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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

The cooler and more changeable theme is very much evident in tonight's output.

GFS 12Z:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

Pressure does build in again later next week though:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

However FI is very changeable:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2401.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2881.html

UKMO 12z so far:

T+96: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW96-21.GIF?02-19

So a change certainly from recent days, but given that we still have most of July and all of August to go then the odds are certainly in favour of another hot spell developing at some stage - and it may be sooner than we think.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

no need to panic weathers has been lovely normal to have week of hot then cooler,

heat be back in a week or 2 :lol: :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Not surprised that some doom forecasters have returned predicting a wash out for the rest of summer, seriously, it is only the very beginning of July, and we still have 2 or possibly even 3 months of potentially good weather to come. Next week does look cooler, but this is typical British weather - hot one week then cool the next. A few weeks ago many people were writing of summer, then look what showed up, a glorious week for most with hot temperatures for many.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
A few weeks ago many people were writing of summer, then look what showed up, a glorious week for most with hot temperatures for many.

no they werent, i was concerned at the begining of june that synoptically similar charts to that of the past 2 summers might have lead to a third washout summer. under those circumstances it wasnt so unreasonable.

as to the rest of this summer, personally id go along with what glacier point and chionomaniac (sp? sorry) are suggesting as they (and others) got this hot spell bang on weeks ahead of anything appearing on any output.

as i understand it, there is a fairly good chance of a return to the heat later this month and into august where records might be broken. (according to what they have said recently). atm its only a possibility, but thats better then 'no sign' .

meanwhile the runs are looking fairly typical for a british summer, so not the washout of recent summers but no quick return to heat.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
no they werent, i was concerned at the begining of june that synoptically similar charts to that of the past 2 summers might have lead to a third washout summer. under those circumstances it wasnt so unreasonable.

as to the rest of this summer, personally id go along with what glacier point and chionomaniac (sp? sorry) are suggesting as they (and others) got this hot spell bang on weeks ahead of anything appearing on any output.

as i understand it, there is a fairly good chance of a return to the heat later this month and into august where records might be broken. (according to what they have said recently). atm its only a possibility, but thats better then 'no sign' .

meanwhile the runs are looking fairly typical for a british summer, so not the washout of recent summers but no quick return to heat.

I didn't say that everyone was writing off summer, I always believed what GP and Chion said about the current hot spell would come true, but many people were saying how it was going to end up like the last 2 summers e.t.c. Anyway This does not matter as I do not want to cause arguments :)

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
It's been a 60s style summer after a 60s style winter.

...so far but the modern summer of heat could well be back with vengeance.

Oh no, now we have a modern summer as well as winter! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
Oh no, now we have a modern summer as well as winter! :lol:

Don't forget the modern autum too :D

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

not likely to have a record breaking summer but another hot spell will happen sooner or later just a typical good old british summer.

to follow our good old british winter :lol:

all aboard the model roller coaster ha ha

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Don't forget the modern autum too :lol:

Or the Modern Spring! :D

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Well in a way I can see Eugene's point about the current hot spell being a "fluke." This hot spell has seen a lot of northern blocking and yes, if the jet stream had been stronger we would probably have been looking at slow moving, southerly tracking lows giving the UK a soaking. But then again, all the hottest summers tend to have a good deal of nothern blocking, so you might as well say all our hot summers are "flukes" which I suppose in a way they are. But this surely, is what makes the weather such a mystery.

Edited by Gavin P
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Guest Mike W

I thought the 1960's summers never managed 30 C, this years summer has done that this past week in the east I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
Well in a way I can see Eugene's point about the current hot spell being a "fluke." This hot spell has seen a lot of northern blocking and yes, if the jet stream had been stronger we would probably have been looking at slow moving, southerly tracking lows giving the UK a soaking. But then again, all the hottest summers tend to have a good deal of nothern blocking, so you might as well say all our hot summers are "flukes" which I suppose in a way they are. But this surely, is what makes the weather such a mystery.

These heatwaves happen a bit too frequently though for them to be considered flukes IMO. I've lived in the UK since 1997 and I would say that on average we get a spell like this past week at least once in every 3 summers.

Who knows whether there will be another hot spell to come in this Summer. If we do would people start to consider this year on a par with 2003 and 2006?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
I thought the 1960's summers never managed 30 C, this years summer has done that this past week in the east I think.

Hi Mike,

I think I recall 33C in London in 1968??? But mostly, apart from that, all I remember is rain, the tail-end of Hurricane Betsy and various other grottinesses... :wub:

Mr Data?? :D

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
I thought the 1960's summers never managed 30 C, this years summer has done that this past week in the east I think.

I moved to Scotland as a child from Hertfordshire in the August of 1961 and the temperature was over 90f as our last whole night in England was a sleepless one. The next night we took the sleeper to Scotland and getting off the train at about 7.00am in a cool Aviemore was bliss.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
I moved to Scotland as a child from Hertfordshire in the August of 1961 and the temperature was over 90f as our last whole night in England was a sleepless one. The next night we took the sleeper to Scotland and getting off the train at about 7.00am in a cool Aviemore was bliss.

You beat me by 28 years, NL! :D

PS: 27 years!

Edited by Pete Tattum
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
These heatwaves happen a bit too frequently though for them to be considered flukes IMO. I've lived in the UK since 1997 and I would say that on average we get a spell like this past week at least once in every 3 summers.

Who knows whether there will be another hot spell to come in this Summer. If we do would people start to consider this year on a par with 2003 and 2006?

Interesting thiing about 2006 as I recall it was that the "gloriousness@ of the summer was from June through to about the third week of July but other than that period it was pretty ordinary. Now I'm not saying that it doesn't qualify as a great summer on that account, but for those of us with kids who took their holidays to coincide with the school holidays, it happened to be a period that coincided with the very end of half term and the very beginning of the school holidays, so the chances to enjoy it were pretty limited...instead there was lots of travelling on hot overcrowded sweaty trains!

Personally I'd prefer a cool summer with the odd good day for a bbq...but if I wasn't some pounds heavier than I ought to be I might think otherwise! :D

Typical of any time this summer could go down three paths from here.... the great, the average and the poor....or more likely skip between the three of them from week to week. You have to agree with those who say there's plenty of opportunities left for summer to present itself as hot and sunny...but also it's not out of the reckoning that bar the odd day or two, we won't get a sustained period of heat like we've just enjoyed....or should I say endured!

My summer's going a bit crazy at the moment and this week sums it up. Last weekend I went camping for the first time ever along with my son and loads of Beavers, Cubs and Scouts. We ended up having over four hours of continuous heavy rain. Then the glorious week arrived, but despite having been on garden leave from my old job, of all weeks i ended up having a series of meetings this week to do with the job I'm going to which neccessitated me travelling upto town on overcrowed trains and needing to wear a suit and tie! I'm not needed tomorrow so guess what....I'm going camping again , this time with the family. But guess what? Rain is once again forecast.

I am doomed to stay tan free!

Personally my inexperienced and non-knowledgeable take on what the rest of summer has lined up is that is will be nothing special, in either a good way or a bad way, but will offer the occasional tantalising prospects of hot sunny periods which never quite materialise in the way many would hope for. The one thing I do think is that while we may be set up for is some pretty spectacular things in the shape of thunderstorms for a few days from about the 5th to 9th August, disappointingly from my perspective, I don't see storms otherwise playing a big part.

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Looking to the future I certainly don't believe that we have seen the end of summer yet. The difficulty is in predicting when more settled and warm conditions will return, but they in all probability will and I have a suspicion that we may have not too long to wait.

The MJO is currently still in a low amplitude phase with forecasts suggesting that we may we re-enter phase 1:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m...Last40days.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...EFS_membera.gif

This forecast has been consistent over the last week and the MJO July phase 1 500hPa anomaly charts are consistent with the current breakdown over the next few days. The MJO forecast is linked to a tropical pulse of convection travelling eastwards. If the current MJO forecast for tropical convection in the Indian Ocean is overestimated, and the tropical convection in the Pacific Ocean around the dateline increases significantly due to the strengthening el nino, then we could potentially see the MJO not returning to phase 1 and orbiting far quicker than forecast. It is this scenario that I believe GP considers a possibility and this could open the door to a second potential heatwave later on this summer. All "ifs and buts" at present but one that needs to be kept an eye on.

Even if this doesn't occur there is still a high chance that we could have a situation of a migrating Azores high building over the UK, rather as the 12Z GFS suggests, with some pleasant warm weather followed by the cooler Atlantic SST's trying to create a trough in the Atlantic and then see where we are from there.

Either way I don't see an end to summer the way things stand at the moment.

c

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Very interesting Chion, I am fascinated by your posts and GP's as well, they seem to be very accurate as I believe you and GP predicted this current hot spell a few weeks ago. :)

This current mini heatwave cannot be compared with 2006 at the moment.. These mini heatwaves are not too rare, we usually get a mini heatwave every year that lasts a couple of days, it's just that this one lasted for quite a while. What was fascinating about 2006 was that it lasted for several weeks and gave us temps of 35C+, 2003 gave us a shorter spell but with very high temps.

It would probably take a long spell of hot weather for this summer to be compared with 2006 or 2003.. but who knows :D

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Very interesting Chion, I am fascinated by your posts and GP's as well, they seem to be very accurate as I believe you and GP predicted this current hot spell a few weeks ago. :)

ill second that! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Inetersting 00Z; everything seems to lose its identity with winds being 'mostly' quite light, and temps at or just above average...I'm no forecaster but, with slack pressure gradients for much of the time, I see potential for warm sunshine and some (hopefully thundery) showers at times; and if it should be cloudy, nighttime temperatures could average quite high...So much for that. B) B)

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Looking to the future I certainly don't believe that we have seen the end of summer yet.

Either way I don't see an end to summer the way things stand at the moment.

c

It's the 3rd of July, I would have thought that was obvious.

We didn't even reach mid Summer yet B)

Is is spring or autumn?? Neither it's blady Summer in the UK B)

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Posted
  • Location: Near Darlington
  • Location: Near Darlington
I cant see why people are thinking summer is over because this spell of hot weather is nearly over. This is classic british weather and how can you write off summer when there is another 2 months to go!

I agree. Those comments just obscure those which are relevant and possibly interesting.

no they werent, i was concerned at the begining of june that synoptically similar charts to that of the past 2 summers might have lead to a third washout summer. under those circumstances it wasnt so unreasonable.

Yes it is (unreasonable).

You naysayers just put everyone on a downer.

You CANNOT predict a full seasons weather in advance. Even the met office with their reources can't.

I think you amatuers should stick to short term discussion.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Different run, different outlook; and not looking good up here for quite a while. Anyway, time will tell! :doh:

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