Storm/convective Discussion

[Nick F]

New thread for today ...

Netweather storm forecast: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[maidstone weather]

what's with all these storms popping up over the SW & S Wales? Why doesn't that ever happen out of the blue here in Kent at night

[richep]

the storms that we have had over the last few days are the first descent storms we've had in years

[Neilsouth]

what's with all these storms popping up over the SW & S Wales? Why doesn't that ever happen out of the blue here in maidstone at night

Fixed :lol:

Chin up though , im sure we will see our imports soon enough

[Coast]

TORRO say:

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/016

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 11:35GMT on Sunday 28th June 2009

Valid from/until: 1135-2000GMT on Sunday 28th June 2009 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

NW England NE Wales Midlands E Anglia SE England

THREATS

Isolated funnels/tornadoes; hail; CG lightning; torrential rain; gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

As Saturday, scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop in places this afternoon, although short-wave ridging behind departing upper vort-max may limit overall coverage. Once again, convergence zones will be the most favoured area, and mesoscale models depict strongest convergence zone from NW England down towards SE England this afternoon, although other smaller zones (e.g. sea breezes over E Anglia/E England) are also likely. This forecast has attempted to highlight the most likely areas for funnels/weak tornado development, although the overall risk today is fairly low. The NW'ern end of the forecast zone may well have the highest chance of thunderstorms, given the proximity to a weak upper trough.

The lack of organisation/shear precludes the issuance of a WATCH.

ESTOFEX have:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 29 Jun 2009 06:00 to Tue 30 Jun 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 28 Jun 2009 20:00

Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 1 was issued for E Germany, the Eastern Alps, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Pannonian Plain, W Balkans, the Dinaric Alps, mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Romania, the SW Ukraine and Moldova for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for N Poland, Kaliningrad, Lithuania, parts of belarus, and the Smolensk-Moscow Upland for large hail, severe winds and excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00... the mid- and upper-level flow over the entire continent remains weak. A weak complex mid-level low over the Balkans weakens a bit more. A frontal zone stretches from the Lithuanian/Latvian border eastward.

UKASF go with:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-06-28 23:05:00

Valid: 2009-06-29 00:00:00 - 2009-06-29 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Wales, West Country, S,W+N Midlands, Northwest England, Central Southern Scotland ( parts of Central Southern England, Southwest England and much of Scotland are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

High pressure over Scandinavia continues to affect the weather across the UK. Weak capping is likely to be in place initially, and so initiation of thunderstorms may take until mid/late afternoon in some parts. Mountainous areas are likely to benefit the most with both lifting mechanisms and local convergence zones present. Surface heating will be required significantly in non-mountainous areas for storm initiation. As a result, it seems any storms will be isolated but very slow moving, with the potential for flash flooding from prolonged torrential rain. Any storms that do develop during the day should move in a N/NW direction. Areas currently with the most favoured conditions are thought to be N/NE Wales and into NW England. Most storms will decay during the evening fairly quickly, but may persist a little longer across Northwest England. There is a risk of a thunderstorm across the Northwest Highlands, but the risk at the moment seems too limited for the THUNDERSTORM region to be extended here. There is also a small risk of elevated thunderstorms moving up from northwest France/Brittany area into SW/CS England late in the period, but similarly the risk is currently too low to be included on the map. We will monitor the conditions during Monday and may issue an update if necessary.

The Yankee fly boys have it off over in the Atlantic:

GFS says:

and the South Africans have:

So Wales and the Midlands today?

[maidstone weather]

Fixed :lol:

Chin up though , im sure we will see our imports soon enough

lol :lol:

Coast that TORRO forecast is for yesterday i think?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Coast.

I would go with that prog.

West Midlands probably more so than the East Midlands.

Just been outside, and its somewhat lacking in humidity here, with low cloud also (although hopefully this will burn off soon).

[loopydreamer]

looking for a storm here in worcestershire today! we have only had a few rumbles here in redditch in the last few days!

hope one comes my way! stuck in work from 2-8 tho

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure if anyone will take any notice but before we get the daily spate of ya boo its not happening for me can I suggest EVERYONE BEFORE they post reads the forecast at the top of this thread from Nick F.

It clearly gives the areas at risk so do take note of what that area is?

[Coast]

Coast that TORRO forecast is for yesterday i think?

:lol: Yeah, I never read any of the stuff I post!!!!

[Neilsouth]

I'm not sure if anyone will take any notice but before we get the daily spate of ya boo its not happening for me can I suggest EVERYONE BEFORE they post reads the forecast at the top of this thread from Nick F.

It clearly gives the areas at risk so do take note of what that area is?

Nothing against nick but i would also like to see the forecast from VillagePlank , he's been pretty spot on with storm forecasting lately

[Kookylou]

what's with all these storms popping up over the SW & S Wales? Why doesn't that ever happen out of the blue here in Kent at night

huh?!?! all we've had is some rain and now it's brightening up!!

[maidstone weather]

huh?!?! all we've had is some rain and now it's brightening up!!

there have been ground reports of lightning just north of Cardiff earlier this morning on another forum

[BrickFielder]

Lapse rates don't look that impressive today.

Cape forecasts closely follow dewpoints and again I am not confident that the location of highest dewpoints will be correct.

Not much wind shear around, but weak turning of the winds through the atmosphere over northern areas caught my attention as did the low level winds across Wales.

It is worth noting that the MetOffice output suggests very little in the way of storms, so bear that in mind when you look at the GFS charts.

Forecast SkewT's suggest some impressive instability and fairly light winds so rainfall amounts from any storm that does form could be impressive. Notice the drier air through the mid level suggested on the brimingham skewT.

There is not much of a focus for development today but we might expect the cloudy area over wales to move into england. This could provide a focus if it breaks up or could suppress development if it does not. Taking everything into account my favoured areas today would be north wales and perhaps towards York with the prime risk being localized flooding from heavy rain.

[Rustynailer]

I have the day off work, if I went to work I would leave the risk area. I have never had such a compelling reason to stay put and watch the weather this summer

The sun is breaking through, convection starts here hopefully, its already over 20C :lol:

Russ

[Harry]

Its already 24C here and that was nearly an hour ago!!

Couldnt be less visible convection occurring if it tried lol! Sickies today anyone? :lol:

[Wynn D Woo]

Certainly humid enough 83% and DP is at 17C, but it is very cloudy and so far the showers we have had are rain only.

[viking_smb]

there have been ground reports of lightning just north of Cardiff earlier this morning on another forum

when? how? :lol: , as I have not heard thunder this morning at all and i'm from cardiff

[Thundery wintry showers]

Surprise little storm just woke me up with a short lived but absolutely torrential downpour. Had the window open too.

Since then theres been a few flashes and rumbles.

Im off to bed again.

I slept through it, d'oh!

[fromey]

Certainly humid enough 83% and DP is at 17C, but it is very cloudy and so far the showers we have had are rain only.

not long to wait for blue skys mate, we have bright blue skys here, 23.0c 87% humidity, hopefully somthing will break out later?

next few days though dont look that good, just caught the bbc weather, cloudy and rain not really good!!!

[maidstone weather]

when? how? :lol: , as I have not heard thunder this morning at all and i'm from cardiff

Blackwood around 8.10am

25C here

[viking_smb]

Blackwood around 8.10am

25C here :lol:

oh ok , it's from up the valleys then, well its due to the demographics and geography of area up there

[dogs32]

i see we have a up grade today

I am not complaining

and down grades for most of the week according to the GFS..

compared to what it was

though As usual this will change yet again

edit massive upgrade for today...GFS UPDATED

will the upgrades through out the week continue

[JamieUK]

Current temp here is 25C already, uncomfortably humid here. I see we have a big upgrade today, woohoo, bring it on.

Oh and I was wondering what convective inhibition is and what it should be for storms to fire up, as I now know what CAPE and LI are thanks to you guys lol? cheers

[Guest]

Blackwood around 8.10am

25C here

Yes this link...UKASF also shows lightning detected over S Wales and parts of SW England :lol: