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Storm/convective Discussion


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

Just a question for anyone who might have any thoughts- I'm hearing from some quarters that N. England will be a good place for storms today, and others, including the metoffice warnings, saying that it will just be west of the Pennines? Am I to assume that this is due to the overcast skies we've got over here this morning, stopping anything kicking off? I'm in Leeds by the way. Thanks in advance and to those that do get the storms today, keep the pics and vids coming!

bb

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
A fairly strong cap currently in place??........

Up here, the clouds are breaking up quite nicely, a couple of hours or so earlier than yesterday, allowing some warm sunny intervals.....bodes quite well for later, as I think I'm in quite a prime area today :D

yes............also GFS charts now updating and showing potential further East and the North...if this is to be believed

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Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)

Ive got towers shooting up just south of me.. and according to weather its suppose to be hot/dry sunny.. not the way there shooting up it wont.. getting darker here as well :D

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Just a question for anyone who might have any thoughts- I'm hearing from some quarters that N. England will be a good place for storms today, and others, including the metoffice warnings, saying that it will just be west of the Pennines? Am I to assume that this is due to the overcast skies we've got over here this morning, stopping anything kicking off? I'm in Leeds by the way. Thanks in advance and to those that do get the storms today, keep the pics and vids coming!

bb

Yes we need the cloud to clear and to get some heating going. We have the highest CAPE values in the UK today, peaking at 800-900 and a LI of -3. Without any daytime heating though it could be wasted.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
yes............also GFS charts now updating and showing potential further East and the North...if this is to be believed

yeah, I've had a look at the NMM model, its suggesting some notable areas of wind convergence today, one area stretching SE-NW over birmingham transferring NEwards this afternoon, and another SE-NW area of wind convergence setting up this evening through middle England up to Salops/welsh borders, this ties in the NMM precip model, with the available CAPE and lifted Index in the -1 to -3C bracket, this suggests we might get two shots at getting thunderstorms today, firstly around the mid-afternoon firing to the north and NE of Birmingham, and then later on towards the night (7-9pm) another chance in areas more to the south of Brum.....Well, at least thats how I'm interpreting it, probably totally wrong! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire

A few changes so far on the 6Z run. A bit of a downgrade for tomorrow. Also, the activity is further north and west on Wednesday.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs....84/ukcapeli.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

A bit too much high cirrus, cirrostratus and altostratus today to let any convection start off. It's warm and humid but the temperature is now falling from an already-reached high of 23.2C and it is now 22.1C.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
A few changes so far on the 6Z run. A bit of a downgrade for tomorrow. Also, the activity is further north and west on Wednesday.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs....84/ukcapeli.png

It will change, the cape seems tochange alot on the GFS even very close to the events.

It does look like here has a couple of goes at a chance of Thunderstorms today. Nice. :D

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
A few changes so far on the 6Z run. A bit of a downgrade for tomorrow. Also, the activity is further north and west on Wednesday.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs....84/ukcapeli.png

thats alright James.....expected for things to chop and change......later yet again it will.............Thursday still looking like a showdown...But like I say they keep chopping and changing

Like Mike said the cirrus here as killed the convection

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

Ah ha, so will it be 3rd time lucky for us west midlanders....that remains to be seen however, in Nicks forecast

A stagnant warm moist airmass persists across much of central UK today

You aint kidding it's stangnant! It's absolutly foul here, it's kinda hard to breathe, hard to explain really.

Anyway heres hoping for today!

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Low cloud has broken up much earlier to,the wind direction has changed to the SE,Cumulus towers have started in the last hour,not all that high yet not like dogs nice pics,those clouds seem to be coming more from the south.

Hazy too making it look more thundery at 21c

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Not a sniff of a thunderstorm or even a shower here yesterday. The low cloud persisted all day inhibiting any local convection and any storms or showers which did develop were well to the north west or south west.

There's another Met' Office weather warning out for this area so I remain tentatively hopeful, it will depend a lot on how quickly, if at all, this sheet of stratus disperses. At the moment there's no sign of it breaking despite the early morning fog clearing about 3 hours earlier than yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Low Moor - 186m (610ft) asl
  • Location: Low Moor - 186m (610ft) asl

It's foggy here, in Bradford, and I'm torn as to whether I want any storms here today as I like them but my other half doesn't :wub:

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London

How good was the storms yesterday starting around 5ish it was pitch black to the north of me, frequent CG lightning and deep rolling thunder and went on untill 9.oo lots of lightning a few GC thunder, torential rain was in my glory although we had to go to a friends house for a barbi which was cancelled, but still went I managed to get my hubbi to take a detour through Ruislip Ickhnam( spelt wrong) way and it was amazing tryed to get some pics but my hubbi hid the camera as he thought I was mad wanting to take pictures of the lighning I think he was scared, hopefully might get some action again today.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
these things are exploding then dying.then repeating the proccess all over again

We had exactly the same thing here yesterday dogs!! Excluding the far E of Kent, nothing really organised properly until mid to late afternoon! If yesterday here was anything to go by, it's a good sign :wub:

As for here, well there was a tower going up about 15 mins ago and a few dark towers trying to go up also now!! Already v v warm and humid - not expecting anything to come of these towers as they look far less robust than yesterdays - maybe a tropic like downpour like yesterday without the electrics...very warm, completely still without the hint of a breeze, just pure stagnant humdity...lovely :)

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Today's short clip of Convection timelapse before the cirrus killed it all

I had the shutter speed to high on this one ...so its a bit dark

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Wondering what the chances are for my area. Can't remember the last time we had a proper storm. Met Office are showing a flash warning at 80% confidence but I am taking that with a big pinch of salt. Dull and overcast at the moment, with not much heating.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Wow! Brilliant time lapse video!

Nothing happening here today but MY GOD its humid. It's so so sticky!

And that is why next week is going to be hell. Imagine this but several degrees warmer, it will not be pleasant in the slightest!

And yes dogs32, fantastic video!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
And that is why next week is going to be hell. Imagine this but several degrees warmer, it will not be pleasant in the slightest!

And yes dogs32, fantastic video!

Did you get yesterdays storm nick?

Edited by Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Morning Dogs32

i like the time lapse , well done

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
It does'nt feel as hot here today as yesterday, cloud building to the south now.

don't expect storms here until Friday mate - just hot and sticky! :wub:

Edited by maidstone weather
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