Storm/convective Discussion

[MP-R]

Today has been a really weird day. After a positively cold, fresh and cloudy morning when the tempature was still 15.8C at 11am, the skies cleared this afternoon and the temperature just rocketed and it's been to a high of 26.3C this afternoon with sunshine allowing some low-key convection. A shower passed to the south of Weston a short while ago but otherwise just built clud around at present.

[Wilxy]

Is it looking good for us then well are you in bath i take it.

[Coast]

The altocumulus from earlier , says otherwise B) ( for south east at least )

I'd be delighted to see a good storm, but I just can't feel it in my old bones!!!

How about a bit of camera watching for those likely to be in the firing line: Brest!

Looks about the same conditions as we have here. This one looks more promising, but a bit further away: Paris

[dave48]

Is it looking good for us then well are you in bath i take it.

Assume thats to me, but yeah I am in Bath at the moment, was thinking of heading down to Exeter because it might be a better shout for tonights action but to i'm not sure and Bath is probably better for the next few days action.

[Wilxy]

Assume thats to me, but yeah I am in Bath at the moment, was thinking of heading down to Exeter because it might be a better shout for tonights action but to i'm not sure and Bath is probably better for the next few days action.

I would have thought exeter might be to far west so proberly bath has better risk.

[dave48]

Surprised? Thundery showers or Thunderstorms aren't expected to develop until late this evening and then into the early hours of tomorrow morning. That's where the focus should be as this is when thunderstorms will move through in your location. There may be the odd shower early this evening but tonight is when the interesting stuff will happen.

Sorry, just seen this.

But yeah I am a bit surprised, UKASF went for some isolated heavy and thundery showers for this afternoon and I thought there might be a few around.

Skew T showed trigger temps of about 25-26 which we are quite close to. Still that was always just a bonus, high base storms tonight would be better if they materialise.

Edit: new GFS showing CAPE of over 1000, maybe 1500 for Somerset, Bristol and a little further east. High temps obviously destabalising the atomosphere a lot.

Edited June 25, 2009 by dave48

[Lynxus]

Sorry, just seen this.

But yeah I am a bit surprised, UKASF went for some isolated heavy and thundery showers for this afternoon and I thought there might be a few around.

Skew T showed trigger temps of about 25-26 which we are quite close to. Still that was always just a bonus, high base storms tonight would be better if they materialise.

There is a chance of storms later this evening.

However i dont think anything will kick off in the Uk until at least after 6pm.

[Wilxy]

Latest Gfs charts on netweather seem to be a slight downgrade as it seems bit further east i think

[cobbettp]

Latest Gfs charts on netweather seem to be a slight downgrade as it seems bit further east i think

Great news, im furthur east hahahahaha B)

[fromey]

kicking off in france now av14 strikes per min, looking good, just wish we could have grown some of our own, thought conditions would have been perfect today!!

[Coast]

Latest Gfs charts on netweather seem to be a slight downgrade as it seems bit further east i think

But look at the upgrade in intensity in Central Southern England tomorrow!

Thompson Index 24 to 34 = Weak (low) 35 to 39 = Moderate 40 or above = Strong

Edited June 25, 2009 by Coast

[A Wintry Mix]

Good afternoon all,

Just seen the storm risk for saturday at Gatwick

Ive got a days off roading planned for saturday

then a bbq and to polish it off im kipping in a 2 man tent B)

im beginning to wonder!

[Godot]

We just this minute had an exceptionally heavy burst of rain and THUNDER! The drops were huge and made an absolute racket.

[dave48]

We just this minute had an exceptionally heavy burst of rain and THUNDER! The drops were huge and made an absolute racket.

They are exploding out of nowhere, proper summer storms. I thought they would arrive before the evening.

Some potential for very strong updrafts so keep an eye out for good mammatus.

[Wilxy]

Wow an explosion of clouds to my SE and coming this way i think looking thundery.

[fromey]

We just this minute had an exceptionally heavy burst of rain and THUNDER! The drops were huge and made an absolute racket.

when did this happen, where in the hell did that come from??? NICE THOUGH B)

[viking_smb]

We just this minute had an exceptionally heavy burst of rain and THUNDER! The drops were huge and made an absolute racket.

thunder or rain? lol B)

shower just developed on meto radar within last 15 mins right over you so I think that is the one

[Marcus_surfer]

We just this minute had an exceptionally heavy burst of rain and THUNDER! The drops were huge and made an absolute racket.

Nice B)

[Godot]

when did this happen, where in the hell did that come from??? NICE THOUGH B)

I saw the beginnings of something on the NW radar and thought I'd pop out and scan the horizon, but the second I opened the door down came the rain and a rumble of thunder! It's the first I can remember here for ages. Still very humid and hot out there, so hopefully we're not through yet. I'm off out in a min with the camera.

[fromey]

convection and a tower going up to my east, over westbury/chapmanslade area!!!

[SteveB]

Temp currently is 25.3c, Dewpoint 17.0c, Humidity 60%

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Don't think ive seen that before!

[fromey]

also convection going up to my south in the direction of wincanton, B)

[Lynxus]

Certainly starting to get lively down the south.

Bring it on!!!

I just hope i dont sleep through it all if it does come tonight.

[Stuart]

well weds Caps have been downgread for me B)

but still a long way off

Edited June 25, 2009 by Stuart