Convective Outlook Sat 27th June 09

[Tony Gilbert]

oo.30am Sat

Moderate Risk of General Tstorms NW Ireland, Southern & Central UK regions 12Z-21Z

Slight Risk of Weak Tornado Development Central South UK 12Z-18Z

Synopsis is by far superior compared with recent thundery outlooks with sharp upper break away trough forcing lift and increasing lapse rates at all levels, unlike recent outlooks. Surface convergence rather weak but will on this occasion be directly influenced by sea breeze. Upper shear remains weak but strong mid level PVA is likely within the southern most sector of troughing. In addition to this we are likely to see TRUE potential instability realised along the southern most periphery of convection. Which is also in line the best predicted confluent vector at surface.

At the very least the outlook for Saturday has more potential for significant thundery activity including localised weak tornado development than any day this week so far. Based on current model output if you live in North Dorset or Somerset then a good day to look to the sky's!!

[Phil UK]

Thank you Mr Gilbert. Unlike yesterday where there has been too much cloud cover which has inhibited storm growth. Incidentally, did anyone notice those storms over NE France and Belgium earlier on just fizz out within three or so hours? I'm sure that the ESE could have seen their first real imported storms of the Summer tonight.

(Maidstone Weather, Coast, Harry... Look, it happens but given the humidity and surface temperature, why it isn't happening is beyond my comprehension!)

Any thoughts as to Monday/Tuesday next week perchance mate?

Phil.