Model Output Discussion

[shuggee]

Commentary and opinion on the latest model outputs here please :lol:

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

A few more days at least of the current warmth, but looking like cooling down to perhaps something more seasonal.

Whilst probably being around average (perhaps slightly below in terms of max temps, it will be quite a change in the feeling outside.

Just going to have a peek at the ppn...

Air pressure, on the GEFS, doesnt look like dropping too much (perhaps around 10mb), so potentially staying somewhat settled, and in the sunshine, things we still feel very pleasent indeed.

PPN looks like increasing in chance, but nothing too major to be signified.

However, based on recent performance of the GEFS for around here at least, certainly one to be taken with a pinch of salt at the moment.

Overall, cooling down, but looking to stay somewhat pleasent.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[TEITS]

Overall, cooling down, but looking to stay somewhat pleasent.

Good summary.

Looks like the heat in the SE will gradually fade in the SE/E Anglia rather than a drop of 10C within 24hrs. Still could be experiencing mid 70s on Saturday before dropping to around 70F into next week.

Like you say beyond it looks cooler, showery but the temps will remain pleasant. That is the good thing about this time of year because despite a cool airmass temps can easily reach 21C with sunny spells. Taking into account all the model output over the past few days and this pattern could remain for a couple of weeks but IMO there are signs of a return to much warmer weather from mid July onwards.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I think that on 3-5 July, even though there will be an increasing number of showers around, there should be a fair amount of sunshine in between - that is often the case in cyclonic setups with a slow Atlantic. In the sunshine it should still feel quite warm for many. I still suspect there will be rather more cloud around from the 6th onwards, but that's only just sneaking into the reliable timeframe.

[londonsnow]

carol k on breakfast mentioned a possible tornado last night in association with some nasty storms in cumbria, lancs and other parts on the NW of england. cant find any info/confirmation for this. anyone heard anything? pleasantly cool, cloudy start here in london, which won't last long, and another storm free day in ther offing. now all eyes on the the architecture of the breakdown and i suspect a very busy 48 hrs on the forum.

OOPs sorry, thought i was in convective discussion. move it mods if you want

Edited July 1, 2009 by londonsnow

[mushymanrob]

bah... had updates installed yesterday and now i cant view the charts.... any help please? (they wont load yet everything else works great) sorry off topic. thanks.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Morning Rob.

GEFS Selection this morning:

[The PIT]

Thankfully this rubbish spell of weather is on it's way out but taking a very long time to go. FI land shows the altlanic in control just outside the reliable time frame just after a nice refreshing blast of cooler northlies.

[Thundery wintry showers]

One notable factor is that the theme of "continued chance of convective storms" continues to extend to the back end of the reliable timeframe. Hot and humid with thundery outbreaks becomes replaced with sunshine and showers, and it does look like there might be a fair amount of sunshine in between the showers, which could generate a fair amount of homegrown convection.

[William of Walworth]

Liking the signs on these latest projections that we seem likely to retain very reasonable levels of sunshine into the weekend, and 21C will feel pretty warm in strong sun. Weekend showers most likely to be hit and miss rather than certainties, even in the West -- we'll be in North Devon for a small post Glastonbury restful party (open air) from Friday to Sunday, and we'd happily settle for the odd shower so long as the sun comes out plenty too.

Not too bad at all on latest output -- as 'breakdowns' to a very warm spell go, this one seems likely to be fairly benign for many.

beyond it looks cooler, showery but the temps will remain pleasant. That is the good thing about this time of year because despite a cool airmass temps can easily reach 21C with sunny spells. Taking into account all the model output over the past few days and this pattern could remain for a couple of weeks but IMO there are signs of a return to much warmer weather from mid July onwards.

Nice one if that verifies, that would be consistent with GP's recent predictions for later July too. The PIT's mention above of 'FI land shows the atlantic in control just outside the reliable time frame' may (hopefully!) prove shortlived.

Edited July 1, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Eugene]

Not liking the models today or the ensemble, there is pretty strong agreement on a big cool down next week, not a continuation of the hot spell or even a very warm spell :lol:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[William of Walworth]

No-one would deny that there'll be a cool down next week. How long it lasts very open to question though.

[Frosty.]

The charts next week look autumnal with a showery NW'ly airflow only slowly giving way as a ridge builds across the south. The current heat and humidity will last until the weekend but then disappear as it turns more unsettled everywhere with cyclonic winds becoming NW'ly as low pressure across the north pushes north east towards Norway. The GFS 06z in deeper FI looks very disappointing with atlantic lows sweeping bands of rain and some windy weather across the uk mid July but with high pressure over mainland europe making southern and eastern england somewhat drier but this excellent hot spell does not look like being repeated for some considerable time.

[mushymanrob]

only an idiot would think that this hot spell would last, as there was never any indication that it would.

but who cares? its the best hot spell for 3 years and the thermometer is just shy of 30c :lol:

[Rob]

i'm hoping this cool down will be short lived, ive got a feeling by this time next week we could be building up to another warm/hot spell. Well thats what i'm hoping any way :lol:

[TEITS]

only an idiot would think that this hot spell would last, as there was never any indication that it would.

but who cares? its the best hot spell for 3 years and the thermometer is just shy of 30c :lol:

Indeed Mushy as the breakdown has been projected for some time. Only the detail of how this heatwave would breakdown has been uncertain.

We need to remember its only the 1st of July and we still have 4 weeks left before we hit peak summer. Always difficult to maintain these temps as summers like 1976 are most certainly the exception to the rule. Anyway why worry about the cooler spell when you can be out enjoying all this lovely hot sunshine.

Still think we will only have to wait around 2 weeks before the heat returns.

[The Eagle]

Looks like some very heavy rain tomorrow on this side of the Irish Sea and Southwest Britain. If you are in an area prone to flooding now may be the time to prepare!

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U18-594.GIF?01-18

[Thundery wintry showers]

The charts next week look autumnal with a showery NW'ly airflow only slowly giving way as a ridge builds across the south.

Autumnal? I think of autumnal as meaning a continued succession of Atlantic weather systems bringing belts of rain in, like the pattern that dominated July 1988. The weather following the breakdown looks more like a warm version of Spring than anything else- low pressure slowly drifting east and filling, bringing dry bright mornings and showery afternoons.

We could end up in an unsettled Atlantic-driven regime after the low finally drifts away and the high pressure ridges to our south, but it is still too far out to have any real certainty. I still think the high pressure might build to the east and south again following the week or so of showery weather, deflecting the jet northwards.

[johnholmes]

The charts next week look autumnal with a showery NW'ly airflow only slowly giving way as a ridge builds across the south. The current heat and humidity will last until the weekend but then disappear as it turns more unsettled everywhere with cyclonic winds becoming NW'ly as low pressure across the north pushes north east towards Norway. The GFS 06z in deeper FI looks very disappointing with atlantic lows sweeping bands of rain and some windy weather across the uk mid July but with high pressure over mainland europe making southern and eastern england somewhat drier but this excellent hot spell does not look like being repeated for some considerable time.

I have to smile at autumnal Frosty?

autumnal and one THINKS, I would have thought, of shortening days, leaves changing colour, temps, for here, around 15C at best in October afternoons.

yes you are correct in a flow from a cooler direction and rather unsettled at least for a few days.

As to when we get another longish dry spell I suspect it will be before 'some considerable time', perhaps as early as mid July leading towards the end?

perhaps that could be classed as 'some considerable time'?

[PB22]

Certainly a change in the offering for the weekend and beyond. Some eastern coastal areas will actually turn a bit warmer(!), but for the majority it will turn a lot cooler and there looks like there will be the potential for some heavy showers again next week with low pressure the main player:

GFS: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

ECM: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

UKMO: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

Although the UKMO 12z does give some hope in high pressure trying to rebuild by the middle of next week:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

And the GFS ensembles don't look particularly wet Manchester aside:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Interesting 850 ens for Ankara :lol:

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens..../t850Ankara.png

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

just looked here could get a bit wet after Friday and for much of next week were did i put my brolly!!!!!!!!!!!

[PB22]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

just looked here could get a bit wet after Friday and for much of next week were did i put my brolly!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't think there will be much rain here over the coming days Norman:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs120sum.html

Mainly a showery set up next week, so hit and miss with some places further north and west seeing a fair bit, and the south and east always likely to be driest and warmest. :lol:

[PB22]

Eastern areas of England could still see another very warm or hot day on Friday IMO with temperatures close to 30C. Tonight's models have slowed the eastward progression of the cold front somewhat and I wouldn't be surprised if that trend continued tomorrow:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1a.html

[damianslaw]

Fresher conditions will descend all this weekend, with a breakdown to 'atlantic' air. The breakdown itself is looking a fairly benign affair, I would expect weather advisories at this stage if the Met believed that the fronts crashing through will deliver heavy potent rain but at this stage they don't. Some parts will see local deluges on Friday but the front seems to want to rush trhough quite quickly.

A showery weekend in the main, average or slightly above average temps for most and plenty of sunshine, all in all not a bad weekend, but yes not ideal if you want blue sky and guaranteed settled dry weather.

Into next week, much coller, generally unsettled winds from a west or north west quadrant, plenty of sunny spells especially in the south and east more cloudier further north you go.

Signs of becoming locked into a 'westerly' spell of weather from there on with the jet becoming rather flat, interesting to see how quick northern heights are going to make their presence felt again, next week sees a real arctic high beauty, why can't this happen in the depths of winter!