The Ashes 2009 Weather Forecasting Competition

[J10]

The Ashes Weather Forecasting Competition makes a return this year.

The First Test is in Cardiff starting on the 8th July and scheduled to run to the 12th July.

This year the competition is in 2 parts,

The first part is to guess the maximum temperature at the nearby weather station for each of the 5 days (regardless of how long the test lasts), this is taken at being the St Athan air base.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/...st_weather.html Note this is out of town so temps here tend to be a little less than in the Centre of Cardiff.

The 2nd part of the competition this year is to estimate the total time lost in minutes for the duration of the test match due to bad weather, this only applies to scheduled sessions. In total in each test match, there are 1800 minutes or 30 hours of play scheduled. In the event of the test finishing early due to a victory for either side, then no further time will count.

Points Scoring

Temperatures - A Maximum score of 10pts for getting the temp spot on per day, dropping of 1 pt for every degree out. This gives a maximum of 50pts.

Bad Weather - A Maximum score of 50pts for getting within 15 minutes, dropping off a point for every subsequent 15 minutes out. So you will get points if you are within approximately 2 days of the actual outcome.

The deadline for entries i s at 10.59am on Wednesday Morning, all entries after this will not count, however you are able to change your entry before the deadline if you so wish and there is no limit to this.

Any queries please let me know before the competition starts and I am intending to do an average score across the series for players who enter 3 or more tests.

Good luck to all entrants

In the 2006-07 comp, Nick H won from JACKONE and Supercell

SAMPLE ENTRY

Day 1 = 17c

Day 2 = 15c

Day 3 = 17c

Day 4 = 15c

Day 5 = 17c

Play Lost 180 minutes

[J10]

My go

Day 1 19c

Day 2 16c

Day 3 18c

Day 4 19c

Day 5 20c

Time Lost 240 Minutes (over 5 days)

[chionomaniac]

I might change this tomorrow, but here goes:

Wed 19ºC

Thurs 17ºC

Fri 19ºC

Sat 19ºc

Sun 20ºC

Lost time depends upon whether it goes the distance! If the game ends by Saturday then we could lose less than an hour but if it enters Sunday then we could potentially lose the whole days play.

I will go for 360 hours gambling on the Sunday being lost to rain and a draw being called early.

PS thanks Jackone.

[Koppite]

I'll give it a go,

Day 1 Wed - 17C

Day 2 Thurs - 17C

Day 3 Fri - 18C

Day 4 Sat - 20C

Day 5 Sun - 20C

Total minutes lost over the 5 days = 205.

Cheers Russ.

(Thanks JACKONE.)

[Mark H]

Day 1 16.5c

Day 2 16.0c

Day 3 17.0c

Day 4 17.5c

Day 5 19.5c

Time lost 120 minutes.

Thanks for running this J1.

[J10]

Points Scoring

Bad Weather - A Maximum score of 50pts for getting within 15 minutes, dropping off a point for every subsequent 15 minutes out. So you will get points if you are within approximately 2 days of the actual outcome.

Please note the above, it should have read 1 pt loss for every 15 minutes as is now stated.

[davehsug]

Okeley Dokeley I'll have a go.

1. 18c

2. 17c

3. 19c

4. 20c

5. 21c

Total time lost 195 mins

Dave

[Wales123098]

Weather for Cardiff Ashes Test 2009

day 1 - 18c

day 2 - 17c

day 3 - 19c

day 4 - 20c

day 5 - 19.5c

lost play - 182minuites.

[Scorcher]

Day 1: 18C

Day 2: 17C

Day 3: 19C

Day 4: 20C

Day 5: 20C

Play Lost: 175 mins

[GRHinPorts]

Day 1 - 19C

Day 2 - 19C

Day 3- 18C

Day 4 - 20C

Day 5 - 21C

Time lost: 185 minutes

Just a query with the time lost for bad weather. Given within the cricketing regulations there is the capacity to "make-up" time lost by playing later into the evening: Are we talking about the amount of time that play is stopped for OR the amount of time lost out of the match.

I imagine that we are talking about the former but if say it rained for 90 minutes in the morning session and then played continued for an hour later into the evening the various match reports would say only 30 minutes play was actually lost. So I think we just need this clarified.

[Roger J Smith]

Day one ... 16 C

Day two ... 17 C

Day three ... 21 C

Day four ... 23 C

Day five ... 21 C

a total of 240 minutes lost (perhaps you can clarify for a newbie, if they have to delay play then resume but still get in the full six hours, does that count as zero or the amount of the delay? ... I might change my answer depending).

[Methuselah]

Day one ... 17 C

Day two ... 17 C

Day three ..21 C

Day four ... 22 C

Day five ... 21 C

And, total of 210 minutes lost to either rain or bad light...

At least one need not worry about the Duckworth-Lewis method.

PS: For newbies, that's not a means of producing baby boys! :winky:

[Andy Bown]

Day 1 = 20c

Day 2 = 21c

Day 3 = 21c

Day 4 = 18c

Day 5 = 18c

Time lost = 300 mins

[J10]

Day 1 - 19C

Day 2 - 19C

Day 3- 18C

Day 4 - 20C

Day 5 - 21C

Time lost: 185 minutes

Just a query with the time lost for bad weather. Given within the cricketing regulations there is the capacity to "make-up" time lost by playing later into the evening: Are we talking about the amount of time that play is stopped for OR the amount of time lost out of the match.

I imagine that we are talking about the former but if say it rained for 90 minutes in the morning session and then played continued for an hour later into the evening the various match reports would say only 30 minutes play was actually lost. So I think we just need this clarified.

It is the total session time lost, any time made up is not relevant for this purpose.

[GRHinPorts]

It is the total session time lost, any time made up is not relevant for this purpose.

Thanks Jack...I'm happy with my guess but just wanted to be clear.

[chionomaniac]

I might change this tomorrow, but here goes:

Wed 19ºC

Thurs 17ºC

Fri 19ºC

Sat 19ºc

Sun 20ºC

Lost time depends upon whether it goes the distance! If the game ends by Saturday then we could lose less than an hour but if it enters Sunday then we could potentially lose the whole days play.

I will go for 360 hours gambling on the Sunday being lost to rain and a draw being called early.

PS thanks Jackone.

Time for a change

Wed 18ºC

Thurs 17ºC

Fri 18ºC

Sat 18ºc

Sun 21ºC

300 minutes (not hours as I previously put) lost

c

[Roger J Smith]

Who is playing who(m) ?

I ask this, because there is not a ghost of a chance of finding out otherwise.

Any time left over on our sports TV will have to go towards cars crashing into one another, or ladies wrestling, or my all time favourite, men sawing logs, or ten-pin bowling, or parachute bike racing (yes, really, these are sports on TV here, well I made one up).

[Nick H]

Who is playing who(m) ?

I ask this, because there is not a ghost of a chance of finding out otherwise.

Any time left over on our sports TV will have to go towards cars crashing into one another, or ladies wrestling, or my all time favourite, men sawing logs, or ten-pin bowling, or parachute bike racing (yes, really, these are sports on TV here, well I made one up).

England are playing Australia at cricket.

[J10]

Final Bump for this.

The deadline for entries is at 10.59am on Wednesday Morning, all entries after this will not count, however you are able to change your entry before the deadline if you so wish and there is no limit to this.

[chionomaniac]

Time for a change

Wed 18ºC

Thurs 17ºC

Fri 18ºC

Sat 18ºc

Sun 21ºC

300 minutes (not hours as I previously put) lost

c

Last change

Wed 19ºC

Thurs 18ºC

Fri 19ºC

Sat 19ºc

Sun 21ºC

Mins lost 420

[A.J]

Wed 20C

thurs 20C

friday 18C

sat 18C

sun 19C

time lost 310 mins

[Tom Quintavalle]

Nice idea Jackone. Right lets throw my hat into the ring.

Day 1 - 18c

Day 2 - 18c

Day 3 - 19c

Day 4 - 18c

Day 5 - 20c

Total time lost - 280 mins.

Any chance of doing one for the Open golf at Turnberry, Ayrshire from 16th - 19th July.

Say predicting again, highest temp, max wind speed and rainfall at nearest recording station. Its a fun way of incorporating 2 of my favourite hobbies,

i.e sport and weather. Which no doubt is the same for a lot of us on Netweather.

I run a lot of fantasy competitions for our office (I work for a Credit Boookmakers), and a lot of my colleagues are sports fanatics. The competitions are mainly football (World Cups, Euro Championships and Champions League), Golf (US Masters, The Open), Racing (Cheltenham).

Just about to run one for The Open Championship at Turnberry.

Regards,

Tom

[J10]

For the first 2 days, no play lost so far, Temps Day 1 Max =18c, Day 2 Max = 17c.

So Daveshug has made a good start.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Who is playing who(m) ?

I ask this, because there is not a ghost of a chance of finding out otherwise.

Any time left over on our sports TV will have to go towards cars crashing into one another, or ladies wrestling, or my all time favourite, men sawing logs, or ten-pin bowling, or parachute bike racing (yes, really, these are sports on TV here, well I made one up).

Is Canadian TV really like that ?

[Andy Bown]

I think most people were looking at tomorrow for all the rain delays but there's been half an hour lost already thanks to rain this afternoon.