Storm/convective Discussion 26th June >>

[johnholmes]

It looks like being a case of so near yet so far as far as I'm concerned. The line of heavy showers is about 40 miles south and appears to be moving slowly north but according to the forecast it will slide away north westward just before reaching the southern Peak Distict.

hi TM

go to NW radar and put in the 850mb wind, then try the 700mb one, then the 500mb; they should give a pretty good indication of just where the trough with its embedded storms is actually moving, along of course with doing a track of the radar echoes over a 2-3 hour period.

Good if not better than any media forecast output will be.

[jo200199]

It's so muggy here, light rain at the moment and looks like something out of the mist out there....dodododo

Just gone very dark again and raining heavier

Edited June 26, 2009 by jo200199

[A.J]

AJ - Iam underneath one of the 'white areas' on the radar currently (ws6) Its a downpoar to say the least.

Quite surprised there is very little to no wind at all as it was breezy before the heavy rain started, definitely raining stair rods!!

Temp now down from 22.9°C to 18.2°C (falling rate 2.24° / hr)

We're just getting that really heavy pulse here in Penkridge......Its still a very warm and sulty 22.3C outside....I opened the lounge window to get some cooler air in the house, and its warmer outside than inside!

[Lynxus]

Starting to brighten up here now.

theres even shadows now sun is really trying to poke through.

[Chloe]

We're just getting that really heavy pulse here in Penkridge......Its still a very warm and sulty 22.3C outside....I opened the lounge window to get some cooler air in the house, and its warmer outside than inside!

Wish that was the case here its boiling inside open the windows to get some air in and it is making it even wamer!

[Lynxus]

Slightly off topic, The metoffice have a air level warning out for monday and tuesday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/index.html

[SteveB]

according to Sat it shouldnt be that long for your area....Us up here maybe teatime

Cheers Dogs, if nothing else it would be nice to see the sun and get some warmth.

[tom_f123]

Just had a very heavy downpour, no thunder though.

[dave48]

Well yesterday didn't amount to much, could see some distant flashes but that was it, probably not a great chance for here today but you never know.

Sun is starting to appear though so hopefully things could improve, that skew t John put up looks good.

[jo200199]

Sorry I know this may b a lil off topic, but I've never seen it b4 lol

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness in one or more regions of England and Wales

Issued at: Friday 26 June 2009 at 11:30

The probability of heatwave conditions in parts of England and Wales between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Tuesday is 60%

Increasingly hot and humid air is expected to spread northwards across England and Wales over the weekend and into next week. Heat-wave conditions are now likely to develop for some central, southern and southeastern areas from Monday onwards. These conditions may spread to other areas later in the week.

Regional breakdown RegionRiskCommentsNorth East England 40%-North West England 40%-Yorkshire & the Humber 40%-East Midlands 60%Western areas away from North Sea coasts at risk from Monday onwards.West Midlands 60%All areas at risk from Monday onwards.East of England 60%Western areas away from North Sea coasts at risk from Monday onwards.South East England 60%Areas away from coasts are most at risk from Monday onwards.London60%All areas at risk from Monday onwards.South West England 60%Eastern areas at risk from Monday onwards.Wales40%-An update will be issued by 0900 on 27/06/09

Sorry its already been posted

Printable view

Guide to Heat-Health Watch

Heatwave threshold valuesLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4 Threshold temperaturesRegionDay max (°C)Night min (°C)North East England 2815North West England 3015Yorkshire & Humber 2915East Midlands 3015West Midlands 3015East of England 3015South East England 3116London3218South West England 3015Wales3015These temperatures could have significant effect on health if reached on at least two consecutive days and the intervening night.

Edited June 26, 2009 by jo200199

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

hope this answers a couple of questions earlier

Slightly OT but your guide to Skew-T diags in the Learning forum is missing some links

Edited June 26, 2009 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[davehsug]

It looks like being a case of so near yet so far as far as I'm concerned. The line of heavy showers is about 40 miles south and appears to be moving slowly north but according to the forecast it will slide away north westward just before reaching the southern Peak Distict.

Hi TM. Much clearer this way now & there does seem to be some quite big convection starting to my North & East towards Leek & the Southern Staffs Moorlands

[johnholmes]

Slightly OT but your guide to Skew-T diags in the Learning forum is missing some links

I'll go take a look, thought I had sorted those missing links last summer

[TEITS]

Have to be honest im not convinced we're going to see much action.

The storm approaching me is definately weakning and I reckon this will just bring a spell of rain. I can't see much happening behind this line of heavy rain and I also expect this to weaken as it travels N.

I always prefer to hear thunder with the approach of a storm rather than listening for it when the black clouds are overhead. I will never forget the time in Norfolk many yrs ago when I could hear thunder and yet I couldn't see a cloud in the sky and when it arrived it was one of the best storms I have ever witnessed.

I hope im wrong but for me its a case of waiting to see what tomorrow brings.

Just after I posted this I have just heard a crack of thunder!

Edited June 26, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[A.J]

same here Jo, never seen a met office heat advisory for the UK!.

correlating the current rainfall radar and 12z NMM model...Looks like the West/east midlands could be under several hours of steady/heavy rainfall with isolated embedded cells firing along the axis...wondering if localised flooding might be an issue for some of the plains (stafford/cannock/telford)?

[UkStormChaser]

Afternoon all. Well nothing happening in this neck of the woods. Heard a few loud bangs this morning at around 5:30ish. Been quiet since then. Lets hope surrey see's some action.

[Kain]

Light rain has started again here.

Strangely everyone is saying how humid it is, yet its quite chilly here.

I wish this haze would go, just to warm it up abit if nothing else.

[Joneseye]

hope this answers a couple of questions earlier

Thanks John - we have the Dew Points, but I fear the sun may have popped out just a little to late to get to the required temeratures without any help from convergence etc.

The London area (Northolt and Heathrow stations reading 22C currently) almost has the required temps.. I wonder if anything will kick off there in the next hour or so...

[Chloe]

Thanks John - we have the Dew Points, but I fear the sun may have popped out just a little to late to get to the required temeratures without any help from convergence etc.

The London area (Northolt and Heathrow stations reading 22C currently) almost has the required temps.. I wonder if anything will kick off there in the next hour or so...

Im near Northolt will keep you posted

[Lynxus]

Sorry I know this may b a lil off topic, but I've never seen it b4 lol

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness in one or more regions of England and Wales

Issued at: Friday 26 June 2009 at 11:30

The probability of heatwave conditions in parts of England and Wales between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Tuesday is 60%

Increasingly hot and humid air is expected to spread northwards across England and Wales over the weekend and into next week. Heat-wave conditions are now likely to develop for some central, southern and southeastern areas from Monday onwards. These conditions may spread to other areas later in the week.

Regional breakdown RegionRiskCommentsNorth East England 40%-North West England 40%-Yorkshire & the Humber 40%-East Midlands 60%Western areas away from North Sea coasts at risk from Monday onwards.West Midlands 60%All areas at risk from Monday onwards.East of England 60%Western areas away from North Sea coasts at risk from Monday onwards.South East England 60%Areas away from coasts are most at risk from Monday onwards.London60%All areas at risk from Monday onwards.South West England 60%Eastern areas at risk from Monday onwards.Wales40%-An update will be issued by 0900 on 27/06/09

Sorry its already been posted

Printable view

Guide to Heat-Health Watch

Heatwave threshold valuesLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4 Threshold temperaturesRegionDay max (°C)Night min (°C)North East England 2815North West England 3015Yorkshire & Humber 2915East Midlands 3015West Midlands 3015East of England 3015South East England 3116London3218South West England 3015Wales3015These temperatures could have significant effect on health if reached on at least two consecutive days and the intervening night.

Its the first this year:

Hot weather across the country next week has prompted the first ‘heat health’ warning of the summer. Although many parts of England and Wales could see highs of 30 °C, a key factor will be the night-time temperatures. Lows in some areas may not fall below 18 °C.

Head of Health Forecasting at the Met Office, Wayne Elliott, said: "We have been working closely with the Department of Health to develop this service, which is aimed at the vulnerable in society, especially the elderly."

The build up of heat and humidity could set off some thunderstorms, but there is an 80% chance of staying dry.

Chief Forecaster at the Met Office, Andy Page, added: "The very warm conditions will last well into next week, with the hottest days of the summer so far and a 60% chance of reaching 32 °C."

The hottest day of the year so far was Thursday with Heathrow Airport recording a high of 28 °C, but that is expected to be beaten over the coming week.

Even though England and Wales will see the highest temperatures, Northern Ireland and Scotland will also have some very warm weather, with continuing chance of thunderstorms in a few places which could lead to high rainfall totals locally.

It basically means that if a temp for a certain area will be higher than a selected value for more than 2 days there could be health worries.

The levels dictate who is most at risk during these times.

[johnholmes]

Slightly OT but your guide to Skew-T diags in the Learning forum is missing some links

have checked and yes there are several which I thought had been correct in 2008.

I need to redo those and will do so but not sure when I'll get a chance to do so but I've put it on my list of 'to- do'

John

[swilliam]

It has gone off here in Cranfield (nr Milton Keynes). Been going darker and darker over the last 1/2 hour. NO torrential rain and the the thunder and lightning is really increasing in frequency and intensity

Stewart

[SnowJoke]

can hear thunder in milton keynes, popped up from nowhere in last 5 mins, getting louder and more frequent as i type.

Oh yeah here we go, no rain but big deep booms after crackling in the sky more or less above MK. Itsa a brewing ontop of me

Edited June 26, 2009 by SnowJoke

[Joneseye]

can hear thunder in milton keynes, popped up from nowhere in last 5 mins, getting louder and more frequent as i type.

looks to be a line of cells firing to the south of the main band now... I did a quick search on MK1, here it is:

[Summer of 76]

Yes can confirm that we have thunder her in Bedford, no rain as of yet as I can still hear someone cutting their grass