Storm/convective Discussion

[maidstone weather]

not sure if it's been mentioned before but looks like game over for Cornwall & Isles of Scilly :lol:

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-225/

http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showfor...ormforecast.xml

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

I still think the weekend and into next week looks best for the more widespread thunderstorms, and the risk moving more towards SE England (us storm deprived B) ) Peaks at 2,000 cape and LI -5 seem possible as temperatures should reach the magic 30C with any luck.

should be rumblings of thunder of the next few days tho to 'prove' it's building :lol:

[chapmanslade]

The usual 'game over' 'game on' posts completely pointless at this stage. Storms cannot be predicted that accurately even at T-12.

The small showers over the SW certainly pegged the temperatures this morning (14C at 10.00) but shooting up now partly as a result of insolation but also warmer air moving in from the south (21.2C at 13.00).

I remember driving south through France once in drizzle at 14C which turned to hazy sun and 30C in 50km followed by a massive storm later in the day.

[fromey]

The usual 'game over' 'game on' posts completely pointless at this stage. Storms cannot be predicted that accurately even at T-12.

The small showers over the SW certainly pegged the temperatures this morning (14C at 10.00) but shooting up now partly as a result of insolation but also warmer air moving in from the south (21.2C at 13.00).

I remember driving south through France once in drizzle at 14C which turned to hazy sun and 30C in 50km followed by a massive storm later in the day.

hi chapmanslade, here in frome the temps have responded very well now up to 23.0c feeling muggy, still have some high alt cloud so heres hoping for later and friday, missed the last batch of storms :lol:

[Neilsouth]

We MIGHT get some thunderstorms in the south east late or early hours , the sky is full of altocumulus... It looks like sheep across the sky , i haven't seen this type of AC for a long time and we had a good 2hrs of storms with that.

:lol: B)

[Coast]

not sure if it's been mentioned before but looks like game over for Cornwall & Isles of Scilly

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-225/

http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showfor...ormforecast.xml

Nice to see some sites playing catch-up with the Netweather forums today!!! B)

Strange dilemma for me - I always like storms and suspect the next few days may bring something useful to this corner of the World. But I don't want anything for next Friday as I'm to the Goodwood Festival of Speed - what do you think the chances are next Friday, now I've made that statement?!!! :lol:

[Noctilucid]

Strange dilemma for me - I always like storms and suspect the next few days may bring something useful to this corner of the World. But I don't want anything for next Friday as I'm to the Goodwood Festival of Speed - what do you think the chances are next Friday, now I've made that statement?!!! :lol:

Well I'm not going this year so it certainly wont rain. B)

[Lynxus]

Tomasz Schafernaker from BBC weather says that thunderstorms will move across SW regions tonight, particuarly around the Bristol area and into Sern Wales. Then during Friday he says this area of thundery showers or thunderstorms will transfer Nwrds towards the Midlands.

So I may have a chance but it'a a small one and plus the nature of storms is that they are hit and miss so if I do see a storm tomorrow I'll count myself lucky :lol:

Gotta say though, I would have loved to have a chance a seeing a storm at night, would make for some good photo ops.

It does indeed look like likely that any storms tonight will be around the bristol way through to S wales etc.

Im hoping tomorrow will be when i get hit, Looking at the Metoffice warnings , im right in the middle B)

Edited June 25, 2009 by Lynxus

[tornadomanuk]

Damn it, im in that catch 22 situation, I have a day off work today but don't want to rush through the day, but I want it to go fast so that the 'interesting' weather comes quickly!!!! ahh well. Just a waiting game now for the air to destabilise.

[samd1985]

But I don't want anything for next Friday as I'm to the Goodwood Festival of Speed - what do you think the chances are next Friday, now I've made that statement?!!! :lol:

I'm going there too on the friday! yeah hopefully it doesn't rain, but i bought grandstand tickets so can seek shelter if need be B)

Edited June 25, 2009 by samd1985

[fromey]

afternoon, i dont if its my eye sight but it look like something bubbling up in the channel just off off south coast, portland area, can some else take a look on sat24.com just in case i may be wrong!

cheers

[twister2005]

hi all, exciting times ahead, when do you think all the action will get to this area? :lol:

[Lynxus]

hi all, exciting times ahead, when do you think all the action will get to this area? :lol:

Probably tomorrow afternoon.

if the stuff from tonight moves far enuf east we may get someone later. otherwise it will probably be tomorrow afternoon.

[johnholmes]

below is the ascent for SE England at 00z; home grown storms as well as imports from France, even without any 'trigger' effects, such as

falling pressure, upper trough etc

[fromey]

storms starting to kick of over france and the channel islands according to the isle of wight lighting dector :lol:

[dogs32]

lightning kicking off now in the channel :lol:

edit i see someone else already spotted

Edited June 25, 2009 by dogs32

[fromey]

lightning kicking off now in the channel :lol:

edit i see someone else already spotted

sorry mate that was me! looking at sat 24.com it looks like something may be brewing in the channel just off of portland sort of area, i dont know if im right!!

[tornadomanuk]

Blimey those cells just off the coast of France really exploded from virtually nothing in the space of an hour! The sat24 view just showed some convection building but nothing of electrified nature. It kicking off quite nicely now then :lol:

Edited June 25, 2009 by tornadomanuk

[Mad Murdoch]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Wilxy]

Im getting very exited now its warm and humid here but i just have that feeling some downgrade for here may happen on the next run but heres hoping.

[fromey]

Im getting very exited now its warm and humid here but i just have that feeling some downgrade for here may happen on the next run but heres hoping.

looking north from here in your direction it looks as if something may be trying to build to your S/E, could be nothing but you never know!

i dont think a down grade is going to happen?????

[SnowJoke]

Have to say things according to the GFS look prety good for storms in the next week especially if temps can get high enough to distabalise the atmosphere and humid pool of air. Wednesday's CAPE and -LI look insane, well over 2000+ KJ and -6 LI. If that came off we'd have a great chance of seeing some tremendous storms if not supercelluar with that much energy. Hoping the GFS ain't doing its usuak and overcooking stuff again, can't wait to bust the camcorder out and film a big summer storm :lol:

[jo200199]

just started raining here and it's a lot muggier than this a.m.

[Marcus_surfer]

Nice cells in france, some lightning, so looks good at the moment, keep intensifying! Warmer and muggy now, humidty 58% rising

[dogs32]

yes some nasty storms brewing now over North France...very heavy rainfull in some of the showers.....

Ramp it up is what I say :lol:

Edited June 25, 2009 by dogs32