Heatwave

[kold weather]

Given the model thread is starting to get rather cluttered with stuff about this heatwave I think its an idea to make a new thread about this heatwave.

So post your feelings and views, will we make 30C, or even higher then that???

My personal gut feeling is yes. Top temp so far at 11 was 27.1C so another 2.9C to climb over the next few hours. Thickness climbs a ittle further again between Tuesday and Wednesday so even if we do just miss today I think odds are very short on getting a 30C this week.

[johnholmes]

as I've posted on another thread

IF you have clear skies, other than patchy amounts of cloud, then take the neatest skew-t to you, plot the dry adiabat down from the dry bulb temperature at 850mb and you won't be far out for the max temperature.

In some cases a super adiabat is set up in the bottom 30mb, perhaps add 3C on that case?

[chionomaniac]

Charlwood up to 27.1C at 11.00....just 2.9C to reach the magical 30C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/obs...ions/index.html

repeated KW post oops though I am on an hourly watch. A few also into the 26's!

Edited June 29, 2009 by chionomaniac

[Iceberg]

Heathrow now at 28C with a drier DP of 12C a couple of degree's drier than surrounding stations.

I am not sure whether this figure is rounded up or down though.

[hotsummer]

30c, not today, MAYBE tomorrow....

[J07]

A little surprised by how low the dewpoints are at the moment. 28/13 is fairly dry.

[Scorcher]

Iceberg it's not 100% certain that 30C will be reached today but I don't think I would take your odds of 50/50! Regardless of whether that 28C has been rounded up or down it's got to be at least 27.5C and with several hours of heating to go and plenty of sunshine that temperature is only going to go one way. Even in my area it's far sunnier than I expected and we have already reached 26C so I think 29C is a possibility even here.

A little surprised by how low the dewpoints are at the moment. 28/13 is fairly dry.

Yes lower than I expected as well, dew point here is 14C but I guess it could rise through the day. Still feels a lot more humid than previous hot spells and there is very little wind.

[johnholmes]

Heathrow now at 28C with a drier DP of 12C a couple of degree's drier than surrounding stations.

I am not sure whether this figure is rounded up or down though.

Met O temps and dewpoints are ALWAYS rounded to the ODD number

[Iceberg]

Dp's are the key they are progged to be around 14/15C and are for most of the SE, but pockets of drier air (maybe due to urbanisation) are evident around London this will allow more heating.

Add to the above the effect of any temp/diff breeze which might prevent temps from rising much more than they are.

I am not trying to be a downer but if every post was purely that temps would easily reach 30C it would be boring

There is nothing easy about reaching 30C with 850's of only 12/13C.

Still only a few hours to find out.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

XC Weather has the East Midlands at 21oC Temps and 17oC dew points.

Temp seems about right.

[johnholmes]

Dp's are the key they are progged to be around 14/15C and are for most of the SE, but pockets of drier air (maybe due to urbanisation) are evident around London this will allow more heating.

Add to the above the effect of any temp/diff breeze which might prevent temps from rising much more than they are.

I am not trying to be a downer but if every post was purely that temps would easily reach 30C it would be boring

There is nothing easy about reaching 30C with 850's of only 12/13C.

Still only a few hours to find out.

the actual 850mb T and Td at Herstmanceux at 00z are below

850.00 11.80 1.80

this would give 28-29C in whole numbers as a dry adiabat down to the surface

add perhaps 2C+ for super adiabat at the bottom and that gives 30-31C max for the SE area

London of course as a heat island be it Heathrow or more likely London city airport or the city itself could be a couple higher than that so don't be surprised IF that area gets maximum sunshine with no cloud obscuring the sun to see 31C.

Edited June 29, 2009 by johnholmes

[SussexmarkyMark]

Charlwood now at 28.7c. I think 30c is almost certain for today

[kold weather]

Yep John that would be my my max temp value at least for today, thats probably the top limit, though 29-30C seems a more likely top point for today.

conditions only warm over the next 48-72hrs so even if we miss it today I'd bet on Tuesday onwards making it.

Yep 28.7C, so should breach 30C today as expected.

Edited June 29, 2009 by kold weather

[Upgrade]

Its clearly going to breach 30 degrees today. There's about another 4 hours of heating at this time of the year - max temps are sometimes up to 5pm , partic in London.

[Coast]

The cool coastal breeze is keeping Eastbourne down to 23.4 DgC so far today. I wouldn't mind betting that a little further North, maybe Crawley, will see 30 DgC before the week is out.

[SunnySouthCoast]

I think 31C will be reached today south west of London...

And 33C will be reached later in the week

[hotsummer]

London Heathrow station is now reporting 29c, more cloud about though. So what happens from here is to be seen....

[Marcus_surfer]

No heatwave here, infact it looks very wet here for much of this week with temperatures barely getting over about 25C

Edited June 29, 2009 by Marcus_surfer

[TEITS]

Currently 26C here at the moment.

The peak of this heatwave could well be friday with temps reaching 32/33C in the SE. However alot depends on the timing of the developing storms that will move E during the day. Based on the models im fully expecting this to go bang with a cooler, fresher weekend following.

29C now being reported at Heathrow at 12.30pm.

Edited June 29, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[MR EXTREMES]

yes i agree now the sun has burnt through here,

and although it was muggy its getting pretty hot now as for my 28c to 29c just posted on model forum well i think im will be a few c of the mark.

to be honest 32c to 33c or higher is now very possible.

because im roasting

although the sun newspaper report on this heatwave is ofcoarse very silly indeed with 39c lol i hope not :lol: :o

Edited June 29, 2009 by badboy657

[Great Plum]

I have to say, the temps around Reigate are getting pretty hot now - if onlt it wasn't so humid... just walking dwon the street brings me out in a sweat (and no, I'm not that unfit!)

[kold weather]

30C is pretty much a certainty now based on the latest temps coming out, 31C isn't out of the question either today it seems but for now shouldn't go any higher.

Friday could well be the hottest day of the week but much depends as has been said on the timing of the frontal system as it comes eastwards. Either way Wednesday and Thursday should both go close to 32C.

[Wynn D Woo]

Must be absolutely certain to reach the first official 30C for over 2 years, 27.1C here currently so our warmest day this year so far.

[cobbettp]

Current Temperature @ 1.10pm - 26.5c

[*Stormforce~beka*]

27.7c here. I'm baking ... humidity not much of an issue though only at 56%