]

i dont think i see any action up here tell later next week

[willinkent]

Its 21c here in faversham and very humid feel..... very light breeze helping i think...... could get to 25/26c here today id think...... was 18c at 8am here and low was 17.5c....... tomatoes are coming along as are the strawberries and my sweetcorn...... hopefully some nice drenching this weekend in-between warm/hot sunny spells...... Im just hoping next thursday is ok as im off for semifinal s at wimbledon......

[kerensa]

first showers starting in Somerset area...

will be interesting in the next few hrs down there as they grow

camera ready for any action that might come this way

hi all, can confirm we are having a heavy shower here now, temp was 20 now 17, hopefully some bigger showers later!

[Kookylou]

It's funny, but today feels less likely to have storms than any other day this week.

As I have been sat in work, every body who has come in after me has commented on how chilly it is this morning, non of this muggy humid feeling we have had these past few day's.

i agree on that one. i just went outside and am regretting flip flops!

[karyo]

It seems that the showers for tomorrow have been upgraded. It's looking quite for many areas south of Manchester. Then fewer showers for the weekend.

I am very excited as I am flying to Berlin tomorrow for a long weekend and the forecast is for big continental juicy thunderstorms every day!

Karyo

[SteveB]

Sun is trying it's best to come out, but the cloud seems to thick. Only getting glimpses of the sun at the moment.

i agree on that one. i just went outside and am regretting flip flops!

Yes not as good a day as the last few. I don't care if it rains, as long as it is warm, which it is not at the moment.

[Guest]

I'm right on the edge of the activity potential for tomorrow, if Nick's forecast is anything to go by. Any storms that do move NE across the Midlands could give me a late show on Friday

[dogs32]

would love to be in Devon and Somerset tonight..and surround areas

.could be a nice light show in the early hrs

Edited June 25, 2009 by dogs32

[Lynxus]

Woop Woop,

Wasn't expecting to see warnings and news about the potential for storms today in the SW.

while my eyes are on whats happening tomorrow, It would be sweet if some headed this way later.

Very breezy round here at the moment and still cloudy thought it was meant to be hot today.!

Fingers crossed boys and girls.

[Mad Murdoch]

Looking good for the next couple of days.. all eyes on radars and the sky.

Hot and muggy on isle of wight now..

[londonsnow]

very topsy turvy forecasting by the beeb over the last few days. yesterday morning it was mostly the sw only that was in the firing line. now the thundery activity looks like it will be much more widespread, bringing wimbledon into the equation. still some fine tuning to do but a muddy start friday at glasto looks very likely and the centre court roof may get its first outing.