Storm/convective Discussion

[tornadomanuk]

Had some very heavy rain here this morning at about 4:30am - 5am. There were some lightning/thunder, I reckon a flash every 20 minutes or so and only had a total of 4 so not very electrified at all. All eyes to the south later tonight/overnight for some possible imports.

[Snowyowl9]

Thanks John for that looks like those showers have died quite abit,hazy blue skies to the south and quite breezy from the E/SE,it feels more refreshing after those showers.

[SteveB]

Had some very heavy rain here this morning at about 4:30am - 5am. There were some lightning/thunder, I reckon a flash every 20 minutes or so and only had a total of 4 so not very electrified at all. All eyes to the south later tonight/overnight for some possible imports.

Yes it looks like our main event is early tomorrow morning. This morning one, although fairly weak, was unexpected, so can't complain.

[Faye]

Good afternoon Faye and welcome!

Forecasting TStorms is a nightmare and you can only take indications of the possibility from this site and other sources + keep looking on the radar and the skies.

I think a 'definite maybe' for you later but fellow members like dogs32 and Jane Louise in your part of the World, can give you more local info and assistance. I mostly go on hunch ( ) and I suspect you are on the very most Southerly part of any possible convective activity today.

Thanks for the welcome, coast :lol:

I've had a look at the GFS system, think I understand it a bit now.

Will keep an eye out for posts from dogs32 and Jane Louise as I'll think I need all the help I can get!

[A.J]

Well, all quiet on the western front, so I'm off to work....I'm working in the Daventry area this afternoon, so not really expecting anything, but might be a storm or 2 when I get back to Staffs, then it'll be all eyes south for the overnight period to see if anything trundles northwards from that plume

[dogs32]

just hit 28.1

Towers to my South have disintergrated....

But convection still trying far S/W

[Nights King]

Very warm and humid here all ready with hazy blue skys.

Shall be watching radar today to see if we could get our first thunderstorm. just maybe

[we1330]

Very warm and humid here all ready with hazy blue skys.

Shall be watching radar today to see if we could get our first thunderstorm. just maybe :lol:

Is that a certain Mr. Angwin as your avatar image?

[Rustynailer]

The line of cloud to my West has towers, it is heading NNE.

The towers were growing in front of me as I drove West along our coast road. They are making landfall around the Lyme Regis area.

25C here and nicely blustery/breezy

Russ

Correction the clouds are making landfall between Weymouth and Swanage.

Edited June 29, 2009 by Rustynailer

[Tn9]

:lol: Head for the Faraday cage!

There was a lot of cloud over you yesterday by what I could see from the Downs, some of it looked convective but I suspect that we will not see too much potential here until later in the week (earliest).

Got a bit of convection to my west,the clouds are virtually stationary

[Mad Murdoch]

The line of cloud to my West has towers, it is heading NNE.

The towers were growing in front of me as I drove West along our coast road. They are making landfall around the Lyme Regis area.

25C here and nicely blustery/breezy :lol:

Russ

Correction the clouds are making landfall between Weymouth and Swanage.

Hi Russ

Very hazy over here in brading, but the breeze is really nice, heres hoping for some nice imports later and for the rest of the week..

All eyes on radars and sky

[dogs32]

The line of cloud to my West has towers, it is heading NNE.

The towers were growing in front of me as I drove West along our coast road. They are making landfall around the Lyme Regis area.

25C here and nicely blustery/breezy :lol:

Russ

Correction the clouds are making landfall between Weymouth and Swanage.

yes you can see them on Sat...

more convection here but nothing worth taking pics

[Harry]

Got a bit of convection to my west,the clouds are virtually stationary

Yep can see that to my SE - clouds bubbled almost instantaneoulsy!

V hot, surpassed the 30C about 45 mins ago, with still and hour or two more to go! 32C anyone? :lol:

Edited June 29, 2009 by Harry

[Tn9]

Yep can see that to my SE - clouds bubbled almost instantaneoulsy!

V hot, surpassed the 30C about 45 mins ago, with still and hour or two more to go! 32C anyone? :lol:

It wont be far off that Harry,im melting here....edit,sun has just gone in ! :lol:

[Rustynailer]

yes you can see them on Sat...

more convection here but nothing worth taking pics

:lol: they look further away than I at first thought.

As they go inland they are diminishing at the moment. Still early though hopefully, would love to see distant lightning at the very least :lol:

[dogs32]

The best convection of the day so far now kicking off

Edited June 29, 2009 by dogs32

[dogs32]

massive exposion of energy now ...to my South and East...heading N/E

VERY FAST CONVECTION...turkey towers on and off....eatch time seem to be getting bigger

South Cotsworld direction.....rows of towers

Edited June 29, 2009 by dogs32

[johnholmes]

massive!

really some of you do tend to over egg the situation

at most they are just about towering Cu

if it is massive then shortly we should see a Cb type 3 photo soon followed by a type 9 with anvil!

as to places most likely to see them, perhaps some should read the post from Brick this morning

his summation said this

Taking everything into account my favoured areas today would be north wales and perhaps towards York with the prime risk being localized flooding from heavy rain.

that is realism not hype casting-so please don't be upset or hurt if you are not in that area and don't get a storm?

[dogs32]

to be honest John it looks to be heading that direction.....

Though I dont know whats going to happen in the next 30 mins or so...But the convection seems to be going very fast here

to the South

Edited June 29, 2009 by dogs32

[johnholmes]

from UK Met and their aviation forecasts for most airfields in the UK

the following have at least a prob of thunder in the forecast

Bristol Cardiff

Luton

Birmingham

Blackpool

Coventry

East Midlands

Hawarden(Chester)

Leeds

Liverpool

Manchester

all I'm trying to do is NOT pour cold water on any of your hopes but to try and inject a touch of realism into the posts.

be enthusiastic, nothing wrong with that but also do try to be objective

read what the more experienced posters have put, check your area for whether it fits into the area they are predicting anything for.

Even then remember that it may still not happen.

terms like isolated and scattered or occasional or widespread have a strict meteorological definition

as just posted from very few and far between to a lot of them when the term widespread might be used.

use the NW radar and strike chart; put the upper winds on, 850, 700 and 500mb to give an idea of where any report is likely to travel.

have fun but don't get disappointed if it does not happen just when you want it to-don't 'throw toys out the pram' its not pleasant trawling through posts with ya boo, I've not had one, why not me, this or that forecast centre is rubbish etc.

end of another jh rant, I'll go and do the ironing!

Edited June 29, 2009 by johnholmes

[DAVID SNOW]

Massive explosion of convection here, would expect at least a supercell with F5 twisters in the next 5 minutes. :lol:

Edit.... Just looked again......... only fair weather cumulus,sorry got a bit carried away :lol: :lol:

[Tn9]

massive exposion of energy now ...to my South and East...heading N/E

VERY FAST CONVECTION...turkey towers on and off....eatch time seem to be getting bigger

South Cotsworld direction.....rows of towers

You have some sort of creature in your cloud :lol:

[Andy Bown]

Well those thundery showers were a bit of a surprise late night/early this morning across Devon/Somerset/Bristol area. The first batch missed here by a whisker rain-wise at around 03.00 while the second batch clipped Westbury while giving a 2nd downpour in a few hours just 5 miles away. I think I saw a flash of lightning from very black cloud to the N/NW at about 07.10 as I was leaving Westbury.

Now, with those thundery showers being much heavier than predicted - heavier even than mentioned on the forecast on tv as they were happening (!!) - will there be a chance of those developing tonight into the early hours tomorrow becoming thundery? There must be a chance!

This morning's didn't really kick off until the cloud moved over land, and by tomorrow they'll be moving over a hotter more humid land than this morning.

As an aside : Dogs, your 2nd pic posted at about 13.55 looks like a clenched fist :lol: .

[dogs32]

You have some sort of creature in your cloud :lol:

:lol: ...well if your saw the convection here now you would know the towers are slowly breaking the CAP

[jo200199]

Massive explosion of convection here, would expect at least a supercell with F5 twisters in the next 5 minutes. :lol:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Edit.... Just looked again......... only fair weather cumulus,sorry got a bit carried away :lol: