Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Storm/convective Discussion


Nick F

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Not great chances today peeps.

Here's my risk map:

post-5986-1246281673_thumb.png

Very small chances across the UK (no matter how much heating) but conditions look good for both of the red circles. Pink is general possibility zone.

Sorry guys - if it happens outside of the red areas it will be sporadic, very isolated, and unexpected - no mattter how hot it gets today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
B) ...well if your saw the convection here now you would know the towers are slowly breaking the CAP

At what level is the cap? You can happily convect up to that layer without any visible difference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
At what level is the cap? You can happily convect up to that layer without any visible difference.

the towers here are in there second stage .....Trying to form a anvil....but things changing all the time here...South and East....

Infact they are not realy towers ANYMORE but large Nimbus's forming to my East

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Lol...I am not having pop by any stretch, but I too thought 'slight exaggeration' lol

Some people though, please lighten up - we all get very excited from time to time and tend to get a bit emphatic.

Here are finally, some of the pics I took of the storms over the last fortnight -

The first 3 and final 1 are from the Monday 15th June outbreak over the SE

The others are from this Saturday just gone, with one pic showing the inflow band into the London/NW Kent storm at around 6:30pm

I know its the wrong forum page (apologies) but I thought it was relevant, and also edging on my take on explosive convection (unless you've been abroad) B)

post-3790-1246282275_thumb.jpg

post-3790-1246282290_thumb.jpg

post-3790-1246282309_thumb.jpg

post-3790-1246282406_thumb.jpg

post-3790-1246282420_thumb.jpg

post-3790-1246282433_thumb.jpg

post-3790-1246282457_thumb.jpg

post-3790-1246282602_thumb.jpg

Edited by Harry
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
Hottest day of the year here, 27.2C.

Even though netweather gives me a 71% 61% 76% of storms, i dont hold out much hope B)

My understanding is that those %'s come from the automated forecast from GFS. Unfortunately GFS tends to over-egg the dew points at this time of year (as has been discussed elsewhere), which in turn gives the over-inflated storm chances. I would only trust those figures if the air pressure is much lower than it is currently (1018) and if there is some sort of trigger, which there isn't from what I can see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

Convection has started kicking off here in the last 10mins, was brilliant blue skies with a temp 0f 29.8'c. Now theres big cumulus and towers building rapidly upwards into the sky. Great to watch, put on your sun glasses and observe, expanding and churning as they grow. B)

Edited by SnowJoke
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Muggy here and 26.3C. Mid-level cloud streaming in now from the Southeast. Looks likely to provide some light rain here according to the Netweather radar B)

Infact we are one of the only places in the country at present that is going to get any rain in the next half hour.

Not sure about those "cumulonimbus" clouds where Dogs is. Sat pics and radar look rather uninteresting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

well to me this is massive fast development from

to this

in my book after 35 yrs of watching the clouds I call it fast

Harry I agree...people get argumentative sometimes...people do need to liven up

Edited by dogs32
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

Fingers crossed dogs32, but i have my suspicions that today could well be the day we get unexpected storms. I have this gut feeling looking at the rapidly explosive convection that, wilts / oxon / bucks into berks are going to see todays thundery outbreaks. Another contradiction in the forcasted area predictions.

Edited by SnowJoke
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
well to me this is massive fast development from

to this

in my book after 35 yrs of watching the clouds I call it fast

Harry I agree...people get argumentative sometimes...people do need to liven up

Although there is nothing on the radar much atm, that does not mean the clouds such as yours will not produce..indeed that one does look quite close to giving a heavy shower B)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley
  • Location: Sedgley

throught the haze, many miles to my SSE I can just make out what is probably the same CB Dogs has just posted a pic of, and whilst I can't tell how low the base is it does look quite impressive with hard cauliflower top going up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
throught the haze, many miles to my SSE I can just make out what is probably the same CB Dogs has just posted a pic of, and whilst I can't tell how low the base is it does look quite impressive with hard cauliflower top going up

You can see a long way, must be very clear in Dudley!

Edited by Tonyh
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Although there is nothing on the radar much atm, that does not mean the clouds such as yours will not produce..indeed that one does look quite close to giving a heavy shower B)

yes your correct......things changing all the time on these clouds....one minute trying to form a Anvil the next large nimbus....

Currently heading North I think.....

SnowJoke Im not to worried about today...Just hope over night early Tues we get the thundery Plume

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley
  • Location: Sedgley
You can see a long way, must be very clear in Dudley!

I'm on a second floor flat, and with little cloud in the sky, just some haze its easy to make out larger cloud structures at distance. and its not that far down the M5!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I can see some rain on the radar just of the coast of France. Is this the rain that is supposed to give us storms later?.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

the Cap or lid or inversion, call it what you like would seem to be around 10,000ft according to the 00z ascents.

for it to become Cb it needs to get over 20000ft more probably 25000ft before it starts to glaciate.

In winter obviously this effect occurs with much lower heights.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Metofice upgraded there forecast now saying thunderstorms for southwestern areas early hours of tuesday and i hope this heat and humidity keeps up cause its a good sign.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
SnowJoke Im not to worried about today...Just hope over night early Tues we get the thundery Plume

Im just hoping for something during the late afternoon / evening hours here. Not forcast to get anything from the thundery plume tonight. Allthough I may get a nice long distance lightning show if I pop on over to cambell park the highest point in MK and look out westwards. B)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Right how long before it changes or disapoints us once again so no hopes yet but at least theres a better chance than before im hoping to be sending it to the midlands or to move to SE so at least they need it so do i B)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

its like winning the lottery today....lol...

I wouldnt let it get to you Weathercoxy.....plenty of things happening theis week...

I also find it strange why Sat24 not picking up much...

The clouds here still havent turned into Anvil's

But like I say things changing all the time....

Just put a large cumulus tower on time frame...so hopefully your see later how close they keep getting to a thunderhead

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chard, South Somerset
  • Location: Chard, South Somerset

Well some RF now appearing jut off the coast of Brest/France, and Im wondering if this could be the start of the possible 'plume' overnight for the SW?

Edited by tornadomanuk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

What are the chances of anything occuring tonight this way, 41% chance around 7pm apparently (I know... I'm getting desperate) :rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
What are the chances of anything occuring tonight this way, 41% chance around 7pm apparently (I know... I'm getting desperate) :rolleyes:

realistically=nil

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...