Tropical Storm Blanca

[Somerset Squall]

94E put on a rapid spurt of organisation this afternoon and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Blanca. The reason for the upgrade is clear if you look at satellite imagery; convection has increased dramtically over the LLC and tightly wrapped banding features are spiralling around this strong circulation. Intensity is at 40kts. For now, Blanca is in a favourable environment with sea temps in excess of 28C and some low shear in the area. Based on the healthy appearance of the storm, and the good conditions, Blanca has the potential to rapidly strengthen over the next 24hrs before waters rapidly cool on the westwards track. A ridge to the north will keep Blanca on a mainly westward heading towards the cooler waters. Blanca has a shot at hurricane status I reckon, although the official forecast is sating 55kts for the peak intensity of the storm. Blanca will probably not effect land as it distances itself from Mexico.

[Cookie]

like you say it got going very fast!

looking nice, all the waiting for the next system was worth it to see this

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Blanca has taken a more northwesterly heading today, and this motion is taking the storm over waters below 26C now. In addition, easterly shear is increasing and Blanca is pulling in some dry, stable air located west of the LLC. The combination of these factors has caused convection to decrease quite a lot over the last several hours, with most convection confined to a band southeast of the centre and only small flare-ups over the centre itself. After peaking at 45kts this morning, Blanca is now a 40kt tropical storm. Blanca will continue to weaken and is forecast to degnerate into a remnant low by 48hrs time, perhaps sooner.

[Cookie]

yup its not looking as good.

[Somerset Squall]

The exposed LLC in that image looks looks great though! Intensity now down to 35kts. Blanca will very soon be downgraded to a tropical depression at this rate.

[Cookie]

now a tropical depression

[Somerset Squall]

Blanca is hanging on in there. Convection has flared again around the LLC, delaying degeneration into a remnant low. This is quite surprising given that Blanca is over waters of around 22C and is ingesting large amounts of dry, stable air. Blanca is veering towards the west now as the system is much shallower and therefore is responding to steering at the lower levels. With the continued unfavourable conditions, Blanca's final hours are numbered.